Nahki Wells
(ast. Jordan Clark)
39'
Callum Marshall
90'+4
90'
(ast. Emil Riis Jakobsen)
Liam Cullen
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luton a 36% win probability (draw 27%, Leicester 35%). The final result was Luton 2–1 Leicester.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
11
8
Shots on target
5
1.68
Actual xG
1.09
4
Saves
6
42%
Possession
58%
9
Corners
8
10
Tackles
28
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Nahki Wells
· ast. Jordan Clark
39'
45'
Wes Burns
/
Caleb Okoli
45'
Will Smallbone
/
Louis Page
Tudor Mendel-Idowu
/ Jake Richards
64'
68'
John Lundstram
73'
Conor Chaplin
/
Samuel Charles Braybrooke
Nahki Wells
/ Callum Marshall
76'
83'
Liam Cullen
/
K. Doyle
Kasey Palmer
/ E. Lawrence
85'
85'
John Lundstram
89'
Bobby Reid
/
Warren O'Hora
90'+3
Wes Burns
⚽Callum Marshall
90'+4
90'
ast. Emil Riis Jakobsen ·
Liam Cullen⚽
Pre-match prediction
36.83%
Luton ←
27.76%
X
35.42%
Leicester
we assigned to the actual result (Luton)
36.83%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.26
1.68
+0.42
1.32
1.09
-0.23
Luton dominated by xG (1.68 vs 1.09).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
J. Shea
G
J. Shea
G
3
K. Naismith
D
K. Naismith
D
6
G. Johnston
D
G. Johnston
D
5
M. Andersen
D
M. Andersen
D
25
I. Jones
D
I. Jones
D
8
L. Walsh
M
L. Walsh
M
45
K. Palmer
85'
M
K. Palmer
85'
M
10
J. Donley
M
J. Donley
M
18
J. Clark
1 👟
M
J. Clark
1 👟
M
17
T. Mendel-Idowu
64'
M
T. Mendel-Idowu
64'
M
21
N. Wells
1 ⚽
76'
F
N. Wells
1 ⚽
76'
F
Bench
9
C. Marshall
1 ⚽
14'
F
C. Marshall
1 ⚽
14'
F
44
D. Cole
F
D. Cole
F
11
Emilio Lawrence
5'
F
Emilio Lawrence
5'
F
12
J. Johnson
D
J. Johnson
D
24
Joshua Keeley
G
Joshua Keeley
G
7
J. Richards
26'
M
J. Richards
26'
M
15
T. Mengi
D
T. Mengi
D
29
A. McCarthy
G
A. McCarthy
G
5
C. Okoli
45'
D
C. Okoli
45'
D
15
H. Souttar
D
H. Souttar
D
16
W. O'Hora
89'
D
W. O'Hora
89'
D
33
L. Thomas
M
L. Thomas
M
25
L. Page
45'
M
L. Page
45'
M
6
J. Lundstram
85'
M
J. Lundstram
85'
M
37
W. Alves
M
W. Alves
M
27
K. Doyle
83'
M
K. Doyle
83'
M
36
S. Braybrooke
73'
M
S. Braybrooke
73'
M
17
E. Riis
1 👟
F
E. Riis
1 👟
F
Bench
14
B. De Cordova-Reid
1'
F
B. De Cordova-Reid
1'
F
8
C. Chaplin
17'
F
C. Chaplin
17'
F
21
F. Ravizzoli
G
F. Ravizzoli
G
24
I. Kangasniemi
D
I. Kangasniemi
D
11
L. Cullen
1 ⚽
7'
F
L. Cullen
1 ⚽
7'
F
7
W. Burns
45'
F
W. Burns
45'
F
12
W. Smallbone
45'
M
W. Smallbone
45'
M
Best on the pitch
L. Cullen
F · Leicester
7.84
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
A. McCarthy
G · Leicester
7.69
· 25 pass
N. Wells
F · Luton
7.67
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 19 pass
J. Clark
M · Luton
7.63
1 👟
1 shots
· 34 pass
C. Marshall
F · Luton
7.46
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 1 pass
K. Naismith
D · Luton
7.38
1 shots
· 56 pass
Luton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Shea | G | 90 | 6.85 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| K. Naismith | D | 90 | 7.38 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 49% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Johnston | D | 90 | 6.61 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 31% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Andersen | D | 90 | 7.36 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Jones | D | 90 | 6.77 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Walsh | M | 90 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 62 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Palmer | M | 85 | 6.31 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Donley | M | 90 | 6.63 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Clark | M | 90 | 7.63 | — | 1 | 1 | 34 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Mendel-Idowu | M | 64 | 6.13 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Wells | F | 76 | 7.67 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| C. Marshall | F | 14 | 7.46 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| Emilio Lawrence | F | 5 | 6.53 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Richards | M | 26 | 6.66 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
Leicester — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. McCarthy | G | 90 | 7.69 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| C. Okoli | D | 45 | 6.14 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| H. Souttar | D | 90 | 6.72 | — | — | 0 | 85 | 80% | 1 | — | — |
| W. O'Hora | D | 89 | 6.91 | — | — | 1 | 83 | 75% | 5 | — | — |
| L. Thomas | M | 90 | 6.05 | — | — | 3 | 72 | 60% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Page | M | 45 | 6.29 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Lundstram | M | 85 | 5.48 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 39% | 1 | — | 1 |
| W. Alves | M | 90 | 6.29 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| K. Doyle | M | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Braybrooke | M | 73 | 6.22 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Riis | F | 90 | 6.62 | — | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| B. De Cordova-Reid | F | 1 | 6.25 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Chaplin | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Cullen | F | 7 | 7.84 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| W. Burns | F | 45 | 5.82 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Smallbone | M | 45 | 6.01 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Luton vs Leicester?
The final score was Luton 2–1 Leicester.
What did the model predict before Luton vs Leicester?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Luton win, 27% to a draw, and 35% to an Leicester win.