USL Championship · Group Stage August 09, 2026 01:00

Lexington

#4 · 48 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Phoenix Rising

#8 · 40 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Lexington

B. P. Rodrigues (ast. B. Ferri) 63'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lexington a 72% win probability (draw 16%, Phoenix Rising 11%). The final result was Lexington 1–0 Phoenix Rising. In 1 previous meetings, Lexington have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Phoenix Rising.

Match statistics

Match Events

31'

JP Scearce

↕ Nick Firmino / T. Scott

59'

⚽B. P. Rodrigues · ast. B. Ferri

63'

68'

L. Biasi / C. Smith ↕

68'

A. Pelayo / C. Ambursley ↕

↕ B. Ferri / M. Tschantret

74'

↕ J. Greene / J. Hafferty

77'

80'

G. Studenhofft / J. Moursou ↕

85'

L. Biasi

86'

C. Dennis / H. Avayevu ↕

86'

R. Czichos / P. Mar Boye ↕

A. Molloy

90'+5

Pre-match prediction

72.18%

Lexington ←

16.04%

X

11.79%

Phoenix

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Lexington) 72.18% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Lexington

2.40

—

—

Phoenix

0.68

—

—

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	New Mexico United	30	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	51
3	El Paso Locomotive	30	50
4	Lexington	30	48
5	Colorado Springs	30	47
6	San Antonio	30	45
7	FC Tulsa	30	43
8	Phoenix Rising	30	40
9	Orange County SC	30	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	30	36
12	Monterey Bay	30	24