Lesotho - Gabon
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
26.38%
Win
Lesotho
34.66%
Draw
38.96%
Win
Gabon
0.59
0.9
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
0–1
(15.31%)
1X2 Result
1
26%
X
35%
2
39%
Double Chance
1X
61%
X2
74%
12
65%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Gabon a 38% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 26% for Lesotho. Expected goals are 0.6 for Lesotho and 0.9 for Gabon (total 1.5), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 15.31% probability.
Season Stats
1W
1D
2L
1W
0D
1L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
1.0
1.2
Conceded
1.0
2.5
Shots OT
4.0
5.0
Corners
2.5
35%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
1W
0D
1L
· at home
0W
0D
1L
· away
1.0
gls/g
0.0
1.5
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
100%
last 2
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Lesotho
Gabon →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.7% | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Lesotho
Attack
18
Defence
53
Form
5
Gabon
Attack
34
Defence
62
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
What's at stake · Group A
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #2 |
| → Lesotho | #4 | #2 |
| → Draw | #4 | #2 |
| → Gabon | #4 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lesotho vs Gabon?
The model gives Lesotho a 26% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 38% for an Gabon win.
How many goals are expected in Lesotho vs Gabon?
Expected goals: Lesotho 0.6, Gabon 0.9 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Lesotho vs Gabon?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.31%.