Luton 2–2 Notts County — pre-match prediction — League One — August 22, 2026

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League One · Regular Season - 2 August 22, 2026 13:30 Kenilworth Road, Luton

Luton

#16 · 8 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Notts County

#20 · 7 pts

N. Wells 42' (pen.)

C. Marshall (ast. K. Palmer) 68'

45'+1 C. Roberts

61' (ast. N. Tsaroulla) O. Cooper

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luton a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Notts County 34%). The final result was Luton 2–2 Notts County.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.77

Actual xG

0.77

Saves

58%

Possession

42%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

↕ J. Clark / G. Kodua

18'

31'

L. Smyth

G. Johnston

32'

39'

S. Robertson

⚽N. Wells (pen.)

42'

45'+1

C. Roberts⚽

K. Naismith

45'

K. Palmer

47'

N. Wells

56'

61'

ast. N. Tsaroulla · O. Cooper⚽

↕ N. Wells / C. Marshall

62'

↕ E. Lawrence / B. Benagr

62'

C. Grant / L. Smyth ↕

⚽C. Marshall · ast. K. Palmer

68'

72'

H. Mustapha / S. Robertson ↕

73'

I. Samuels-Smith / N. Tsaroulla ↕

73'

L. Ndlovu / C. Roberts ↕

↕ I. Jones / H. Ashby

80'

86'

M. Baker / D. Lipsiuc ↕

86'

Q. Kouhyar / O. Cooper ↕

L. Walsh

90'+3

H. Mustapha

Pre-match prediction

34.44%

Luton

31.48%

X ←

34.08%

Notts

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.48% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Luton

1.24

1.77

+0.53

Notts

2.75

0.77

-1.98

Luton dominated by xG (1.77 vs 0.77). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bradford	7	15
2	Sheffield Wednesday	7	14
3	Stockport County	8	13
4	Plymouth	8	13
5	Cambridge United	8	13
6	Huddersfield	7	12
7	Burton Albion	8	12
8	AFC Wimbledon	8	12
9	Reading	7	11
10	Oxford United	6	11
11	Leyton Orient	7	10
12	Wycombe	8	10
13	Stevenage	7	9
14	Leicester	7	9
15	Blackpool	7	8
16	Luton	7	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	8
18	Barnsley	7	8
19	Bromley	7	8
20	Notts County	7	7
21	Doncaster	7	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	6
23	Peterborough	8	5
24	Wigan	7	4

Lineups

Luton 4-1-4-1

Joshua Keeley 81' G 6.30

K. Naismith 81' D 7.20

G. Johnston 81' D 7.20

M. Andersen 81' D 6.30

I. Jones 80' D 6.00

L. Walsh 81' M 7.20

Emilio Lawrence 62' M 7.30

K. Palmer 1 👟 81' M 6.90

J. Clark 18' M 6.50

J. Richards 81' M 6.30

N. Wells 1 ⚽ 62' F 7.00

Bench

B. Benagr 19' D 6.70

C. Marshall 1 ⚽ 19' F 7.30

G. Kodua 63' F 6.30

H. Ashby 1' D

H. Odoffin D

J. Johnson D

J. Shea G

Notts County 5-3-2

J. Belshaw 81' G 6.20

D. Lipsiuc 81' D 5.90

J. Bedeau 81' D 6.60

L. Ness 81' D 6.30

J. Gibbons 81' D 6.50

N. Tsaroulla 1 👟 73' D 6.30

J. Evans 81' M 6.30

Scott Robertson 72' M 6.50

O. Cooper 1 ⚽ 81' M 7.90

C. Roberts 1 ⚽ 73' F 8.00

L. Smyth 62' F 6.30

Bench

C. Grant 19' M 6.20

H. Griffiths G

H. Mustapha 9' M 6.30

I. Samuels-Smith 8' D 6.70

Lee Ndlovu 8' F 6.30

Maziar Kouhyar M

M. Baker D

Best on the pitch

C. Roberts

F · Notts

8.00

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

O. Cooper

M · Notts

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

Emilio Lawrence

M · Luton

7.30

· 7 pass

C. Marshall

F · Luton

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 7 pass

K. Naismith

D · Luton

7.20

1 shots · 69 pass

G. Johnston

D · Luton

7.20

· 56 pass

Luton — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Joshua Keeley	G	81	6.30	—	—	—	21	14%	—	—	—
K. Naismith	D	81	7.20	—	—	1	69	55%	1	1	—
G. Johnston	D	81	7.20	—	—	—	56	55%	1	1	—
M. Andersen	D	81	6.30	—	—	—	57	50%	—	—	—
I. Jones	D	80	6.00	—	—	—	28	21%	—	—	—
L. Walsh	M	81	7.20	—	—	—	60	49%	1	—	—
Emilio Lawrence	M	62	7.30	—	—	—	7	6%	1	—	—
K. Palmer	M	81	6.90	—	1	2	26	19%	—	1	—
J. Clark	M	18	6.50	—	—	1	5	3%	—	—	—
J. Richards	M	81	6.30	—	—	1	13	8%	3	—	—
N. Wells	F	62	7.00	1	—	1	11	8%	—	1	—
B. Benagr	D	19	6.70	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
C. Marshall	F	19	7.30	1	—	1	7	5%	—	—	—
G. Kodua	F	63	6.30	—	—	2	14	12%	1	—	—
H. Ashby	D	1	—	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—

Notts County — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Belshaw	G	81	6.20	—	—	—	28	10%	—	—	—
D. Lipsiuc	D	81	5.90	—	—	—	11	6%	2	—	—
J. Bedeau	D	81	6.60	—	—	—	29	23%	1	—	—
L. Ness	D	81	6.30	—	—	—	41	32%	2	—	—
J. Gibbons	D	81	6.50	—	—	—	36	30%	1	—	—
N. Tsaroulla	D	73	6.30	—	1	—	24	17%	—	—	—
J. Evans	M	81	6.30	—	—	—	16	13%	2	—	—
Scott Robertson	M	72	6.50	—	—	1	29	26%	1	1	—
O. Cooper	M	81	7.90	1	—	1	12	10%	2	—	—
C. Roberts	F	73	8.00	1	—	1	20	15%	1	—	—
L. Smyth	F	62	6.30	—	—	1	10	7%	3	1	—
C. Grant	M	19	6.20	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
H. Mustapha	M	9	6.30	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
I. Samuels-Smith	D	8	6.70	—	—	—	7	2%	—	—	—
Lee Ndlovu	F	8	6.30	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Luton vs Notts County?

The final score was Luton 2–2 Notts County.

What did the model predict before Luton vs Notts County?

The model assigned 34% probability to a Luton win, 31% to a draw, and 34% to an Notts County win.