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Championship · Regular Season - 12 October 24, 2026 16:00 Sincil Bank, Lincoln
Lincoln
#15 · 15 pts
4 – 1
Final score
Burnley
#22 · 8 pts
Ben House (ast. Andrei Coubiș) 45'+3
Mikkel Ladefoged 49'
Dom Jefferies 57'
Mikkel Ladefoged (ast. Ben House) 67'
39' (ast. Lucas Pires Silva) Andréas Hountondji
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Burnley a 36% win probability (draw 30%, Lincoln 32%). The final result was Lincoln 4–1 Burnley.

Match statistics
21
Total shots
8
7
Shots on target
4
1.94
Actual xG
2.37
2
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
2
Corners
5
11
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
13'
Andréas Hountondji / Armando Broja ↕
39'
ast. Lucas Pires Silva · Andréas Hountondji⚽
⚽Ben House · ast. Andrei Coubiș
45'+3
45'
Connor Roberts / Kyle Walker ↕
⚽Mikkel Ladefoged
49'
⚽Dom Jefferies
57'
59'
Oliver Sonne / Dastan Satpaev ↕
⚽Mikkel Ladefoged · ast. Ben House
67'
67'
Grégoire Coudert
Ben House
73'
74'
Marcus Edwards / Max Alleyne ↕
74'
Ugo Raghouber / Reo Hatate ↕
↕ Sonny Bradley / Ryley Towler
81'
↕ Mikkel Ladefoged / Robert Nicholas Street
81'
↕ Reeco Hackett-Fairchild / Chiedozie Ogbene
81'
84'
(missed pen.) Marcus Edwards⚽
↕ Conor McGrandles / Ivan Varfolomeev
89'
↕ Dom Jefferies / Daniel Oyegoke
89'
Pre-match prediction
32.94%
Lincoln ←
30.69%
X
36.37%
Burnley
we assigned to the actual result (Lincoln) 32.94% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Lincoln
0.95
1.94
+0.99
Burnley
1.12
2.37
+1.25
Burnley dominated by xG (2.37 vs 1.94). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Lincoln Lincoln 4-2-3-1
1 G. Wickens G. Wickens G 6.69
3 A. Reach A. Reach D 6.57
25 D. Elerewe D. Elerewe D 6.83
15 S. Bradley S. Bradley 81' D 6.80
4 A. Coubiș A. Coubiș 1 👟 D 7.35
26 Y. Konak Y. Konak M 6.89
14 C. McGrandles C. McGrandles 89' M 6.60
16 D. Jefferies D. Jefferies 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.02
18 B. House B. House 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.21
7 R. Hackett R. Hackett 81' M 6.49
11 M. Ladefoged M. Ladefoged 2 ⚽ 81' F 8.55
Bench
20 C. Elder C. Elder D 0.00
27 C. Ogbene C. Ogbene 9' F 6.51
33 D. Oyegoke D. Oyegoke 1' D 6.24
19 I. Olaofe I. Olaofe F 0.00
24 I. Varfolomeev I. Varfolomeev 1' M 6.39
46 J. Gauci J. Gauci G 0.00
17 R. Street R. Street 9' F 7.00
6 R. Towler R. Towler 9' D 6.23
8 T. Bayliss T. Bayliss M 0.00
Burnley Burnley 4-2-3-1
37 G. Coudert G. Coudert G 6.18
23 Lucas Pires Lucas Pires 1 👟 D 5.90
44 Igor Igor D 5.96
18 H. Ekdal H. Ekdal D 5.81
2 K. Walker K. Walker 45' D 5.93
5 R. Hatate R. Hatate 74' M 5.69
3 Max Alleyne Max Alleyne 74' M 6.41
12 D. Satpaev D. Satpaev 59' M 5.76
29 J. Laurent J. Laurent M 5.09
19 L. Ramazani L. Ramazani M 5.30
27 A. Broja A. Broja 13' F 6.28
Bench
17 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 1 ⚽ 77' F 7.50
14 C. Roberts C. Roberts 45' D 5.55
48 E. Agyei E. Agyei F 0.00
41 G. Brierley G. Brierley M 0.00
30 L. Castell L. Castell F 0.00
10 M. Edwards M. Edwards 16' F 6.41
1 M. Weiß M. Weiß G 0.00
22 O. Sonne O. Sonne 31' D 5.70
8 U. Raghouber U. Raghouber 16' M 5.64
Best on the pitch
M. Ladefoged
M. Ladefoged
F · Lincoln
8.55
2 ⚽
4 shots · 14 pass
B. House
B. House
M · Lincoln
8.21
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 20 pass
D. Jefferies
D. Jefferies
M · Lincoln
8.02
1 ⚽
5 shots · 18 pass
A. Hountondji
A. Hountondji
F · Burnley
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
A. Coubiș
A. Coubiș
D · Lincoln
7.35
1 👟
· 42 pass
R. Street
R. Street
F · Lincoln
7.00
1 shots
Lincoln Lincoln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Wickens G 90 6.69 — — 1 53 40% 0 — —
A. Reach D 90 6.57 — — 2 41 31% 3 — —
D. Elerewe D 90 6.83 — — 1 48 36% 0 — —
S. Bradley D 81 6.80 — — 0 58 47% 0 — —
A. Coubiș D 90 7.35 — 1 0 42 36% 0 — —
Y. Konak M 90 6.89 — — 1 40 38% 2 — —
C. McGrandles M 89 6.60 — — 1 40 35% 2 — —
D. Jefferies M 89 8.02 1 — 5 18 11% 4 — —
B. House M 90 8.21 1 1 3 20 16% 0 1 —
R. Hackett M 81 6.49 — — 2 25 21% 0 — —
M. Ladefoged F 81 8.55 2 — 4 14 9% 0 — —
C. Ogbene F 9 6.51 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
D. Oyegoke D 1 6.24 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
I. Varfolomeev M 1 6.39 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
R. Street F 9 7.00 — — 1 0 0% 0 — —
R. Towler D 9 6.23 — — 0 8 7% 0 — —
Burnley Burnley — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Coudert G 90 6.18 — — 0 29 11% 0 1 —
Lucas Pires D 90 5.90 — 1 0 35 22% 4 — —
Igor D 90 5.96 — — 0 57 49% 0 — —
H. Ekdal D 90 5.81 — — 0 45 35% 0 — —
K. Walker D 45 5.93 — — 0 25 21% 3 — —
R. Hatate M 74 5.69 — — 0 34 24% 2 — —
Max Alleyne M 74 6.41 — — 1 31 27% 0 — —
D. Satpaev M 59 5.76 — — 1 18 15% 0 — —
J. Laurent M 90 5.09 — — 0 32 18% 2 — —
L. Ramazani M 90 5.30 — — 2 37 23% 1 — —
A. Broja F 13 6.28 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
A. Hountondji F 77 7.50 1 — 2 12 8% 0 — —
C. Roberts D 45 5.55 — — 0 27 21% 2 — —
M. Edwards F 16 6.41 — — 1 9 9% 0 — —
O. Sonne D 31 5.70 — — 0 12 9% 0 — —
U. Raghouber M 16 5.64 — — 1 9 7% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lincoln vs Burnley?
The final score was Lincoln 4–1 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Lincoln vs Burnley?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Lincoln win, 30% to a draw, and 36% to an Burnley win.