Liberia - Mali
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 29, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
43.76%
Win
Liberia
30.55%
Draw
25.68%
Win
Mali
1.56
0.8
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.04%)
1X2 Result
1
44%
X
31%
2
26%
Double Chance
1X
74%
X2
56%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
51%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Liberia a 43% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Mali. Expected goals are 1.6 for Liberia and 0.8 for Mali (total 2.4), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.04% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Liberia
Mali →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | — |
| 1 | 14.7% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 2 | 11.5% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — |
| 3 | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Liberia
Attack
33
Defence
70
Form
55
Mali
Attack
10
Defence
68
Form
38
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Liberia vs Mali?
The model gives Liberia a 43% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 25% for an Mali win.
How many goals are expected in Liberia vs Mali?
Expected goals: Liberia 1.6, Mali 0.8 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Liberia vs Mali?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.04%.