← Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores · Group Stage - 3 April 29, 2026 00:00
Libertad Asuncion
#4 · 0 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Independiente del Valle
#2 · 7 pts
Lorenzo Melgarejo (ast. Federico Carrizo) 37'
Lorenzo Melgarejo 85' (pen.)
33' (ast. Layan Loor) Carlos Gonzalez
51' (ast. Arón Rodríguez) Carlos Gonzalez
65' (ast. Jordy Alcivar) Carlos Gonzalez

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 46% win probability (draw 27%, Libertad Asuncion 26%). The final result was Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
1.15
Actual xG
0.79
3
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
0
Corners
6
20
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
33'
ast. Layan Loor · Carlos Gonzalez⚽
⚽Lorenzo Melgarejo · ast. Federico Carrizo
37'
38'
↕ Iván Franco / Marcelo Fernandez
46'
51'
ast. Arón Rodríguez · Carlos Gonzalez⚽
Álvaro Campuzano
54'
Federico Carrizo
58'
↕ Lucas Sanabria / Amin Molinas
64'
↕ Federico Carrizo / Gustavo Aguilar
64'
65'
ast. Jordy Alcivar · Carlos Gonzalez⚽
70'
Emerson Pata / Matías Perello ↕
70'
Darwin Guagua / Arón Rodríguez ↕
↕ Alexis Fretes / Matías Rojas
72'
↕ Robert Rojas / Iván Ramírez
72'
77'
Jhegson Méndez / Jordy Alcivar ↕
77'
Youri Ochoa / Justin Lerma ↕
81'
Juan Angulo / Carlos Gonzalez ↕
⚽Lorenzo Melgarejo (pen.)
85'
Gustavo Aguilar
87'
90'+1
Layan Loor
90'
Ronald Briones
Pre-match prediction
26.22%
Libertad
27.4%
X
46.38%
Independiente ←
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle) 46.38% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Libertad
0.82
1.15
+0.32
Independiente
1.52
0.79
-0.73
Libertad Asuncion dominated by xG (1.15 vs 0.79). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 4 7
1 U. Catolica U. Catolica 4 7
1 Mirassol Mirassol 4 9
1 Flamengo Flamengo 3 7
1 Corinthians Corinthians 4 10
1 Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 4 10
1 Rosario Central Rosario Central 4 10
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4 8
2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 4 7
2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 4 7
2 Platense Platense 4 7
2 Bolívar Bolívar 4 5
2 Lanus Lanus 4 6
2 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 4 7
2 Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido 4 7
2 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 4 6
3 UCV UCV 4 6
3 Penarol Penarol 4 2
3 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 4 6
3 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 4 6
3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3 4
3 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 4 3
3 Universitario Universitario 4 4
3 LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 4 6
4 Cusco Cusco 4 1
4 Always Ready Always Ready 4 3
4 Club Nacional Club Nacional 4 4
4 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 4 3
4 Fluminense Fluminense 4 2
4 Junior Junior 4 1
4 Santa Fe Santa Fe 4 2
4 Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 4 0
Lineups
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 4-2-3-1
12 Rodrigo Morínigo Rodrigo Morínigo G 6.90
17
Matías Espinoza D 6.20
4 N. Giménez N. Giménez D 6.60
5 Diego Viera Diego Viera D 6.90
3
Robert Rojas 72' D 6.30
6 Álvaro Campuzano Álvaro Campuzano M 6.30
21 Lucas Sanabria Lucas Sanabria 64' M 6.30
14 A. Fretes A. Fretes 72' M 6.50
8 F. Carrizo F. Carrizo 1 👟 64' M 6.60
18
I. Franco 45' M 6.60
