Premier League
· Regular Season - 35
May 01, 2026 21:00
✓Model correct — prediction Leeds
A. Stach
(ast. J. Bijol)
8'
N. Okafor
(ast. J. Bogle)
52'
D. Calvert-Lewin
56'
71'
(ast. J. Anthony)
L. Tchaouna
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Leeds a 70% win probability (draw 20%, Burnley 9%). The final result was Leeds 3–1 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Leeds have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Burnley.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
3
1.56
Actual xG
0.47
2
Saves
5
48%
Possession
52%
5
Corners
0
10
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽A. Stach
· ast. J. Bijol
8'
P. Struijk
27'
35'
B. Humphreys
37'
L. Tchaouna
J. Rodon
40'
D. Calvert-Lewin
48'
⚽N. Okafor
· ast. J. Bogle
52'
54'
H. Mejbri
/
J. Laurent
⚽D. Calvert-Lewin
56'
N. Okafor
/ L. Nmecha
65'
65'
Lucas Pires
/
Q. Hartman
65'
Florentino
/
J. Ward-Prowse
68'
71'
ast. J. Anthony ·
L. Tchaouna⚽
A. Stach
/ B. Aaronson
72'
A. Tanaka
/ S. Longstaff
72'
E. Ampadu
75'
76'
Z. Amdouni
/
B. Humphreys
76'
A. Broja
/
Z. Flemming
88'
H. Mejbri
J. Bogle
/ D. James
90'+4
D. Calvert-Lewin
/ W. Gnonto
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
70.03%
Leeds ←
20.45%
X
9.52%
Burnley
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Leeds)
70.03%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.00
1.56
-0.44
0.58
0.47
-0.11
Leeds dominated by xG (1.56 vs 0.47).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
26
G
5
Pascal Struijk
D
Pascal Struijk
D
15
Jaka Bijol
1 👟
D
Jaka Bijol
1 👟
D
6
Joe Rodon
D
Joe Rodon
D
24
James Justin
M
James Justin
M
22
Ao Tanaka
72'
M
Ao Tanaka
72'
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
E. Ampadu
M
18
Anton Stach
1 ⚽
72'
M
Anton Stach
1 ⚽
72'
M
2
Jayden Bogle
1 👟
M
19
Noah Okafor
1 ⚽
65'
F
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
1 ⚽
F
D. Calvert-Lewin
1 ⚽
F
Bench
11
B. Aaronson
28'
M
B. Aaronson
28'
M
14
Lukas Nmecha
35'
F
Lukas Nmecha
35'
F
8
Sean Longstaff
28'
M
Sean Longstaff
28'
M
1
G
3
Quilindschy Hartman
65'
D
Quilindschy Hartman
65'
D
12
Bashir Humphreys
76'
D
Bashir Humphreys
76'
D
5
Maxime Estève
D
Maxime Estève
D
18
D
2
K. Walker
D
K. Walker
D
11
Jaidon Anthony
1 👟
M
Jaidon Anthony
1 👟
M
20
James Ward-Prowse
65'
M
James Ward-Prowse
65'
M
29
Josh Laurent
54'
M
Josh Laurent
54'
M
17
Loum Tchaouna
1 ⚽
M
Loum Tchaouna
1 ⚽
M
19
Z. Flemming
76'
F
Z. Flemming
76'
F
Bench
27
Armando Broja
24'
F
Armando Broja
24'
F
16
Florentino Luís
35'
M
Florentino Luís
35'
M
28
Hannibal Mejbri
46'
M
Hannibal Mejbri
46'
M
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
M
Lesley Ugochukwu
M
23
Lucas Pires
35'
D
Lucas Pires
35'
D
10
M. Edwards
F
Best on the pitch
Anton Stach
M · Leeds
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 23 pass
Jayden Bogle
M · Leeds
7.50
1 👟
· 22 pass
Jaka Bijol
D · Leeds
7.30
1 👟
· 61 pass
Noah Okafor
F · Leeds
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 24 pass
Loum Tchaouna
M · Burnley
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 19 pass
James Justin
M · Leeds
7.20
1 shots
· 32 pass
Leeds — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 100 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| Pascal Struijk | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 58% | — | 1 | — |
| Jaka Bijol | D | 100 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 61 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Joe Rodon | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| James Justin | M | 100 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| Ao Tanaka | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 46% | — | — | — |
| E. Ampadu | M | 100 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 54 | 48% | — | 1 | — |
| Anton Stach | M | 72 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 23 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Jayden Bogle | M | 94 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Noah Okafor | F | 65 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 94 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 15 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| B. Aaronson | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Lukas Nmecha | F | 35 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Longstaff | M | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
Burnley — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 100 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 65 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 76 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Maxime Estève | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 64 | 58% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 100 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 59% | 3 | — | — | |
| K. Walker | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 100 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 33 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 100 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Z. Flemming | F | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 35 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 46 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Leeds vs Burnley?
The final score was Leeds 3–1 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Leeds vs Burnley?
The model assigned 70% probability to a Leeds win, 20% to a draw, and 9% to an Burnley win.