✓Model correct — prediction Leeds
A. Stach
(ast. J. Bijol)
8'
N. Okafor
(ast. J. Bogle)
52'
D. Calvert-Lewin
56'
71'
(ast. J. Anthony)
L. Tchaouna
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Leeds a 70% win probability (draw 20%, Burnley 9%). The final result was Leeds 3–1 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Leeds have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Burnley.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
3
1.56
Actual xG
0.47
2
Saves
5
48%
Possession
52%
5
Corners
0
10
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽A. Stach
· ast. J. Bijol
8'
P. Struijk
27'
35'
B. Humphreys
37'
L. Tchaouna
J. Rodon
40'
D. Calvert-Lewin
48'
⚽N. Okafor
· ast. J. Bogle
52'
54'
H. Mejbri
/
J. Laurent
⚽D. Calvert-Lewin
56'
N. Okafor
/ L. Nmecha
65'
65'
Lucas Pires
/
Q. Hartman
65'
Florentino
/
J. Ward-Prowse
68'
71'
ast. J. Anthony ·
L. Tchaouna⚽
A. Stach
/ B. Aaronson
72'
A. Tanaka
/ S. Longstaff
72'
E. Ampadu
75'
76'
Z. Amdouni
/
B. Humphreys
76'
A. Broja
/
Z. Flemming
88'
H. Mejbri
J. Bogle
/ D. James
90'+4
D. Calvert-Lewin
/ W. Gnonto
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
70.03%
Leeds ←
20.45%
X
9.52%
Burnley
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Leeds)
70.03%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.00
1.56
-0.44
0.58
0.47
-0.11
Leeds dominated by xG (1.56 vs 0.47).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
26
G
5
P. Struijk
D
P. Struijk
D
15
J. Bijol
1 👟
D
J. Bijol
1 👟
D
6
Joe Rodon
D
Joe Rodon
D
24
J. Justin
M
J. Justin
M
22
A. Tanaka
72'
M
A. Tanaka
72'
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
E. Ampadu
M
18
A. Stach
1 ⚽
72'
M
A. Stach
1 ⚽
72'
M
2
J. Bogle
1 👟
M
J. Bogle
1 👟
M
19
N. Okafor
1 ⚽
65'
F
N. Okafor
1 ⚽
65'
F
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
1 ⚽
F
D. Calvert-Lewin
1 ⚽
F
Bench
11
B. Aaronson
28'
M
B. Aaronson
28'
M
14
L. Nmecha
35'
F
L. Nmecha
35'
F
8
S. Longstaff
28'
M
S. Longstaff
28'
M
1
G
3
Q. Hartman
65'
D
Q. Hartman
65'
D
12
Bashir Humphreys
76'
D
Bashir Humphreys
76'
D
5
M. Estève
D
M. Estève
D
18
D
2
K. Walker
D
K. Walker
D
11
J. Anthony
1 👟
M
J. Anthony
1 👟
M
20
J. Ward-Prowse
65'
M
J. Ward-Prowse
65'
M
29
J. Laurent
54'
M
J. Laurent
54'
M
17
L. Tchaouna
1 ⚽
M
L. Tchaouna
1 ⚽
M
19
Z. Flemming
76'
F
Z. Flemming
76'
F
Bench
27
A. Broja
24'
F
A. Broja
24'
F
16
Florentino
35'
M
Florentino
35'
M
28
H. Mejbri
46'
M
H. Mejbri
46'
M
23
Lucas Pires
35'
D
Lucas Pires
35'
D
8
L. Ugochukwu
M
L. Ugochukwu
M
10
M. Edwards
F
M. Edwards
F
Best on the pitch
A. Stach
M · Leeds
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 23 pass
J. Bogle
M · Leeds
7.50
1 👟
· 22 pass
J. Bijol
D · Leeds
7.30
1 👟
· 61 pass
N. Okafor
F · Leeds
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 24 pass
L. Tchaouna
M · Burnley
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 19 pass
J. Justin
M · Leeds
7.20
1 shots
· 32 pass
Leeds — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 100 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| P. Struijk | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 58% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Bijol | D | 100 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 61 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Joe Rodon | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Justin | M | 100 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Tanaka | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 46% | — | — | — |
| E. Ampadu | M | 100 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 54 | 48% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Stach | M | 72 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 23 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bogle | M | 94 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Okafor | F | 65 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 94 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 15 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| B. Aaronson | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Nmecha | F | 35 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| S. Longstaff | M | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
Burnley — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 100 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| Q. Hartman | D | 65 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 76 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Estève | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 64 | 58% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 100 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 59% | 3 | — | — | |
| K. Walker | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Anthony | M | 100 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 33 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Ward-Prowse | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| L. Tchaouna | M | 100 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Z. Flemming | F | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| A. Broja | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Florentino | M | 35 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Mejbri | M | 46 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Leeds vs Burnley?
The final score was Leeds 3–1 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Leeds vs Burnley?
The model assigned 70% probability to a Leeds win, 20% to a draw, and 9% to an Burnley win.