Liga MX
· Apertura - 1
July 18, 2026 03:00
D. Cambindo
27'
J. Cortizo
(ast. A. Alvarado)
77'
2'
Duk
50'
(ast. Gustavo Ferrareis)
A. Gonzalez
(pen.)
73'
A. Rocha
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Leon a 35% win probability (draw 32%, Atlas 32%). The final result was Leon 2–3 Atlas. In 2 previous meetings, Leon have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atlas.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
8
Shots on target
7
1.23
Actual xG
1.72
4
Saves
6
46%
Possession
54%
6
Corners
2
27
Tackles
24
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
2'
Duk⚽
⚽D. Cambindo
27'
D. Cambindo
42'
46'
M. Valenzuela
/
J. Rodriguez
50'
ast. Gustavo Ferrareis ·
A. Gonzalez⚽
S. Santos
/ J. Cortizo
55'
I. Diaz
/ A. Alvarado
56'
D. Arcila
/ E. Guerra
56'
58'
L. Esteves
/
A. Gonzalez
64'
V. H. Rios De Alba
/
E. Zaldivar
73'
(pen.)
A. Rocha⚽
R. Echeverria
73'
R. Echeverria
/ L. Valadez
74'
⚽J. Cortizo
· ast. A. Alvarado
77'
I. Moreno
/ F. Beltran Cruz
82'
84'
M. Capasso
85'
A. Rocha
89'
J. Lozano
/
Duk
A. Alvarado
90'+9
Pre-match prediction
35.18%
Leon
32.52%
X
32.3%
Atlas ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atlas)
32.3%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.66
1.23
-0.43
0.67
1.72
+1.05
Atlas dominated by xG (1.72 vs 1.23).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Oscar García
G
Oscar García
G
26
Salvador Reyes
D
Salvador Reyes
D
5
Sebastián Vegas
D
Sebastián Vegas
D
3
Juan Guevara
D
Juan Guevara
D
7
Iván Moreno
82'
D
Iván Moreno
82'
D
29
José Rodríguez
M
José Rodríguez
M
11
I. Díaz
55'
M
I. Díaz
55'
M
13
D. Arcila
56'
M
D. Arcila
56'
M
20
R. Echeverría
74'
M
R. Echeverría
74'
M
22
Sebastián Santos
55'
M
Sebastián Santos
55'
M
27
D. Cambindo
1 ⚽
42'
F
D. Cambindo
1 ⚽
42'
F
Bench
33
Abraham Villegas Maciel
D
Abraham Villegas Maciel
D
4
Bryan Colula
D
Bryan Colula
D
185
Christopher Mora
D
Christopher Mora
D
18
Edgar Guerra
34'
M
Edgar Guerra
34'
M
6
Fernando Beltrán
8'
M
Fernando Beltrán
8'
M
19
J. Alvarado
1 👟
35'
F
J. Alvarado
1 👟
35'
F
16
J. Cortizo
1 ⚽
35'
M
J. Cortizo
1 ⚽
35'
M
1
Jordan García
G
Jordan García
G
35
Luis Valadez
16'
M
Luis Valadez
16'
M
25
Paul Bellón
D
Paul Bellón
D
22
Antonio Sánchez
G
Antonio Sánchez
G
5
Jorge Rodríguez
45'
D
Jorge Rodríguez
45'
D
21
Rodrigo Schlegel
D
Rodrigo Schlegel
D
28
Manuel Capasso
D
Manuel Capasso
D
2
Gustavo Ferrareis
1 👟
D
Gustavo Ferrareis
1 👟
D
6
É. Zaldívar
64'
M
É. Zaldívar
64'
M
26
A. Rocha
1 ⚽
M
A. Rocha
1 ⚽
M
23
Sergio Hernandez
M
Sergio Hernandez
M
58
A. González
1 ⚽
57'
M
A. González
1 ⚽
57'
M
11
Duk
1 ⚽
89'
M
Duk
1 ⚽
89'
M
8
R. Mmaee
F
R. Mmaee
F
Bench
4
Adrián Mora
D
Adrián Mora
D
13
Gaddi Aguirre
D
Gaddi Aguirre
D
192
Jesús Serrato
M
Jesús Serrato
M
17
Jose Lozano
13'
D
Jose Lozano
13'
D
203
Jose Martin
F
Jose Martin
F
10
Luís Esteves
33'
M
Luís Esteves
33'
M
16
Milton Valenzuela
45'
D
Milton Valenzuela
45'
D
15
Paulo Ramírez
D
Paulo Ramírez
D
27
Victor Rios
26'
M
Victor Rios
26'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Cortizo
M · Leon
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 18 pass
Duk
M · Atlas
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
A. González
M · Atlas
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 26 pass
A. Rocha
M · Atlas
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 57 pass
Sebastián Vegas
D · Leon
7.20
· 39 pass
Milton Valenzuela
D · Atlas
7.00
1 shots
· 32 pass
Leon — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar García | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Salvador Reyes | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Sebastián Vegas | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 6 | — | — |
| Juan Guevara | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Iván Moreno | D | 82 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| José Rodríguez | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Díaz | M | 55 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Arcila | M | 56 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Echeverría | M | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Sebastián Santos | M | 55 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Cambindo | F | 42 | 6.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 10 | 7% | — | — | 1 |
| Edgar Guerra | M | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| Fernando Beltrán | M | 8 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Alvarado | F | 35 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Cortizo | M | 35 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Luis Valadez | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Atlas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sánchez | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Rodríguez | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Schlegel | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Manuel Capasso | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 47% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Ferrareis | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 37 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| É. Zaldívar | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rocha | M | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 57 | 47% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Sergio Hernandez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| A. González | M | 57 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Duk | M | 89 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 16% | 5 | — | — |
| R. Mmaee | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Jose Lozano | D | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Luís Esteves | M | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Milton Valenzuela | D | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| Victor Rios | M | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Leon vs Atlas?
The final score was Leon 2–3 Atlas.
What did the model predict before Leon vs Atlas?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Leon win, 32% to a draw, and 32% to an Atlas win.