✓Model correct — prediction Luton
Callum Marshall
44'
(pen.)
Jamie Donley
(ast. Jake Richards)
51'
Jamie Donley
72'
84'
(ast. Harry Clifton)
Bayley McCann
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luton a 53% win probability (draw 25%, Doncaster 20%). The final result was Luton 3–1 Doncaster. In 2 previous meetings, Luton have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Doncaster.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
12
7
Shots on target
2
2.30
Actual xG
1.08
1
Saves
4
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
5
17
Tackles
8
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
11'
Jamie Sterry
Jamie Donley
30'
Nahki Wells
/ Tudor Mendel-Idowu
41'
⚽Callum Marshall
(pen.)
44'
45'
Brandon Hanlan
/
Hakeeb Adelakun
⚽Jamie Donley
· ast. Jake Richards
51'
60'
Owen Bailey
68'
George Broadbent
/
Robbie Gotts
69'
Jordan Thomas
/
Leon Ayinde
69'
Bayley McCann
/
Jamie Sterry
Kasey Palmer
/ E. Lawrence
71'
Liam Walsh
/ Dan Gore
72'
⚽Jamie Donley
72'
73'
Harry Clifton
/
Will Keane
84'
ast. Harry Clifton ·
Bayley McCann⚽
90'+3
Jordan Thomas
Pre-match prediction
53.73%
Luton ←
25.72%
X
20.55%
Doncaster
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Luton)
53.73%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.54
2.30
+0.75
0.68
1.08
+0.4
Luton dominated by xG (2.30 vs 1.08).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Shea
G
3
K. Naismith
D
K. Naismith
D
6
G. Johnston
D
5
M. Andersen
D
25
I. Jones
D
I. Jones
D
8
L. Walsh
72'
M
45
K. Palmer
71'
M
10
J. Donley
2 ⚽
M
J. Donley
2 ⚽
M
9
C. Marshall
1 ⚽
M
7
J. Richards
1 👟
M
21
N. Wells
41'
F
Bench
16
Daniel Gore
18'
M
11
Emilio Lawrence
19'
F
22
H. Fox
M
12
J. Johnson
D
24
Joshua Keeley
G
17
T. Mendel-Idowu
49'
F
15
T. Mengi
D
T. Mengi
D
1
Tommy Simkin
G
23
J. Senior
D
12
N. Byrne
D
27
S. Grehan
D
2
J. Sterry
69'
D
22
R. Gotts
68'
M
4
O. Bailey
M
47
H. Adelakun
45'
M
21
I. Hutchinson
M
11
L. Ayinde
69'
M
18
W. Keane
73'
F
W. Keane
73'
F
Bench
9
B. Hanlan
45'
F
25
B. McCann
1 ⚽
21'
D
8
G. Broadbent
22'
M
15
H. Clifton
1 👟
17'
M
42
J. Clarke
G
6
J. McGrath
D
19
J. Thomas
21'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Donley
M · Luton
9.17
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 48 pass
J. Richards
M · Luton
7.49
1 👟
1 shots
· 20 pass
C. Marshall
M · Luton
7.38
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 21 pass
I. Jones
D · Luton
7.26
· 31 pass
T. Mendel-Idowu
F · Luton
7.20
2 shots
· 12 pass
K. Naismith
D · Luton
7.09
1 shots
· 57 pass
Luton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Shea | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| K. Naismith | D | 90 | 7.09 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Johnston | D | 90 | 6.64 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Andersen | D | 90 | 6.78 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 42% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Jones | D | 90 | 7.26 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 27% | 5 | — | — |
| L. Walsh | M | 72 | 6.65 | — | — | 0 | 56 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Palmer | M | 71 | 6.27 | — | — | 4 | 33 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Donley | M | 90 | 9.17 | 2 | — | 3 | 48 | 40% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Marshall | M | 90 | 7.38 | 1 | — | 6 | 21 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Richards | M | 90 | 7.49 | — | 1 | 1 | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Wells | F | 41 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| Daniel Gore | M | 18 | 6.75 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Emilio Lawrence | F | 19 | 6.68 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Mendel-Idowu | F | 49 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Doncaster — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Simkin | G | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 0 | 45 | 30% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Senior | D | 90 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 32% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Byrne | D | 90 | 5.62 | — | — | 2 | 52 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Grehan | D | 90 | 6.14 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 44% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Sterry | D | 69 | 5.67 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 21% | 0 | 1 | — |
| R. Gotts | M | 68 | 5.87 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| O. Bailey | M | 90 | 5.37 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 19% | 2 | 1 | — |
| H. Adelakun | M | 45 | 5.49 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Hutchinson | M | 90 | 5.80 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Ayinde | M | 69 | 5.68 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| W. Keane | F | 73 | 6.53 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Hanlan | F | 45 | 6.29 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| B. McCann | D | 21 | 6.75 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Broadbent | M | 22 | 5.90 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Clifton | M | 17 | 6.15 | — | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Thomas | M | 21 | 6.05 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 0 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Luton vs Doncaster?
The final score was Luton 3–1 Doncaster.
What did the model predict before Luton vs Doncaster?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Luton win, 25% to a draw, and 20% to an Doncaster win.