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#10 · 5 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Model correct — prediction Leeds
A. Stach (ast. J. Bijol) 8'
N. Okafor (ast. J. Bogle) 52'
D. Calvert-Lewin 56'
71' (ast. J. Anthony) L. Tchaouna
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Leeds a 70% win probability (draw 20%, Burnley 9%). The final result was Leeds 3–1 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Leeds have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Burnley.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
3
1.56
Actual xG
0.47
2
Saves
5
48%
Possession
52%
5
Corners
0
10
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
A. Stach · ast. J. Bijol
8'
P. Struijk
27'
35'
B. Humphreys
37'
L. Tchaouna
J. Rodon
40'
D. Calvert-Lewin
48'
N. Okafor · ast. J. Bogle
52'
54'
H. Mejbri / J. Laurent
D. Calvert-Lewin
56'
N. Okafor / L. Nmecha
65'
65'
Lucas Pires / Q. Hartman
65'
Florentino / J. Ward-Prowse
68'
71'
ast. J. Anthony · L. Tchaouna
A. Stach / B. Aaronson
72'
A. Tanaka / S. Longstaff
72'
E. Ampadu
75'
76'
Z. Amdouni / B. Humphreys
76'
A. Broja / Z. Flemming
88'
H. Mejbri
J. Bogle / D. James
90'+4
D. Calvert-Lewin / W. Gnonto
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
70.03%
Leeds ←
20.45%
X
9.52%
Burnley
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Leeds) 70.03% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Leeds
2.00
1.56
-0.44
Burnley
0.58
0.47
-0.11
Leeds dominated by xG (1.56 vs 0.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Arsenal Arsenal 4 12
2 Manchester City Manchester City 3 9
3 Hull City Hull City 4 8
4 Chelsea Chelsea 4 7
5 Brentford Brentford 4 6
6 Liverpool Liverpool 4 6
7 Everton Everton 4 6
8 Ipswich Ipswich 4 6
9 Newcastle Newcastle 3 5
10 Leeds Leeds 3 5
11 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4 5
12 Brighton Brighton 3 4
13 Manchester United Manchester United 3 4
14 Sunderland Sunderland 4 4
15 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4 3
16 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 4 3
17 Tottenham Tottenham 4 2
18 Fulham Fulham 4 1
19 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4 1
20 Coventry Coventry 3 0
Lineups
Leeds Leeds 3-5-2
26
G 6.30
5 P. Struijk P. Struijk D 6.20
15 J. Bijol J. Bijol 1 👟 D 7.30
6 Joe Rodon Joe Rodon D 6.20
24 J. Justin J. Justin M 7.20
22 A. Tanaka A. Tanaka 72' M 6.90
4 E. Ampadu E. Ampadu M 6.50
18 A. Stach A. Stach 1 ⚽ 72' M 8.00
2 J. Bogle J. Bogle 1 👟 M 7.50
19 N. Okafor N. Okafor 1 ⚽ 65' F 7.30
9 D. Calvert-Lewin D. Calvert-Lewin 1 ⚽ F 6.60
Bench
11 B. Aaronson B. Aaronson 28' M 6.70
14 L. Nmecha L. Nmecha 35' F 6.90
8 S. Longstaff S. Longstaff 28' M 6.90
Burnley Burnley 5-4-1
1
G 6.60
3 Q. Hartman Q. Hartman 65' D 5.90
12 Bashir Humphreys Bashir Humphreys 76' D 5.70
5 M. Estève M. Estève D 6.20
18
D 6.60
2 K. Walker K. Walker D 6.20
11 J. Anthony J. Anthony 1 👟 M 6.30
20 J. Ward-Prowse J. Ward-Prowse 65' M 6.70
29 J. Laurent J. Laurent 54' M 6.50
17 L. Tchaouna L. Tchaouna 1 ⚽ M 7.20
19 Z. Flemming Z. Flemming 76' F 6.60
Bench
27 A. Broja A. Broja 24' F 6.30
16 Florentino Florentino 35' M 6.70
28 H. Mejbri H. Mejbri 46' M 6.70
23 Lucas Pires Lucas Pires 35' D 6.30
8 L. Ugochukwu L. Ugochukwu M
10 M. Edwards M. Edwards F
Best on the pitch
A. Stach
A. Stach
M · Leeds
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots · 23 pass
J. Bogle
J. Bogle
M · Leeds
7.50
1 👟
· 22 pass
J. Bijol
J. Bijol
D · Leeds
7.30
1 👟
· 61 pass
N. Okafor
N. Okafor
F · Leeds
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
L. Tchaouna
L. Tchaouna
M · Burnley
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 19 pass
J. Justin
J. Justin
M · Leeds
7.20
1 shots · 32 pass
Leeds Leeds — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 100 6.30 41 28%
P. Struijk D 100 6.20 1 69 58% 1
J. Bijol D 100 7.30 1 61 52% 1
Joe Rodon D 100 6.20 1 40 33% 1
J. Justin M 100 7.20 1 32 21% 4
A. Tanaka M 72 6.90 2 50 46%
E. Ampadu M 100 6.50 54 48% 1
A. Stach M 72 8.00 1 3 23 11% 2
J. Bogle M 94 7.50 1 22 19% 1
N. Okafor F 65 7.30 1 1 24 18% 1
D. Calvert-Lewin F 94 6.60 1 2 15 8% 1
B. Aaronson M 28 6.70 7 7% 1
L. Nmecha F 35 6.90 1 3
S. Longstaff M 28 6.90 6 6%
Burnley Burnley — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 100 6.60 36 25%
Q. Hartman D 65 5.90 24 16% 2
Bashir Humphreys D 76 5.70 1 46 39% 1 1
M. Estève D 100 6.20 64 58% 1
D 100 6.60 67 59% 3
K. Walker D 100 6.20 48 42% 2
J. Anthony M 100 6.30 1 1 33 26% 2
J. Ward-Prowse M 65 6.70 1 30 27%
J. Laurent M 54 6.50 1 19 16%
L. Tchaouna M 100 7.20 1 1 19 14% 1 1
Z. Flemming F 76 6.60 9 7%
A. Broja F 24 6.30 8 5%
Florentino M 35 6.70 30 24% 1
H. Mejbri M 46 6.70 40 33% 1
Lucas Pires D 35 6.30 21 16%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Leeds vs Burnley?
The final score was Leeds 3–1 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Leeds vs Burnley?
The model assigned 70% probability to a Leeds win, 20% to a draw, and 9% to an Burnley win.