Lesotho - Morocco
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 29, 2026 15:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
25.75%
Win
Lesotho
29.09%
Draw
45.16%
Win
Morocco
0.93
1.83
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.27%)
1X2 Result
1
26%
X
29%
2
45%
Double Chance
1X
55%
X2
74%
12
71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Morocco a 45% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Lesotho. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lesotho and 1.8 for Morocco (total 2.8), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.27% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Lesotho
Morocco →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Lesotho
Attack
17
Defence
57
Form
48
Morocco
Attack
45
Defence
74
Form
61
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lesotho vs Morocco?
The model gives Lesotho a 25% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 45% for an Morocco win.
How many goals are expected in Lesotho vs Morocco?
Expected goals: Lesotho 0.9, Morocco 1.8 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Lesotho vs Morocco?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.27%.