✗Model wrong — prediction Liverpool, result Draw
R. Gravenberch
(ast. R. Ngumoha)
6'
35'
E. Fernandez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Liverpool a 66% win probability (draw 16%, Chelsea 16%). The final result was Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea. In 1 previous meetings, Liverpool have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Chelsea.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
3
0.51
Actual xG
0.47
2
Saves
2
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
2
10
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽R. Gravenberch
· ast. R. Ngumoha
6'
35'
E. Fernandez⚽
49'
63'
R. James
/
Andrey Santos
R. Ngumoha
/ A. Isak
67'
67'
J. Hato
71'
C. McFarlane
73'
E. Fernandez
I. Konate
/ J. Gomez
77'
C. Gakpo
/ F. Chiesa
77'
83'
M. Cucurella
J. Gomez
88'
89'
M. Caicedo
A. Mac Allister
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
66.59%
Liverpool
16.92%
X ←
16.49%
Chelsea
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
16.92%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.67
0.51
-2.16
1.17
0.47
-0.7
xG dominance was balanced (0.51 – 0.47).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
G
6
Miloš Kerkez
D
Miloš Kerkez
D
4
V. van Dijk
D
V. van Dijk
D
5
Ibrahima Konaté
77'
D
Ibrahima Konaté
77'
D
17
C. Jones
D
C. Jones
D
10
A. Mac Allister
M
A. Mac Allister
M
38
R. Gravenberch
1 ⚽
M
R. Gravenberch
1 ⚽
M
73
Rio Ngumoha
1 👟
67'
M
Rio Ngumoha
1 👟
67'
M
8
D. Szoboszlai
M
D. Szoboszlai
M
30
Jeremie Frimpong
M
Jeremie Frimpong
M
18
C. Gakpo
77'
F
C. Gakpo
77'
F
Bench
9
A. Isak
23'
F
A. Isak
23'
F
26
Andy Robertson
D
Andy Robertson
D
14
F. Chiesa
13'
F
F. Chiesa
13'
F
2
Joe Gomez
13'
D
Joe Gomez
13'
D
12
Filip Jørgensen
G
Filip Jørgensen
G
21
Jorrel Hato
D
Jorrel Hato
D
6
D
29
Wesley Fofana
D
Wesley Fofana
D
27
Malo Gusto
D
Malo Gusto
D
25
M. Caicedo
M
M. Caicedo
M
17
Andrey Santos
63'
M
Andrey Santos
63'
M
3
Marc Cucurella
M
Marc Cucurella
M
8
E. Fernández
1 ⚽
M
E. Fernández
1 ⚽
M
10
C. Palmer
M
C. Palmer
M
20
João Pedro
F
João Pedro
F
Bench
9
L. Delap
F
L. Delap
F
24
Reece James
27'
D
Reece James
27'
D
45
R. Lavia
M
4
Tosin Adarabioyo
D
Tosin Adarabioyo
D
Best on the pitch
R. Gravenberch
M · Liverpool
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 44 pass
M. Caicedo
M · Chelsea
7.50
· 61 pass
E. Fernández
M · Chelsea
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 47 pass
C. Jones
D · Liverpool
7.20
· 75 pass
Rio Ngumoha
M · Liverpool
7.20
1 👟
· 13 pass
Reece James
D · Chelsea
7.00
· 29 pass
Liverpool — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Mamardashvili | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Miloš Kerkez | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — |
| V. van Dijk | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 82 | 74% | — | — | — |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 56 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Jones | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 75 | 69% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Mac Allister | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Gravenberch | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 44 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Rio Ngumoha | M | 67 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D. Szoboszlai | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Jeremie Frimpong | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Gakpo | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Isak | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Chiesa | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Joe Gomez | D | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
Chelsea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Jørgensen | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jorrel Hato | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 42% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 73 | 65% | 1 | — | — | |
| Wesley Fofana | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Malo Gusto | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Caicedo | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 61 | 54% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Andrey Santos | M | 63 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Fernández | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 47 | 44% | — | 1 | — |
| C. Palmer | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| João Pedro | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Reece James | D | 27 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Liverpool vs Chelsea?
The final score was Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea.
What did the model predict before Liverpool vs Chelsea?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Liverpool win, 16% to a draw, and 16% to an Chelsea win.