Ligue 1
· Regular Season - 32
May 03, 2026 15:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Lille, result Draw
H. Haraldsson
(ast. R. Perraud)
29'
33'
I. Soumare
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lille a 71% win probability (draw 18%, Le Havre 9%). The final result was Lille 1–1 Le Havre. In 2 previous meetings, Lille have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Le Havre.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
2
10
Shots on target
2
1.49
Actual xG
0.14
1
Saves
9
66%
Possession
34%
13
Corners
5
11
Tackles
27
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
5'
L. Gourna-Douath
⚽H. Haraldsson
· ast. R. Perraud
29'
33'
I. Soumare⚽
35'
A. Seko
T. Meunier
43'
A. Mandi
59'
65'
Y. Kechta
/
S. Boufal
65'
T. Pembele
/
F. Doucoure
N. Mukau
/ E. Mbappe
66'
74'
I. Soumare
R. Perraud
/ C. Verdonk
74'
F. Correia
/ O. Giroud
74'
75'
E. K. Vinette
/
Y. Zouaoui
A. Bouaddi
/ G. Perrin
85'
T. Meunier
/ T. Santos
85'
88'
E. Youte Kinkoue
/
A. Samatta
Pre-match prediction
71.53%
Lille
18.78%
X ←
9.7%
Le
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.78%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.65
1.49
-1.16
0.91
0.14
-0.77
Lille dominated by xG (1.49 vs 0.14).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
B. Özer
G
B. Özer
G
15
R. Perraud
1 👟
74'
D
R. Perraud
1 👟
74'
D
23
A. Mandi
D
A. Mandi
D
3
N. Ngoy
D
N. Ngoy
D
12
T. Meunier
85'
D
T. Meunier
85'
D
21
B. André
M
B. André
M
32
A. Bouaddi
84'
M
A. Bouaddi
84'
M
27
Félix Correia
74'
M
Félix Correia
74'
M
10
H. Haraldsson
1 ⚽
M
H. Haraldsson
1 ⚽
M
17
N. Mukau
66'
M
N. Mukau
66'
M
7
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
Bench
18
C. Mbemba
D
C. Mbemba
D
24
C. Verdonk
21'
D
C. Verdonk
21'
D
8
E. Mbappé
29'
M
E. Mbappé
29'
M
28
G. Perrin
11'
F
G. Perrin
11'
F
9
O. Giroud
21'
F
O. Giroud
21'
F
22
Tiago Santos
10'
D
Tiago Santos
10'
D
99
M. Diaw
G
M. Diaw
G
18
Y. Zouaoui
75'
D
Y. Zouaoui
75'
D
4
G. Lloris
D
G. Lloris
D
15
A. Seko
D
A. Seko
D
7
L. Négo
D
19
L. Gourna-Douath
M
L. Gourna-Douath
M
26
S. Ebonog
M
S. Ebonog
M
45
I. Soumaré
1 ⚽
M
I. Soumaré
1 ⚽
M
17
Sofiane Boufal
65'
M
Sofiane Boufal
65'
M
13
F. Doucouré
64'
M
F. Doucouré
64'
M
25
M. Samatta
88'
F
M. Samatta
88'
F
Bench
27
E. Koffi Vinette
20'
F
E. Koffi Vinette
20'
F
10
Felix Mambimbi
F
Felix Mambimbi
F
77
L. Mpasi
G
L. Mpasi
G
32
T. Pembélé
31'
D
T. Pembélé
31'
D
8
Y. Kechta
30'
M
Y. Kechta
30'
M
Best on the pitch
M. Diaw
G · Le
8.50
· 31 pass
H. Haraldsson
M · Lille
8.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 49 pass
G. Lloris
D · Le
7.50
· 22 pass
I. Soumaré
M · Le
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
N. Mukau
M · Lille
7.30
1 shots
· 44 pass
B. André
M · Lille
7.30
· 54 pass
Lille — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Özer | G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Perraud | D | 74 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| A. Mandi | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 60 | 54% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Ngoy | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Meunier | D | 85 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 48 | 43% | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. André | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 54 | 46% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Bouaddi | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Félix Correia | M | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 27 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Haraldsson | M | 95 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 49 | 44% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Mukau | M | 66 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 43% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | F | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| C. Verdonk | D | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Mbappé | M | 29 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| G. Perrin | F | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| O. Giroud | F | 21 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Santos | D | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
Le Havre — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Diaw | G | 95 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Y. Zouaoui | D | 75 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 4 | — | — |
| G. Lloris | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Seko | D | 95 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Négo | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Gourna-Douath | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | 4 | 1 | — |
| S. Ebonog | M | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Soumaré | M | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Sofiane Boufal | M | 65 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| F. Doucouré | M | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Samatta | F | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| E. Koffi Vinette | F | 20 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| T. Pembélé | D | 31 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Kechta | M | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lille vs Le Havre?
The final score was Lille 1–1 Le Havre.
What did the model predict before Lille vs Le Havre?
The model assigned 71% probability to a Lille win, 18% to a draw, and 9% to an Le Havre win.