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Leones Negros UDG - Correcaminos Uat

Liga de Expansión MX August 07, 2026 03:00 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Leones Negros UDG
#1 · 6 pts
vs
Correcaminos Uat
#4 · 4 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 19.7°C 💨 4 km/h 🌧️ 25% · Guadalajara
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.16%
Win
Leones Negros UDG
30.16%
Draw
30.68%
Win
Correcaminos Uat
4.18
Expected xG
2.02

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.72%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 30%
2 31%
Double Chance
1X 69%
X2 61%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 53%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Leones Negros UDG a 39% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Correcaminos Uat. Expected goals are 4.2 for Leones Negros UDG and 2.0 for Correcaminos Uat (total 6.2), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.72% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Leones Negros UDG have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Correcaminos Uat.

Season Stats

Leones Negros UDG
3W 5D 7L
Correcaminos Uat
4W 4D 7L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.3
1.7
Conceded
1.9
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
87%
47%
O 2.5
80%
60%
BTTS
80%
27%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Liga de Expansión MX. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
30%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Leones Negros UDG
4W 3D 3L · at home
Correcaminos Uat
1W 3D 6L · away
1.1
gls/g
0.9
0.8
Conceded
2.2
40%
Win %
10%
70%
Win or Draw
40%
50%
O 1.5
80%
30%
O 2.5
70%
20%
O 3.5
40%
40%
BTTS
60%
50%
Clean Sht
20%
30%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Leones Negros UDG Correcaminos Uat →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
1 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
2 1.8% 3.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5%
3 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7%
4 2.6% 5.2% 5.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7%
5 2.2% 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%

Recent form

Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG
W Cancún 0–2
W Tlaxcala 2–4
L Cancún 1–2
L Venados FC 2–1
W Monarcas 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Correcaminos Uat Correcaminos Uat
W Tepatitlán 3–1
D Mineros de Zacatecas 3–3
L Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–3
L Mineros de Zacatecas 3–1
L Cancún 1–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG
Attack
48
Defence
68
Form
57
Correcaminos Uat Correcaminos Uat
Attack
48
Defence
42
Form
42
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Leones Negros UDG
1
Draw
0
Correcaminos Uat
25 Jan 2026 Liga de Expansión MX 0–0
16 Aug 2025 Liga de Expansión MX 2–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG 2 6
2 Durango Durango 2 6
3 Venados FC Venados FC 2 4
4 Correcaminos Uat Correcaminos Uat 2 4
5 Mineros de Zacatecas Mineros de Zacatecas 2 4
6 Piratas Piratas 2 4
7 Tapatío Tapatío 2 4
8 Dorados Dorados 1 3
9 Monarcas Monarcas 2 3
10 Cruz Azul Hidalgo Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2 2
11 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 2 1
12 Cancún Cancún 1 0
13 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2 0
14 Tepatitlán Tepatitlán 2 0
15 Tlaxcala Tlaxcala 2 0
16 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Correcaminos Uat?
The model gives Leones Negros UDG a 39% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Correcaminos Uat win.
How many goals are expected in Leones Negros UDG vs Correcaminos Uat?
Expected goals: Leones Negros UDG 4.2, Correcaminos Uat 2.0 (total 6.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Leones Negros UDG vs Correcaminos Uat?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.72%.