Scottish Premiership
· Relegation Group - 38
May 17, 2026 15:00
S. May
(ast. B. McKay)
19'
24'
(ast. D. Thompson)
J. Hugill
34'
(ast. G. Kiltie)
N. Clescenco
53'
(ast. D. Thompson)
F. Curtis
58'
(ast. R. Deas)
J. Hugill
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kilmarnock a 45% win probability (draw 23%, Livingston 30%). The final result was Livingston 1–4 Kilmarnock. In 3 previous meetings, Livingston have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Kilmarnock.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
8
1
Shots on target
4
0.35
Actual xG
1.94
0
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
1
13
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽S. May
· ast. B. McKay
19'
24'
ast. D. Thompson ·
J. Hugill⚽
E. Danso
31'
34'
ast. G. Kiltie ·
N. Clescenco⚽
38'
D. Thompson
46'
B. Lyons
/
M. Schjonning-Larsen
53'
ast. D. Thompson ·
F. Curtis⚽
R. Muirhead
/ J. Nouble
56'
E. Danso
/ A. Denholm
56'
B. McKay
/ J. Zimmerman
56'
58'
ast. R. Deas ·
J. Hugill⚽
62'
J. Thomson
/
A. Tshibola
62'
E. Schilte-Brown
/
G. Stanger
66'
D. Watson
/
N. Clescenco
L. Smith
/ S. Culbert
66'
70'
B. Lyons
84'
E. Bowie
/
D. Thompson
M. Tait
/ B. Fati
85'
Pre-match prediction
30.96%
Livingston
23.36%
X
45.68%
Kilmarnock ←
we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock)
45.68%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.30
0.35
-0.95
1.73
1.94
+0.21
Kilmarnock dominated by xG (1.94 vs 0.35).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
28
J. Prior
86'
G
26
Cristian Montaño
86'
D
Cristian Montaño
86'
D
27
Danny Wilson
86'
D
Danny Wilson
86'
D
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
86'
D
2
Cammy Kerr
86'
D
Cammy Kerr
86'
D
25
M. Tait
85'
M
M. Tait
85'
M
20
E. Danso
56'
M
10
Barrie McKay
1 👟
56'
M
Barrie McKay
1 👟
56'
M
17
S. May
1 ⚽
86'
M
15
L. Smith
66'
M
L. Smith
66'
M
9
R. Muirhead
56'
F
Bench
6
Aidan Denholm
30'
M
Aidan Denholm
30'
M
22
A. Shinnie
F
21
A. Tamm
F
A. Tamm
F
3
Babacar Fati
1'
D
Babacar Fati
1'
D
14
J. Hamilton
G
7
Jon Nouble
30'
F
Jon Nouble
30'
F
29
Joshua Zimmerman
30'
F
Joshua Zimmerman
30'
F
37
Scott Arfield
M
Scott Arfield
M
36
S. Culbert
20'
F
1
M. Stryjek
86'
G
M. Stryjek
86'
G
3
Dominic Thompson
2 👟
84'
D
Dominic Thompson
2 👟
84'
D
6
R. Deas
1 👟
86'
D
R. Deas
1 👟
86'
D
14
G. Stanger
62'
D
G. Stanger
62'
D
21
M. Schjønning-Larsen
45'
D
M. Schjønning-Larsen
45'
D
18
T. Lowery
86'
M
T. Lowery
86'
M
36
A. Tshibola
62'
M
A. Tshibola
62'
M
52
Findlay Curtis
1 ⚽
86'
M
Findlay Curtis
1 ⚽
86'
M
20
N. Cleșcenco
1 ⚽
66'
M
N. Cleșcenco
1 ⚽
66'
M
11
G. Kiltie
1 👟
86'
M
G. Kiltie
1 👟
86'
M
44
J. Hugill
2 ⚽
86'
F
J. Hugill
2 ⚽
86'
F
Bench
19
B. Anderson
F
8
B. Lyons
41'
M
B. Lyons
41'
M
12
D. Watson
20'
M
D. Watson
20'
M
39
E. Bowie
2'
D
E. Bowie
2'
D
25
E. Brown
24'
D
22
J. Thomson
24'
M
30
Kieran Wright
G
Kieran Wright
G
16
Kyle Magennis
M
Kyle Magennis
M
7
R. McKenzie
M
R. McKenzie
M
Best on the pitch
J. Hugill
F · Kilmarnock
8.30
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 8 pass
S. May
M · Livingston
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 55 pass
N. Cleșcenco
M · Kilmarnock
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 24 pass
T. Lowery
M · Kilmarnock
7.30
· 63 pass
Findlay Curtis
M · Kilmarnock
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
Dominic Thompson
D · Kilmarnock
7.20
2 👟
· 47 pass
Livingston — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Prior | G | 86 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Montaño | D | 86 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Danny Wilson | D | 86 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 51 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Brooklyn Kabongolo | D | 86 | 5.30 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 65% | — | — | — |
| Cammy Kerr | D | 86 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Tait | M | 85 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 53% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Danso | M | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Barrie McKay | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| S. May | M | 86 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Smith | M | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Muirhead | F | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Aidan Denholm | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Babacar Fati | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jon Nouble | F | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Joshua Zimmerman | F | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Culbert | F | 20 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Kilmarnock — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stryjek | G | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Dominic Thompson | D | 84 | 7.20 | — | 2 | — | 47 | 42% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Deas | D | 86 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 41 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Stanger | D | 62 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 54 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Lowery | M | 86 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 63 | 58% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Tshibola | M | 62 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Findlay Curtis | M | 86 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Cleșcenco | M | 66 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| G. Kiltie | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 35 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Hugill | F | 86 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 2 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| B. Lyons | M | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Watson | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Bowie | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| E. Brown | D | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Thomson | M | 24 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Livingston vs Kilmarnock?
The final score was Livingston 1–4 Kilmarnock.
What did the model predict before Livingston vs Kilmarnock?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Livingston win, 23% to a draw, and 45% to an Kilmarnock win.