D. Calvert-Lewin
90'+6
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Leeds a 38% win probability (draw 24%, Brighton 36%). The final result was Leeds 1–0 Brighton. In 2 previous meetings, Leeds have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Brighton.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
14
1
Shots on target
8
0.97
Actual xG
2.46
7
Saves
1
34%
Possession
66%
7
Corners
8
11
Tackles
6
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
D. James
/ W. Gnonto
60'
A. Tanaka
/ S. Longstaff
60'
B. Aaronson
/ L. Nmecha
60'
65'
G. Rutter
/
D. Welbeck
65'
D. Gomez
/
J. Veltman
A. Stach
/ J. Piroe
74'
82'
Y. Ayari
/
C. Baleba
82'
C. Kostoulas
/
J. Hinshelwood
S. Bornauw
/ S. Byram
90'+1
90'+3
S. March
/
Y. Minteh
⚽D. Calvert-Lewin
90'+6
D. Calvert-Lewin
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
38.72%
Leeds ←
24.89%
X
36.39%
Brighton
we assigned to the actual result (Leeds)
38.72%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.54
0.97
-0.57
1.48
2.46
+0.98
Brighton dominated by xG (2.46 vs 0.97).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
26
K. Darlow
G
K. Darlow
G
23
S. Bornauw
D
S. Bornauw
D
15
J. Bijol
D
J. Bijol
D
6
Joe Rodon
D
Joe Rodon
D
24
J. Justin
M
J. Justin
M
22
Ao Tanaka
60'
M
Ao Tanaka
60'
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
E. Ampadu
M
18
A. Stach
74'
M
A. Stach
74'
M
7
D. James
60'
M
D. James
60'
M
11
B. Aaronson
60'
F
B. Aaronson
60'
F
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
1 ⚽
F
D. Calvert-Lewin
1 ⚽
F
Bench
51
Alfie Cresswell
M
Alfie Cresswell
M
65
Jayden Lienou
D
Jayden Lienou
D
10
J. Piroe
25'
F
J. Piroe
25'
F
14
L. Nmecha
39'
F
L. Nmecha
39'
F
1
Lucas Perri
G
Lucas Perri
G
47
Rhys Chadwick-Chaplin
M
Rhys Chadwick-Chaplin
M
25
S. Byram
8'
D
S. Byram
8'
D
8
S. Longstaff
39'
M
S. Longstaff
39'
M
29
Wilfried Gnonto
39'
F
Wilfried Gnonto
39'
F
1
B. Verbruggen
G
B. Verbruggen
G
29
M. De Cuyper
D
M. De Cuyper
D
5
L. Dunk
D
L. Dunk
D
6
J. van Hecke
D
J. van Hecke
D
34
J. Veltman
65'
D
J. Veltman
65'
D
17
C. Baleba
82'
M
C. Baleba
82'
M
30
P. Groß
M
P. Groß
M
11
Yankuba Minteh
M
Yankuba Minteh
M
13
J. Hinshelwood
82'
M
J. Hinshelwood
82'
M
24
F. Kadıoğlu
M
F. Kadıoğlu
M
18
D. Welbeck
65'
F
D. Welbeck
65'
F
Bench
19
C. Kostoulas
17'
F
C. Kostoulas
17'
F
25
D. Gómez
34'
M
D. Gómez
34'
M
10
G. Rutter
34'
F
G. Rutter
34'
F
20
James Milner
M
James Milner
M
23
J. Steele
G
J. Steele
G
33
M. O'Riley
M
M. O'Riley
M
21
O. Boscagli
D
O. Boscagli
D
7
Solly March
6'
M
Solly March
6'
M
26
Y. Ayari
17'
M
Y. Ayari
17'
M
Best on the pitch
K. Darlow
G · Leeds
7.70
· 35 pass
P. Groß
M · Brighton
7.60
2 shots
· 68 pass
M. De Cuyper
D · Brighton
7.30
· 57 pass
D. Calvert-Lewin
F · Leeds
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
E. Ampadu
M · Leeds
7.30
· 37 pass
Joe Rodon
D · Leeds
7.20
· 19 pass
Leeds — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Darlow | G | 99 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 15% | — | — | — |
| S. Bornauw | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Bijol | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Joe Rodon | D | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Justin | M | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Ao Tanaka | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| E. Ampadu | M | 99 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Stach | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| D. James | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Aaronson | F | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 99 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Piroe | F | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| L. Nmecha | F | 39 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| S. Byram | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| S. Longstaff | M | 39 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Wilfried Gnonto | F | 39 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
Brighton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Verbruggen | G | 99 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 21% | — | — | — |
| M. De Cuyper | D | 99 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 48% | — | — | — |
| L. Dunk | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 82 | 73% | — | — | — |
| J. van Hecke | D | 99 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 96 | 83% | — | — | — |
| J. Veltman | D | 65 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Baleba | M | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | — | — | — |
| P. Groß | M | 99 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 68 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| Yankuba Minteh | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. Hinshelwood | M | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 27 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Kadıoğlu | M | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 26% | — | — | — |
| D. Welbeck | F | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Kostoulas | F | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| D. Gómez | M | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| G. Rutter | F | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Solly March | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Ayari | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Leeds vs Brighton?
The final score was Leeds 1–0 Brighton.
What did the model predict before Leeds vs Brighton?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Leeds win, 24% to a draw, and 36% to an Brighton win.