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← Primera RFEF - Group 1

Lugo - Racing Ferrol

Primera RFEF - Group 1 September 26, 2026 16:30 Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
Lugo
#3 · 10 pts
vs
Racing Ferrol
#8 · 7 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 26.5°C 💨 3 km/h · Lugo
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.4%
Win
Lugo
31.9%
Draw
29.69%
Win
Racing Ferrol
1.25
Expected xG
0.66

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.21%)
1X2 Result
1 38%
X 32%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 62%
12 68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 49%
✓ 52.9% hit rate (17 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Lugo a 38% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Racing Ferrol. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lugo and 0.7 for Racing Ferrol (total 1.9), with a 71% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.21% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Lugo have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Racing Ferrol.

Season Stats

Lugo
6W 4D 5L
Racing Ferrol
3W 7D 5L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.9
1.3
Conceded
1.3
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
53%
47%
O 2.5
33%
40%
BTTS
47%
40%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera RFEF - Group 1. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
40%
BTTS
Lugo
3W 3D 4L · at home
Racing Ferrol
2W 3D 5L · away
0.6
gls/g
0.9
1.1
Conceded
1.3
30%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
50%
50%
O 1.5
60%
20%
O 2.5
30%
20%
O 3.5
20%
20%
BTTS
60%
50%
Clean Sht
20%
50%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Lugo Racing Ferrol →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.9% 9.8% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% —
1 18.6% 12.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% —
2 11.6% 7.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 4.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% — —
4 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Lugo Lugo
W Zamora 1–2
W CD Coria 1–0
D Ponferradina 0–0
W Unionistas de Salamanca 1–3
D Arenteiro 0–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol
W Barakaldo 1–0
W Real Unión 3–2
L Extremadura 1924 1–0
D Arenas Getxo 1–1
L Unionistas de Salamanca 3–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Lugo Lugo
Attack
23
Defence
59
Form
42
Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol
Attack
18
Defence
55
Form
33
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Lugo
1
Draw
0
Racing Ferrol
7 Feb 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1 1–1
21 Sep 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1 2–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 UD Logroñés UD Logroñés 4 10
2 Cacereño Cacereño 4 10
3 Lugo Lugo 4 10
4 Athletic Club II Athletic Club II 4 8
5 Real Unión Real Unión 4 7
6 Mirandes Mirandes 4 7
7 Pontevedra Pontevedra 4 7
8 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 4 7
9 Ponferradina Ponferradina 4 7
10 Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa 4 7
11 Deportivo La Coruña II Deportivo La Coruña II 4 5
12 Real Avilés Real Avilés 4 4
13 CD Coria CD Coria 4 4
14 Zamora Zamora 4 4
15 Barakaldo Barakaldo 4 4
16 Mérida AD Mérida AD 4 3
17 Extremadura 1924 Extremadura 1924 4 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca Unionistas de Salamanca 4 3
19 Arenas Getxo Arenas Getxo 4 1
20 UD Ourense UD Ourense 4 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
The model gives Lugo a 38% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 29% for an Racing Ferrol win.
How many goals are expected in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
Expected goals: Lugo 1.2, Racing Ferrol 0.7 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 71%.
What is the most likely score in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.21%.