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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 30 April 17, 2026 20:45 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Lens
#15 · 4 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Toulouse
#13 · 5 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Lens
S. Abdulhamid (ast. A. Saint-Maximin) 61'
A. Thomasson 67'
I. Ganiou (ast. A. Bulatovic) 90'
6' C. Casseres
13' (ast. S. Hidalgo) S. Koumbassa
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lens a 75% win probability (draw 13%, Toulouse 11%). The final result was Lens 3–2 Toulouse. In 2 previous meetings, Lens have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Toulouse.

Match statistics
32
Total shots
3
13
Shots on target
2
3.77
Actual xG
0.41
0
Saves
10
78%
Possession
22%
14
Corners
1
21
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
6'
C. Casseres⚽
13'
ast. S. Hidalgo · S. Koumbassa⚽
16'
17'
Yann Gboho
Arthur Masuaku
45'
46'
P. Demba / S. Hidalgo ↕
↕ W. Said / A. Saint-Maximin
55'
↕ R. Fofana / O. Edouard
55'
⚽S. Abdulhamid · ast. A. Saint-Maximin
61'
64'
J. Russell-Rowe / Emersonn ↕
64'
D. Methalie / A. Donnum ↕
⚽A. Thomasson
67'
↕ F. Sotoca / F. Thauvin
72'
72'
D. Sidibe / C. Cresswell ↕
76'
M. Sauer / A. Vossah ↕
↕ A. Masuaku / S. Baidoo
85'
↕ A. Thomasson / A. Bulatovic
85'
88'
Mario Sauer
⚽I. Ganiou · ast. A. Bulatovic
90'
Pre-match prediction
75.07%
Lens ←
13.33%
X
11.61%
Toulouse
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Lens) 75.07% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Lens
3.06
3.77
+0.71
Toulouse
1.08
0.41
-0.67
Lens dominated by xG (3.77 vs 0.41). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Monaco Monaco 5 13
2 Lyon Lyon 5 11
3 Paris FC Paris FC 5 11
4 Lille Lille 5 10
5 Rennes Rennes 5 10
6 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 5 8
7 Angers Angers 5 7
8 Strasbourg Strasbourg 5 7
9 Le Mans Le Mans 5 6
10 Auxerre Auxerre 5 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 5 5
12 Lorient Lorient 5 5
13 Toulouse Toulouse 5 5
14 Nice Nice 5 5
15 Lens Lens 5 4
16 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 5 4
17 Marseille Marseille 5 3
18 Le Havre Le Havre 5 2
Lineups
Lens Lens 3-4-2-1
40
G 5.50
27
A. Masuaku 85' D 6.30
20 M. Sarr M. Sarr D 7.90
25 I. Ganiou I. Ganiou 1 ⚽ D 7.20
14 M. Udol M. Udol M 8.20
28 A. Thomasson A. Thomasson 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.90
8 M. Sangaré M. Sangaré M 7.20
23 Saud Abdulhamid Saud Abdulhamid 1 ⚽ M 8.30
22 W. Saïd W. Saïd 55' F 6.70
7 F. Sotoca F. Sotoca 72' F 6.20
38 R. Fofana R. Fofana 55' F 6.30
Bench
5 A. Bulatović A. Bulatović 1 👟 10' M 6.90
21 A. Haidara A. Haidara M
9 A. Saint-Maximin A. Saint-Maximin 1 👟 35' F 7.20
19 A. Sima A. Sima F
10 F. Thauvin F. Thauvin 18' F 7.00
11 O. Édouard O. Édouard 35' F 6.30
2 R. Aguilar R. Aguilar D
6 Samson Baidoo Samson Baidoo 10' D 6.30
Toulouse Toulouse 3-4-2-1
1 G. Restes G. Restes G 7.70
2 R. Nicolaisen R. Nicolaisen D 6.30
4 C. Cresswell C. Cresswell 72' D 6.70
35 S. Koumbassa S. Koumbassa 1 ⚽ D 6.70
12 Waren Kamanzi Waren Kamanzi M 6.70
45 A. Vossah A. Vossah 76' M 6.30
23 C. Cásseres C. Cásseres 1 ⚽ M 7.60
15 A. Dønnum A. Dønnum 64' M 6.50
11 S. Hidalgo S. Hidalgo 1 👟 45' F 6.90
10
Y. Gboho 17' F 3.00
20 Emersonn Emersonn 64' F 6.00
Bench
24 D. Methalie D. Methalie 26' D 5.90
19 D. Sidibé D. Sidibé 18' D 6.30
13 Jacen Russell Rowe Jacen Russell Rowe 26' F 6.50
7 Julián Vignolo Julián Vignolo F
77 M. Sauer M. Sauer 14' M 6.20
18 P. Diop P. Diop 45' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid
M · Lens
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 59 pass
M. Udol
M. Udol
M · Lens
8.20
5 shots · 51 pass
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
D · Lens
7.90
3 shots · 85 pass
A. Thomasson
A. Thomasson
M · Lens
7.90
1 ⚽
5 shots · 32 pass
G. Restes
G. Restes
G · Toulouse
7.70
· 38 pass
C. Cásseres
C. Cásseres
M · Toulouse
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 17 pass
Lens Lens — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.50 — — — 13 12% — — —
A. Masuaku D 85 6.30 — — 1 85 80% 2 1 —
M. Sarr D 90 7.90 — — 3 85 82% 3 — —
I. Ganiou D 90 7.20 1 — 4 81 71% 3 — —
M. Udol M 90 8.20 — — 5 51 43% 2 — —
A. Thomasson M 85 7.90 1 — 5 32 27% 3 — —
M. Sangaré M 90 7.20 — — 2 71 64% 4 — —
Saud Abdulhamid M 90 8.30 1 — 1 59 51% 1 — —
W. Saïd F 55 6.70 — — 5 27 22% 2 — —
F. Sotoca F 72 6.20 — — 1 39 31% — — —
R. Fofana F 55 6.30 — — 1 7 6% 1 — —
A. Bulatović M 10 6.90 — 1 — 4 4% — — —
A. Saint-Maximin F 35 7.20 — 1 2 18 17% — — —
F. Thauvin F 18 7.00 — — — 15 15% — — —
O. Édouard F 35 6.30 — — 2 2 1% — — —
Samson Baidoo D 10 6.30 — — — 6 6% — — —
Toulouse Toulouse — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Restes G 90 7.70 — — — 38 16% — — —
R. Nicolaisen D 90 6.30 — — — 14 9% — — —
C. Cresswell D 72 6.70 — — — 10 8% — — —
S. Koumbassa D 90 6.70 1 — 1 16 9% 1 — —
Waren Kamanzi M 90 6.70 — — — 10 7% 2 — —
A. Vossah M 76 6.30 — — — 19 14% 1 — —
C. Cásseres M 90 7.60 1 — 1 17 13% 5 — —
A. Dønnum M 64 6.50 — — — 14 10% 1 — —
S. Hidalgo F 45 6.90 — 1 — 8 6% 1 — —
Y. Gboho F 17 3.00 — — — 3 1% 1 — 1
Emersonn F 64 6.00 — — — 9 6% — — —
D. Methalie D 26 5.90 — — — 3 1% 1 — —
D. Sidibé D 18 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Jacen Russell Rowe F 26 6.50 — — — 6 3% — — —
M. Sauer M 14 6.20 — — — 1 1% — 1 —
P. Diop M 45 6.70 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lens vs Toulouse?
The final score was Lens 3–2 Toulouse.
What did the model predict before Lens vs Toulouse?
The model assigned 75% probability to a Lens win, 13% to a draw, and 11% to an Toulouse win.