10 L. Melgarejo L. Melgarejo 2 ⚽ F 9.20
Bench
27 Amin Molinas Amin Molinas 26' M 6.30
34 Estiven Villalba Estiven Villalba D
11 Gustavo Aguilar Gustavo Aguilar 26' F 6.60
2 Iván Ramírez Iván Ramírez 18' D 7.50
19 Jorge Recalde Jorge Recalde M
28 Marcelo Fernandez Marcelo Fernandez 45' F 6.30
7 Matías Rojas Matías Rojas 18' M 6.70
24
R. Villalba D
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
1 Aldair Quintana Aldair Quintana G 6.90
19 L. Loor L. Loor 1 👟 D 6.90
33 Andy Velasco Andy Velasco D 6.70
14
M. Carabajal D 6.90
13 Daykol Romero Daykol Romero D 6.90
6 Jordy Alcivar Jordy Alcivar 1 👟 77' M 7.70
17 A. Rodríguez A. Rodríguez 1 👟 70' M 7.60
16 Ronald Briones Ronald Briones M 5.90
53 Justin Lerma Justin Lerma 77' M 6.90
11 M. Perelló M. Perelló 70' M 6.70
9 C. González C. González 3 ⚽ 81' F 9.90
Bench
55 Darwin Guagua Darwin Guagua 20' M 6.20
99 D. Reasco D. Reasco F
31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez 20' F 6.30
32 Jhegson Méndez Jhegson Méndez 13' M 5.00
4 Jhon Espinoza Jhon Espinoza D
50 Juan Angulo Juan Angulo 9' F 6.30
8 Youri Ochoa Youri Ochoa 13' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
C. González
C. González
F · Independiente
9.90
3 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
L. Melgarejo
L. Melgarejo
F · Libertad
9.20
2 ⚽
6 shots · 21 pass
Jordy Alcivar
Jordy Alcivar
M · Independiente
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 38 pass
A. Rodríguez
A. Rodríguez
M · Independiente
7.60
1 👟
3 shots · 25 pass
Iván Ramírez
Iván Ramírez
D · Libertad
7.50
· 7 pass
Justin Lerma
Justin Lerma
M · Independiente
6.90
· 32 pass
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rodrigo Morínigo G 90 6.90 — — — 22 12% — — —
Matías Espinoza D 90 6.20 — — — 27 22% — — —
N. Giménez D 90 6.60 — — — 42 37% 2 — —
Diego Viera D 90 6.90 — — — 38 33% — — —
Robert Rojas D 72 6.30 — — — 14 13% 2 — —
Álvaro Campuzano M 90 6.30 — — — 39 35% 3 1 —
Lucas Sanabria M 64 6.30 — — — 21 14% 4 — —
A. Fretes M 72 6.50 — — 1 16 14% 3 — —
F. Carrizo M 64 6.60 — 1 — 23 17% — 1 —
I. Franco M 45 6.60 — — 1 13 10% 1 — —
L. Melgarejo F 90 9.20 2 — 6 21 14% — — —
Amin Molinas M 26 6.30 — — — 30 26% — — —
Gustavo Aguilar F 26 6.60 — — — 6 6% 1 1 —
Iván Ramírez D 18 7.50 — — — 7 6% — — —
Marcelo Fernandez F 45 6.30 — — — 13 9% 3 — —
Matías Rojas M 18 6.70 — — — 15 9% 1 — —
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Aldair Quintana G 90 6.90 — — — 30 22% — — —
L. Loor D 90 6.90 — 1 1 52 42% — 1 —
Andy Velasco D 90 6.70 — — — 61 54% — — —
M. Carabajal D 90 6.90 — — 1 69 64% — — —
Daykol Romero D 90 6.90 — — 2 52 46% 2 — —
Jordy Alcivar M 77 7.70 — 1 1 38 33% 1 — —
A. Rodríguez M 70 7.60 — 1 3 25 21% 2 — —
Ronald Briones M 90 5.90 — — — 17 12% 4 1 —
Justin Lerma M 77 6.90 — — — 32 28% 1 — —
M. Perelló M 70 6.70 — — — 22 14% 2 — —
C. González F 81 9.90 3 — 3 24 15% 2 — —
Darwin Guagua M 20 6.20 — — — 5 5% — — —
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez F 20 6.30 — — — 6 4% — — —
Jhegson Méndez M 13 5.00 — — — 4 2% 1 — —
Juan Angulo F 9 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
Youri Ochoa M 13 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
The final score was Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle.
What did the model predict before Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
The model assigned 26% probability to a Libertad Asuncion win, 27% to a draw, and 46% to an Independiente del Valle win.