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Scottish Premiership · Relegation Group - 38 May 17, 2026 15:00
Livingston
1 – 4
Final score
Kilmarnock
#5 · 0 pts
S. May (ast. B. McKay) 19'
24' (ast. D. Thompson) J. Hugill
34' (ast. G. Kiltie) N. Clescenco
53' (ast. D. Thompson) F. Curtis
58' (ast. R. Deas) J. Hugill
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kilmarnock a 45% win probability (draw 23%, Livingston 30%). The final result was Livingston 1–4 Kilmarnock. In 3 previous meetings, Livingston have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Kilmarnock.

Match statistics
4
Total shots
8
1
Shots on target
4
0.35
Actual xG
1.94
0
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
1
13
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽S. May · ast. B. McKay
19'
24'
ast. D. Thompson · J. Hugill⚽
E. Danso
31'
34'
ast. G. Kiltie · N. Clescenco⚽
38'
D. Thompson
46'
B. Lyons / M. Schjonning-Larsen ↕
53'
ast. D. Thompson · F. Curtis⚽
↕ R. Muirhead / J. Nouble
56'
↕ E. Danso / A. Denholm
56'
↕ B. McKay / J. Zimmerman
56'
58'
ast. R. Deas · J. Hugill⚽
62'
J. Thomson / A. Tshibola ↕
62'
E. Schilte-Brown / G. Stanger ↕
66'
D. Watson / N. Clescenco ↕
↕ L. Smith / S. Culbert
66'
70'
B. Lyons
84'
E. Bowie / D. Thompson ↕
↕ M. Tait / B. Fati
85'
Pre-match prediction
30.96%
Livingston
23.36%
X
45.68%
Kilmarnock ←
we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock) 45.68% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Livingston
1.30
0.35
-0.95
Kilmarnock
1.73
1.94
+0.21
Kilmarnock dominated by xG (1.94 vs 0.35). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 0 0
2 Falkirk Falkirk 0 0
3 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 0 0
4 Hibernian Hibernian 0 0
5 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0 0
6 Motherwell Motherwell 0 0
7 ST Mirren ST Mirren 0 0
8 Dundee Dundee 0 0
9 ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 0 0
10 Celtic Celtic 0 0
11 Rangers Rangers 0 0
12 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0 0
Lineups
Livingston Livingston 4-2-3-1
28 Jérôme Prior Jérôme Prior 86' G 5.50
26 Cristian Montaño Cristian Montaño 86' D 6.20
27 Danny Wilson Danny Wilson 86' D 5.90
23 Brooklyn Kabongolo Brooklyn Kabongolo 86' D 5.30
2 Cammy Kerr Cammy Kerr 86' D 6.20
25 M. Tait M. Tait 85' M 6.30
20 Emmanuel Danso Emmanuel Danso 56' M 6.30
10 Barrie McKay Barrie McKay 1 👟 56' M 6.90
17 Stevie May Stevie May 1 ⚽ 86' M 7.90
15 Lewis Smith Lewis Smith 66' M 6.50
9 Robbie Muirhead Robbie Muirhead 56' F 6.90
Bench
6 Aidan Denholm Aidan Denholm 30' M 6.60
22 Andrew Shinnie Andrew Shinnie F
21 A. Tamm A. Tamm F
3 Babacar Fati Babacar Fati 1' D
14 Jack Hamilton Jack Hamilton G
7 Jon Nouble Jon Nouble 30' F 6.70
29 Joshua Zimmerman Joshua Zimmerman 30' F 6.90
37 Scott Arfield Scott Arfield M
36 S. Culbert S. Culbert 20' F 6.20
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-3-2-1
1 Max Stryjek Max Stryjek 86' G 6.60
3 Dominic Thompson Dominic Thompson 2 👟 84' D 7.20
6 R. Deas R. Deas 1 👟 86' D 6.90
