Premier League
· Regular Season - 36
May 09, 2026 13:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Liverpool, result Pareggio
R. Gravenberch
(ast. R. Ngumoha)
6'
35'
E. Fernandez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Liverpool a 66% win probability (draw 16%, Chelsea 16%). The final result was Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea. In 1 previous meetings, Liverpool have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Chelsea.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
3
0.51
Actual xG
0.47
2
Saves
2
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
2
10
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽R. Gravenberch
· ast. R. Ngumoha
6'
35'
E. Fernandez⚽
49'
63'
R. James
/
Andrey Santos
R. Ngumoha
/ A. Isak
67'
67'
J. Hato
71'
C. McFarlane
73'
E. Fernandez
I. Konate
/ J. Gomez
77'
C. Gakpo
/ F. Chiesa
77'
83'
M. Cucurella
J. Gomez
88'
89'
M. Caicedo
A. Mac Allister
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
66.59%
Liverpool
16.92%
X ←
16.49%
Chelsea
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
16.92%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.67
0.51
-2.16
1.17
0.47
-0.7
xG dominance was balanced (0.51 – 0.47).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G. Mamardashvili
G
6
Miloš Kerkez
D
4
V. van Dijk
D
V. van Dijk
D
5
Ibrahima Konaté
77'
D
17
C. Jones
D
10
Alexis Mac Allister
M
38
R. Gravenberch
1 ⚽
M
73
R. Ngumoha
1 👟
67'
M
8
D. Szoboszlai
M
D. Szoboszlai
M
30
J. Frimpong
M
18
C. Gakpo
77'
F
C. Gakpo
77'
F
Bench
9
A. Isak
23'
F
26
A. Robertson
D
14
F. Chiesa
13'
F
2
J. Gomez
13'
D
12
F. Jorgensen
G
21
J. Hato
D
6
D
29
Wesley Fofana
D
27
Malo Gusto
D
25
M. Caicedo
M
M. Caicedo
M
17
Andrey Santos
63'
M
3
Marc Cucurella
M
8
E. Fernández
1 ⚽
M
E. Fernández
1 ⚽
M
10
C. Palmer
M
C. Palmer
M
20
João Pedro
F
João Pedro
F
Bench
9
L. Delap
F
24
R. James
27'
D
45
R. Lavia
M
4
T. Adarabioyo
D
Best on the pitch
R. Gravenberch
M · Liverpool
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 44 pass
M. Caicedo
M · Chelsea
7.50
· 61 pass
E. Fernández
M · Chelsea
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 47 pass
C. Jones
D · Liverpool
7.20
· 75 pass
R. Ngumoha
M · Liverpool
7.20
1 👟
· 13 pass
R. James
D · Chelsea
7.00
· 29 pass
Liverpool — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Mamardashvili | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Miloš Kerkez | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — |
| V. van Dijk | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 82 | 74% | — | — | — |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 56 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Jones | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 75 | 69% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Gravenberch | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 44 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Ngumoha | M | 67 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D. Szoboszlai | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| J. Frimpong | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Gakpo | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Isak | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Chiesa | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| J. Gomez | D | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
Chelsea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Jorgensen | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. Hato | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 42% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 73 | 65% | 1 | — | — | |
| Wesley Fofana | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Malo Gusto | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Caicedo | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 61 | 54% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Andrey Santos | M | 63 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Fernández | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 47 | 44% | — | 1 | — |
| C. Palmer | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| João Pedro | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| R. James | D | 27 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Liverpool vs Chelsea?
The final score was Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea.
What did the model predict before Liverpool vs Chelsea?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Liverpool win, 16% to a draw, and 16% to an Chelsea win.