Lithuania - Azerbaijan
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.35%
Win
Lithuania
21.03%
Draw
36.62%
Win
Azerbaijan
1.99
1.91
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(7.73%)
1X2 Result
1
42%
X
21%
2
37%
Double Chance
1X
63%
X2
58%
12
79%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
83%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Lithuania a 42% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Azerbaijan. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lithuania and 1.9 for Azerbaijan (total 3.9), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 7.73% probability.
Season Stats
0W
0D
6L
0W
1D
5L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.5
1.8
Conceded
2.8
3.5
Shots OT
4.2
2.7
Corners
5.0
54%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
83%
67%
O 2.5
67%
67%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ
Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
34%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
0W
0D
3L
· at home
0W
0D
3L
· away
0.7
gls/g
0.3
1.7
Conceded
3.7
0%
Win %
0%
0%
Win or Draw
0%
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
67%
0%
O 3.5
67%
67%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
33%
Failed to Score
67%
last 3
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Lithuania
Azerbaijan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Playing profile
Lithuania
Attack
23
Defence
59
Form
44
Azerbaijan
Attack
33
Defence
61
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
UEFA Nations League , League D, Group 2
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lithuania
|
0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Azerbaijan
|
0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Liechtenstein
|
0 | 0 |
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League D, Group 2
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #2 |
| → Lithuania | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Azerbaijan | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
The model gives Lithuania a 42% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 36% for an Azerbaijan win.
How many goals are expected in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Expected goals: Lithuania 2.0, Azerbaijan 1.9 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.73%.