14 George Stanger George Stanger 62' D 7.00
21 Michael Schjønning-Larsen Michael Schjønning-Larsen 45' D 6.30
18 Tom Lowery Tom Lowery 86' M 7.30
36 Aaron Tshibola Aaron Tshibola 62' M 6.60
52 Findlay Curtis Findlay Curtis 1 ⚽ 86' M 7.20
20
Nicky Cleșcenco 1 ⚽ 66' M 7.50
11 G. Kiltie G. Kiltie 1 👟 86' M 6.90
44 J. Hugill J. Hugill 2 ⚽ 86' F 8.30
Bench
8 B. Lyons B. Lyons 41' M 6.90
19 Bruce Anderson Bruce Anderson F
12 D. Watson D. Watson 20' M 6.70
25 Ethan Brown Ethan Brown 24' D 6.30
39 Euan Bowie Euan Bowie 2' D
22 Jack Thomson Jack Thomson 24' M 7.00
30 Kieran Wright Kieran Wright G
16 Kyle Magennis Kyle Magennis M
7 Rory McKenzie Rory McKenzie M
Best on the pitch
J. Hugill
J. Hugill
F · Kilmarnock
8.30
2 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
Stevie May
Stevie May
M · Livingston
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 55 pass
Nicky Cleșcenco
M · Kilmarnock
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery
M · Kilmarnock
7.30
· 63 pass
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis
M · Kilmarnock
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 39 pass
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson
D · Kilmarnock
7.20
2 👟
· 47 pass
Livingston Livingston — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Jérôme Prior G 86 5.50 — — — 31 31% — — —
Cristian Montaño D 86 6.20 — — — 53 45% — — —
Danny Wilson D 86 5.90 — — — 51 48% — — —
Brooklyn Kabongolo D 86 5.30 — — 1 69 65% — — —
Cammy Kerr D 86 6.20 — — — 47 39% 2 — —
M. Tait M 85 6.30 — — — 56 53% 3 — —
Emmanuel Danso M 56 6.30 — — — 32 29% 3 1 —
Barrie McKay M 56 6.90 — 1 — 33 28% 2 — —
Stevie May M 86 7.90 1 — 1 55 46% 1 — —
Lewis Smith M 66 6.50 — — — 20 15% 1 — —
Robbie Muirhead F 56 6.90 — — 1 20 14% — — —
Aidan Denholm M 30 6.60 — — — 20 18% — — —
Babacar Fati D 1 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Jon Nouble F 30 6.70 — — — 5 5% — — —
Joshua Zimmerman F 30 6.90 — — — 10 8% 1 — —
S. Culbert F 20 6.20 — — 1 11 8% — — —
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Max Stryjek G 86 6.60 — — — 24 21% — — —
Dominic Thompson D 84 7.20 — 2 — 47 42% 1 1 —
R. Deas D 86 6.90 — 1 — 41 39% 2 — —
George Stanger D 62 7.00 — — — 54 51% 1 — —
Michael Schjønning-Larsen D 45 6.30 — — 1 20 19% 1 — —
Tom Lowery M 86 7.30 — — — 63 58% 2 — —
Aaron Tshibola M 62 6.60 — — 1 57 52% 2 — —
Findlay Curtis M 86 7.20 1 — 2 39 36% 2 — —
Nicky Cleșcenco M 66 7.50 1 — 1 24 20% 3 — —
G. Kiltie M 86 6.90 — 1 1 35 30% 1 — —
J. Hugill F 86 8.30 2 — 2 8 6% — — —
B. Lyons M 41 6.90 — — — 28 27% — 1 —
D. Watson M 20 6.70 — — — 7 6% 1 — —
Ethan Brown D 24 6.30 — — — 9 7% — — —
Euan Bowie D 2 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Jack Thomson M 24 7.00 — — — 27 26% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Livingston vs Kilmarnock?
The final score was Livingston 1–4 Kilmarnock.
What did the model predict before Livingston vs Kilmarnock?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Livingston win, 23% to a draw, and 45% to an Kilmarnock win.