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Libertad - Independiente del Valle

LigaPro September 14, 2026 01:00 Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Libertad
#7 · 41 pts
vs
Independiente del Valle
#1 · 71 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌦️ Light drizzle 15.0°C 💨 11 km/h 🌧️ 33% · Loja
⚡ Pre-match analysis
47.75%
Win
Libertad
18.0%
Draw
34.25%
Win
Independiente del Valle
2.91
Expected xG
2.32

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (6.17%)
1X2 Result ✓ 71.9% hit rate (32 picks)
1 48%
X 18%
2 34%
Double Chance ✓ 96.9% hit rate (32 picks)
1X 66%
X2 52%
12 82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 60%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Libertad a 47% win probability, against 18% for a draw and 34% for Independiente del Valle. Expected goals are 2.9 for Libertad and 2.3 for Independiente del Valle (total 5.2), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 6.17% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Libertad have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Independiente del Valle.

Season Stats

Libertad
8W 3D 4L
Independiente del Valle
12W 1D 2L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
2.9
0.9
Conceded
1.2
4.1
Shots OT
6.4
3.0
Corners
5.8
40%
Poss.
56%
Percentages
53%
O 1.5
93%
40%
O 2.5
87%
40%
BTTS
67%
47%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in LigaPro. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
35%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Libertad
6W 1D 3L · at home
Independiente del Valle
9W 0D 1L · away
1.3
gls/g
2.7
0.9
Conceded
1.1
60%
Win %
90%
70%
Win or Draw
90%
50%
O 1.5
90%
40%
O 2.5
80%
20%
O 3.5
50%
40%
BTTS
60%
40%
Clean Sht
40%
20%
Failed to Score
0%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Libertad Independiente del Valle →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%
1 1.5% 3.6% 4.2% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9%
2 2.3% 5.2% 6.1% 4.7% 2.7% 1.3%
3 2.2% 5.1% 5.9% 4.6% 2.7% 1.2%
4 1.6% 3.7% 4.3% 3.3% 1.9% 0.9%
5 0.9% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%

Recent form

Libertad Libertad
W Deportivo Cuenca 0–1
D Emelec 1–1
L Aucas 1–0
W Macara 1–0
D Guayaquil City FC 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 43%
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
W Macara 3–1
L Barcelona SC 2–1
D Universidad Catolica 2–2
W Leones del Norte 2–3
W Delfin SC 3–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Libertad Libertad
Attack
44
Defence
69
Form
63
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
Attack
57
Defence
61
Form
67
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Libertad
0
Draw
0
Independiente del Valle
23 May 2026 LigaPro 3–2

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 29 71
2 Aucas Aucas 30 50
3 Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 29 48
4 Macara Macara 29 48
5 LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 30 46
6 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 29 43
7 Libertad Libertad 29 41
8 Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 29 39
9 Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 30 39
10 Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 30 38
11 Emelec Emelec 29 36
12 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 30 36
13 Orense SC Orense SC 29 33
14 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 29 29
15 Delfin SC Delfin SC 29 27
16 Manta FC Manta FC 30 21
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives Libertad a 47% win probability, 18% for a draw, and 34% for an Independiente del Valle win.
How many goals are expected in Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Expected goals: Libertad 2.9, Independiente del Valle 2.3 (total 5.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.17%.