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#4 · 0 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Lorenzo Melgarejo (ast. Federico Carrizo) 37'
Lorenzo Melgarejo 85' (pen.)
33' (ast. Layan Loor) Carlos Gonzalez
51' (ast. Arón Rodríguez) Carlos Gonzalez
65' (ast. Jordy Alcivar) Carlos Gonzalez
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 46% win probability (draw 27%, Libertad Asuncion 26%). The final result was Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle. In 1 previous meetings, Libertad Asuncion have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Independiente del Valle.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
1.15
Actual xG
0.79
3
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
0
Corners
6
20
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
33'
ast. Layan Loor · Carlos Gonzalez
Lorenzo Melgarejo · ast. Federico Carrizo
37'
38'
Iván Franco / Marcelo Fernandez
46'
51'
ast. Arón Rodríguez · Carlos Gonzalez
Álvaro Campuzano
54'
Federico Carrizo
58'
Lucas Sanabria / Amin Molinas
64'
Federico Carrizo / Gustavo Aguilar
64'
65'
ast. Jordy Alcivar · Carlos Gonzalez
70'
Emerson Pata / Matías Perello
70'
Darwin Guagua / Arón Rodríguez
Alexis Fretes / Matías Rojas
72'
Robert Rojas / Iván Ramírez
72'
77'
Jhegson Méndez / Jordy Alcivar
77'
Youri Ochoa / Justin Lerma
81'
Juan Angulo / Carlos Gonzalez
Lorenzo Melgarejo (pen.)
85'
Gustavo Aguilar
87'
90'+1
Layan Loor
90'
Ronald Briones
Pre-match prediction
26.22%
Libertad
27.4%
X
46.38%
Independiente ←
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle) 46.38% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Libertad
0.82
1.15
+0.32
Independiente
1.52
0.79
-0.73
Libertad Asuncion dominated by xG (1.15 vs 0.79). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 6 13
2 Rosario Central Rosario Central 6 13
3 UCV UCV 6 9
4 Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 6 0
Lineups
12 Rodrigo Morínigo Rodrigo Morínigo G 6.90
17 Matías Espinoza Matías Espinoza D 6.20
4 N. Giménez N. Giménez D 6.60
5 Diego Viera Diego Viera D 6.90
3 R. Rojas R. Rojas 72' D 6.30
6 Á. Campuzano Á. Campuzano M 6.30
21 Lucas Sanabria Lucas Sanabria 64' M 6.30
14 A. Fretes A. Fretes 72' M 6.50
8 F. Carrizo F. Carrizo 1 👟 64' M 6.60
18 Iván Franco Iván Franco 45' M 6.60
10 L. Melgarejo L. Melgarejo 2 ⚽ F 9.20
Bench
27 Amin Molinas Amin Molinas 26' M 6.30
34 Estiven Villalba Estiven Villalba D
11 G. Aguilar G. Aguilar 26' F 6.60
2 I. Ramírez I. Ramírez 18' D 7.50
19 Jorge Recalde Jorge Recalde M
28 Marcelo Fernandez Marcelo Fernandez 45' F 6.30
7 Matías Rojas Matías Rojas 18' M 6.70
24 Rodrigo Villalba Rodrigo Villalba D
1 Aldair Quintana Aldair Quintana G 6.90
19 Layan Loor Layan Loor 1 👟 D 6.90
33 Andy Velasco Andy Velasco D 6.70
14 Mateo Carabajal Mateo Carabajal D 6.90
13 Daykol Romero Daykol Romero D 6.90
6 Jordy Alcivar Jordy Alcivar 1 👟 77' M 7.70
17 Arón Rodríguez Arón Rodríguez 1 👟 70' M 7.60
16 Ronald Briones Ronald Briones M 5.90
53 Justin Lerma Justin Lerma 77' M 6.90
11 Matías Perello Matías Perello 70' M 6.70
9 C. González C. González 3 ⚽ 81' F 9.90
Bench
55 Darwin Guagua Darwin Guagua 20' M 6.20
99 Djorkaeff Reasco Djorkaeff Reasco F
31 Emerson Pata Emerson Pata 20' F 6.30
32 Jhegson Méndez Jhegson Méndez 13' M 5.00
4 Jhon Espinoza Jhon Espinoza D
50 Juan Angulo Juan Angulo 9' F 6.30
8 Youri Ochoa Youri Ochoa 13' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
C. González
C. González
F · Independiente
9.90
3 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
L. Melgarejo
L. Melgarejo
F · Libertad
9.20
2 ⚽
6 shots · 21 pass
Jordy Alcivar
Jordy Alcivar
M · Independiente
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 38 pass
Arón Rodríguez
Arón Rodríguez
M · Independiente
7.60
1 👟
3 shots · 25 pass
I. Ramírez
I. Ramírez
D · Libertad
7.50
· 7 pass
Justin Lerma
Justin Lerma
M · Independiente
6.90
· 32 pass
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rodrigo Morínigo G 90 6.90 22 12%
Matías Espinoza D 90 6.20 27 22%
N. Giménez D 90 6.60 42 37% 2
Diego Viera D 90 6.90 38 33%
R. Rojas D 72 6.30 14 13% 2
Á. Campuzano M 90 6.30 39 35% 3 1
Lucas Sanabria M 64 6.30 21 14% 4
A. Fretes M 72 6.50 1 16 14% 3
F. Carrizo M 64 6.60 1 23 17% 1
Iván Franco M 45 6.60 1 13 10% 1
L. Melgarejo F 90 9.20 2 6 21 14%
Amin Molinas M 26 6.30 30 26%
G. Aguilar F 26 6.60 6 6% 1 1
I. Ramírez D 18 7.50 7 6%
Marcelo Fernandez F 45 6.30 13 9% 3
Matías Rojas M 18 6.70 15 9% 1
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Aldair Quintana G 90 6.90 30 22%
Layan Loor D 90 6.90 1 1 52 42% 1
Andy Velasco D 90 6.70 61 54%
Mateo Carabajal D 90 6.90 1 69 64%
Daykol Romero D 90 6.90 2 52 46% 2
Jordy Alcivar M 77 7.70 1 1 38 33% 1
Arón Rodríguez M 70 7.60 1 3 25 21% 2
Ronald Briones M 90 5.90 17 12% 4 1
Justin Lerma M 77 6.90 32 28% 1
Matías Perello M 70 6.70 22 14% 2
C. González F 81 9.90 3 3 24 15% 2
Darwin Guagua M 20 6.20 5 5%
Emerson Pata F 20 6.30 6 4%
Jhegson Méndez M 13 5.00 4 2% 1
Juan Angulo F 9 6.30 2 1%
Youri Ochoa M 13 6.50 3 2%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
The final score was Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle.
What did the model predict before Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
The model assigned 26% probability to a Libertad Asuncion win, 27% to a draw, and 46% to an Independiente del Valle win.