Lech Poznan 2–2 Wisla Plock — pre-match prediction — Ekstraklasa — May 23, 2026

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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 34 May 23, 2026 17:30

Lech Poznan

#12 · 0 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Wisla Plock

#8 · 0 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Lech Poznan, result Draw

L. Palma 30'

P. Walemark (ast. M. Gurgul) 59'

48' (ast. M. Djalo) Z. Rogelj

90'+5 (ast. G. Niarchos) M. Kaminski

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lech Poznan a 79% win probability (draw 12%, Wisla Plock 8%). The final result was Lech Poznan 2–2 Wisla Plock. In 1 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Wisla Plock.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.23

Actual xG

3.24

Saves

68%

Possession

32%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽L. Palma

30'

46'

D. Sarapata / D. Kun ↕

46'

G. Niarchos / S. Hamulic ↕

48'

ast. M. Djalo · Z. Rogelj⚽

M. Skrzypczak

55'

↕ A. Kozubal / R. Murawski

56'

↕ P. Rodriguez / F. Jagiello

57'

↕ L. Bengtsson / D. Hakans

57'

⚽P. Walemark · ast. M. Gurgul

59'

65'

(missed pen.) N. Mijuskovic⚽

↕ M. Skrzypczak / R. Gumny

66'

78'

L. Sekulski / M. Djalo ↕

78'

N. Rogowski / D. Gallapeni ↕

81'

D. Sarapata

↕ M. Ishak / Y. Agnero

82'

85'

86'

I. Salvador / Q. Lecoeuche ↕

90'+5

ast. G. Niarchos · M. Kaminski⚽

90'+8

I. Salvador

Pre-match prediction

79.5%

Lech

12.17%

X ←

8.33%

Wisla

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 12.17% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Lech

2.81

1.23

-1.58

Wisla

0.58

3.24

+2.66

Wisla Plock dominated by xG (3.24 vs 1.23). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Jagiellonia	0	0
2	Gornik Zabrze	0	0
3	Korona Kielce	0	0
4	Piast Gliwice	0	0
5	GKS Katowice	0	0
6	Motor Lublin	0	0
7	Slask Wroclaw	0	0
8	Wisla Plock	0	0
9	Pogon Szczecin	0	0
10	Wisla Krakow	0	0
11	Legia Warszawa	0	0
12	Lech Poznan	0	0
13	Zaglebie Lubin	0	0
14	Cracovia Krakow	0	0
15	Widzew Łódź	0	0
16	Radomiak Radom	0	0
17	Raków Częstochowa	0	0
18	Wieczysta Kraków	0	0

Lineups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1

Bartosz Mrozek G 7.30

Michal Gurgul 1 👟 D 7.00

Wojciech Mońka D 6.90

Mateusz Skrzypczak 66' D 6.60

Joel Pereira D 6.90

Pablo Rodríguez 57' M 6.90

Antoni Kozubal 57' M 6.60

Leo Bengtsson 57' M 6.20

L. Palma 1 ⚽ M 7.90

Patrik Wålemark 1 ⚽ M 7.00

M. Ishak 83' F 6.30

Bench

Daniel Håkans 33' M 6.20

Filip Jagiełło 33' M 6.70

Hubert Janyszka D

João Moutinho D

Mateusz Pruchniewski G

Plamen Andreev G

Radosław Murawski 33' M 6.90

Robert Gumny 24' D 7.20

Sammy Dudek M

Timothy Ouma M

Tymoteusz Gmur M

Yannick Agnero 16' F 6.30

Wisla Plock 3-5-2

Rafał Leszczyński G 6.70

Quentin Lecoeuche 86' D 6.30

Marcin Kamiński 1 ⚽ D 7.30

Marcus Haglind Sangre D 6.20

Dion Gallapeni 78' M 7.70

W. Nowak M 7.30

Nemanja Mijušković M 5.70

Dominik Kun 45' M 6.20

Žan Rogelj 1 ⚽ M 7.60

Matchoi Djaló 1 👟 78' F 6.70

Said Hamulić 45' F 6.20

Bench

Dominik Sarapata 45' M 6.70

Fabian Hiszpański M

Giannis Niarchos 1 👟 45' F 6.90

Iban Salvador 13' M 6.30

Jakub Burek G

Krystian Pomorski M

Ł. Sekulski 12' F 6.60

Matsvei Bakhno D

Nikodem Rogowski 12' D 6.70

Stanislaw Pruszkowski G

Tomás Tavares D

Best on the pitch

L. Palma

M · Lech

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 39 pass

Dion Gallapeni

M · Wisla

7.70

1 shots · 17 pass

Žan Rogelj

M · Wisla

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

W. Nowak

M · Wisla

7.30

1 shots · 23 pass

Marcin Kamiński

D · Wisla

7.30

1 ⚽

2 shots · 35 pass

Bartosz Mrozek

G · Lech

7.30

· 24 pass

Lech Poznan — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Bartosz Mrozek	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	24	23%	—	—	—
Michal Gurgul	D	90	7.00	—	1	—	83	73%	1	—	—
Wojciech Mońka	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	93	89%	1	—	—
Mateusz Skrzypczak	D	66	6.60	—	—	—	38	36%	1	1	—
Joel Pereira	D	90	6.90	—	—	2	65	56%	—	—	—
Pablo Rodríguez	M	57	6.90	—	—	1	24	20%	3	—	—
Antoni Kozubal	M	57	6.60	—	—	1	27	24%	2	—	—
Leo Bengtsson	M	57	6.20	—	—	—	21	18%	—	—	—
L. Palma	M	90	7.90	1	—	1	39	33%	—	—	—
Patrik Wålemark	M	90	7.00	1	—	3	29	22%	—	—	—
M. Ishak	F	83	6.30	—	—	1	11	9%	—	—	—
Daniel Håkans	M	33	6.20	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—
Filip Jagiełło	M	33	6.70	—	—	—	24	22%	—	—	—
Radosław Murawski	M	33	6.90	—	—	—	31	29%	1	—	—
Robert Gumny	D	24	7.20	—	—	—	25	25%	1	—	—
Yannick Agnero	F	16	6.30	—	—	1	3	3%	—	—	—

Wisla Plock — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Rafał Leszczyński	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	41	28%	—	—	—
Quentin Lecoeuche	D	86	6.30	—	—	—	19	16%	1	—	—
Marcin Kamiński	D	90	7.30	1	—	2	35	31%	1	—	—
Marcus Haglind Sangre	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	29	29%	1	—	—
Dion Gallapeni	M	78	7.70	—	—	1	17	16%	4	—	—
W. Nowak	M	90	7.30	—	—	1	23	17%	3	—	—
Nemanja Mijušković	M	90	5.70	—	—	3	17	14%	1	—	—
Dominik Kun	M	45	6.20	—	—	1	14	10%	—	—	—
Žan Rogelj	M	90	7.60	1	—	1	20	15%	3	—	—
Matchoi Djaló	F	78	6.70	—	1	1	8	6%	1	—	—
Said Hamulić	F	45	6.20	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
Dominik Sarapata	M	45	6.70	—	—	—	10	10%	1	1	—
Giannis Niarchos	F	45	6.90	—	1	1	9	6%	—	—	—
Iban Salvador	M	13	6.30	—	—	—	3	3%	—	1	—
Ł. Sekulski	F	12	6.60	—	—	—	3	1%	—	—	—
Nikodem Rogowski	D	12	6.70	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?

The final score was Lech Poznan 2–2 Wisla Plock.

What did the model predict before Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?

The model assigned 79% probability to a Lech Poznan win, 12% to a draw, and 8% to an Wisla Plock win.