Liga MX
· Apertura - 14
October 25, 2026 01:00
Jose Alvarado
(ast. Ismael Díaz)
12'
44'
(ast. Jorge Diaz)
Federico Viñas
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Leon a 44% win probability (draw 22%, Toluca 33%). The final result was Leon 1–1 Toluca. In 3 previous meetings, Leon have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 3 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
14
7
Shots on target
5
1.54
Actual xG
1.43
4
Saves
6
39%
Possession
61%
3
Corners
6
22
Tackles
22
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Rodrigo Echeverría
9'
⚽Jose Alvarado
· ast. Ismael Díaz
12'
27'
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
31'
Franco Romero
Jose Alvarado
39'
44'
ast. Jorge Diaz ·
Federico Viñas⚽
Rodrigo Echeverría
/ Diber Cambindo
45'
Jose Alvarado
/ Jose Rodriguez
45'
Edgar Guerra
/ Juan Dominguez
62'
63'
Alexis Vega
/
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
Fernando Beltran
/ Jordi Cortizo
63'
63'
Nicolás Castro
/
Pavel Pérez
75'
João Paulo Dias Fernandes
/
Federico Viñas
Daniel Arcila
/ Jesús Lara
75'
86'
Jesús Angulo
/
Jorge Diaz
Jesús Lara
90'+3
90'+3
Bruno Méndez
Pre-match prediction
44.06%
Leon
22.47%
X ←
33.47%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
22.47%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.38
1.54
-0.84
1.86
1.43
-0.43
xG dominance was balanced (1.54 – 1.43).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Ó. García
G
Ó. García
G
5
S. Vegas
D
S. Vegas
D
3
Juan José Guevara Possu
D
Juan José Guevara Possu
D
14
J. Romaña
D
J. Romaña
D
7
I. Moreno
D
I. Moreno
D
13
D. Arcila
75'
M
D. Arcila
75'
M
11
I. Díaz
1 👟
M
I. Díaz
1 👟
M
6
F. Beltrán
63'
M
F. Beltrán
63'
M
20
R. Echeverría
45'
M
R. Echeverría
45'
M
18
E. Guerra
62'
M
E. Guerra
62'
M
19
J. Alvarado
1 ⚽
45'
F
J. Alvarado
1 ⚽
45'
F
Bench
4
B. Colula
D
B. Colula
D
185
C. Mora
D
C. Mora
D
27
D. Cambindo
45'
F
D. Cambindo
45'
F
16
J. Cortizo
27'
M
J. Cortizo
27'
M
8
J. Domínguez
28'
M
J. Domínguez
28'
M
203
J. Lara
15'
M
J. Lara
15'
M
29
J. Rodríguez
45'
M
J. Rodríguez
45'
M
25
P. Bellón
D
P. Bellón
D
26
S. Reyes
M
S. Reyes
M
1
H. González
G
H. González
G
20
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
6
F. Pereira
D
F. Pereira
D
4
B. Méndez
D
B. Méndez
D
19
S. Simón
D
S. Simón
D
35
É. Gutiérrez
M
É. Gutiérrez
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
15
P. Pérez
63'
M
P. Pérez
63'
M
29
J. Díaz
1 👟
86'
M
J. Díaz
1 👟
86'
M
11
Helinho
63'
M
Helinho
63'
M
16
F. Viñas
1 ⚽
75'
F
F. Viñas
1 ⚽
75'
F
Bench
9
A. Vega
27'
F
A. Vega
27'
F
17
B. García
D
B. García
D
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
10
J. Angulo
4'
M
J. Angulo
4'
M
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
8
N. Castro
27'
M
N. Castro
27'
M
26
Paulinho
15'
F
Paulinho
15'
F
7
V. Guzmán
M
V. Guzmán
M
Best on the pitch
H. González
G · Toluca
7.77
· 25 pass
I. Díaz
M · Leon
7.70
1 👟
6 shots
· 20 pass
J. Alvarado
F · Leon
7.69
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 8 pass
J. Díaz
M · Toluca
7.66
1 👟
3 shots
· 30 pass
F. Viñas
F · Toluca
7.61
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 9 pass
S. Simón
D · Toluca
7.30
· 52 pass
Leon — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ó. García | G | 90 | 6.87 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Vegas | D | 90 | 6.81 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan José Guevara Possu | D | 90 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Romaña | D | 90 | 6.53 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Moreno | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 0 | 34 | 26% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Arcila | M | 75 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| I. Díaz | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 6 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Beltrán | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Echeverría | M | 45 | 6.37 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 17% | 0 | 1 | — |
| E. Guerra | M | 62 | 6.25 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Alvarado | F | 45 | 7.69 | 1 | — | 4 | 8 | 4% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Cambindo | F | 45 | 6.81 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Cortizo | M | 27 | 6.29 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Domínguez | M | 28 | 6.69 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Lara | M | 15 | 6.01 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 3% | 0 | 1 | — |
| J. Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.42 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. González | G | 90 | 7.77 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 23% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 6.79 | — | — | 3 | 39 | 34% | 4 | — | — |
| F. Pereira | D | 90 | 6.72 | — | — | 0 | 100 | 86% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Méndez | D | 90 | 6.56 | — | — | 0 | 90 | 74% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Simón | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 0 | 52 | 49% | 5 | — | — |
| É. Gutiérrez | M | 90 | 7.13 | — | — | 0 | 65 | 59% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 6.25 | — | — | 0 | 65 | 56% | 2 | 1 | — |
| P. Pérez | M | 63 | 6.86 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | M | 86 | 7.66 | — | 1 | 3 | 30 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| Helinho | M | 63 | 6.32 | — | — | 3 | 22 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Viñas | F | 75 | 7.61 | 1 | — | 3 | 9 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Vega | F | 27 | 6.71 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 4 | 6.37 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 27 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Paulinho | F | 15 | 6.47 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Leon vs Toluca?
The final score was Leon 1–1 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Leon vs Toluca?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Leon win, 22% to a draw, and 33% to an Toluca win.