✗Model wrong — prediction Libertad, result Draw
cristhian valencia
45'+1
61'
(ast. Ronie Carrillo)
Jose Francisco Cevallos
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Libertad a 65% win probability (draw 17%, Emelec 17%). The final result was Libertad 1–1 Emelec. In 2 previous meetings, Libertad have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Emelec.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
12
8
Shots on target
4
3
Saves
7
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
5
10
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
16'
Jefferson Valverde
⚽cristhian valencia
45'+1
Rodrigo Morinigo
51'
56'
Gonzalo Nápoli
/
Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez
56'
Reixon David Saya Paredes
/
Francisco Pizzini
56'
Jose Francisco Cevallos
/
Angelo Mina
61'
ast. Ronie Carrillo ·
Jose Francisco Cevallos⚽
Edu Pineda
/ Jostin Bravo
63'
Bryan Caicedo
63'
Antony Chere
/ Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja
70'
D. Coronel
/ Gabriel Cortez
70'
76'
Víctor Griffith
/
luis Fragozo
Vilinton German Branda Merlin
/ Carlos Orejuela
83'
85'
Luca Klimowicz
/
Ronie Carrillo
Pre-match prediction
65.15%
Libertad
17.45%
X ←
17.4%
Emelec
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
17.45%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.86
—
—
1.15
—
—
Lineups
12
David Cabezas
G
David Cabezas
G
20
J. Rodríguez
D
J. Rodríguez
D
19
Orlin Quinonez
D
Orlin Quinonez
D
2
Rodrigo Morinigo
D
Rodrigo Morinigo
D
6
B. Caicedo
D
B. Caicedo
D
17
E. Patta
D
E. Patta
D
49
Dany Coronel
70'
M
Dany Coronel
70'
M
80
Xavier Pineda
63'
M
Xavier Pineda
63'
M
63
Cristhian Valencia
1 ⚽
M
Cristhian Valencia
1 ⚽
M
70
Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
83'
M
Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
83'
M
33
Antony Chére
70'
F
Antony Chére
70'
F
Bench
5
Carlos Gruezo
M
Carlos Gruezo
M
7
Carlos Orejuela
7'
M
Carlos Orejuela
7'
M
9
Enrique Caicedo
20'
F
Enrique Caicedo
20'
F
10
G. Cortéz
20'
M
G. Cortéz
20'
M
11
Hancel Batalla
F
Hancel Batalla
F
66
Johan Estacio
M
Johan Estacio
M
30
Jostin Bravo
27'
M
Jostin Bravo
27'
M
25
Manuel Lucas
D
Manuel Lucas
D
1
P. Mina
G
P. Mina
G
8
Stick Castro
M
Stick Castro
M
18
Yerlin Quinonez
D
Yerlin Quinonez
D
1
Mario Valero
G
Mario Valero
G
30
Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra
D
Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra
D
2
A. Leguizamón
D
A. Leguizamón
D
27
Luis Fernando León
D
Luis Fernando León
D
13
Luis Gomez
D
Luis Gomez
D
19
Juan Ruiz Gómez
56'
M
Juan Ruiz Gómez
56'
M
32
Jefferson Valverde
M
Jefferson Valverde
M
5
Angelo Mina
56'
M
Angelo Mina
56'
M
15
Luis Fragozo
76'
M
Luis Fragozo
76'
M
10
F. Pizzini
56'
M
F. Pizzini
56'
M
9
R. Carrillo
1 👟
85'
F
R. Carrillo
1 👟
85'
F
Bench
90
Eduardo David Bores Díaz
G
Eduardo David Bores Díaz
G
4
E. Segura
D
E. Segura
D
8
G. Nápoli
34'
M
G. Nápoli
34'
M
17
Jaime Ayoví
F
Jaime Ayoví
F
21
José Cevallos
1 ⚽
34'
M
José Cevallos
1 ⚽
34'
M
7
L. Klimowicz
5'
F
L. Klimowicz
5'
F
80
Orlando Herrera
D
Orlando Herrera
D
59
Reixon Saya
34'
F
Reixon Saya
34'
F
16
Sergio Quintero
M
Sergio Quintero
M
51
Stalin Valencia
D
Stalin Valencia
D
11
Teodoro Arce
M
Teodoro Arce
M
6
Víctor Griffith
14'
M
Víctor Griffith
14'
M
Best on the pitch
José Cevallos
M · Emelec
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
Cristhian Valencia
M · Libertad
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 40 pass
Mario Valero
G · Emelec
7.89
· 24 pass
R. Carrillo
F · Emelec
7.59
1 👟
3 shots
· 17 pass
A. Leguizamón
D · Emelec
7.05
1 shots
· 56 pass
J. Rodríguez
D · Libertad
6.97
· 35 pass
Libertad — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Cabezas | G | 90 | 6.84 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.97 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Orlin Quinonez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Morinigo | D | 90 | 6.01 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 33% | 2 | 1 | — |
| B. Caicedo | D | 90 | 5.76 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Patta | D | 90 | 6.38 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Dany Coronel | M | 70 | 6.33 | — | — | 0 | 26 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| Xavier Pineda | M | 63 | 6.64 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 31% | 0 | — | — |
| Cristhian Valencia | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 40 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín | M | 83 | 6.45 | — | — | 5 | 21 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| Antony Chére | F | 70 | 6.62 | — | — | 4 | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Orejuela | M | 7 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Enrique Caicedo | F | 20 | 6.74 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Cortéz | M | 20 | 6.55 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| Jostin Bravo | M | 27 | 6.25 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
Emelec — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Valero | G | 90 | 7.89 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra | D | 90 | 6.22 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Leguizamón | D | 90 | 7.05 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Luis Fernando León | D | 90 | 6.74 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Gomez | D | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Ruiz Gómez | M | 56 | 6.75 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| Jefferson Valverde | M | 90 | 6.28 | — | — | 0 | 51 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Angelo Mina | M | 56 | 6.45 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Fragozo | M | 76 | 6.26 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Pizzini | M | 56 | 6.02 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Carrillo | F | 85 | 7.59 | — | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Nápoli | M | 34 | 6.55 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| José Cevallos | M | 34 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Klimowicz | F | 5 | 6.57 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| Reixon Saya | F | 34 | 6.44 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| Víctor Griffith | M | 14 | 6.24 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Libertad vs Emelec?
The final score was Libertad 1–1 Emelec.
What did the model predict before Libertad vs Emelec?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Libertad win, 17% to a draw, and 17% to an Emelec win.