Luxembourg - Bulgaria
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.45%
Win
Luxembourg
19.69%
Draw
25.86%
Win
Bulgaria
2.34
1.56
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(8.69%)
1X2 Result
1
54%
X
20%
2
26%
Double Chance
1X
74%
X2
46%
12
80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
83%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Luxembourg a 54% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Bulgaria. Expected goals are 2.3 for Luxembourg and 1.6 for Bulgaria (total 3.9), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.69% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Luxembourg have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Bulgaria.
Season Stats
2W
3D
3L
2W
3D
3L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.6
0.9
Conceded
1.2
2.6
Shots OT
3.5
3.4
Corners
2.9
59%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
50%
25%
O 2.5
38%
25%
BTTS
38%
38%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
1W
1D
2L
· at home
1W
1D
2L
· away
1.2
gls/g
0.5
1.0
Conceded
1.8
25%
Win %
25%
50%
Win or Draw
50%
50%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
50%
25%
O 3.5
25%
25%
BTTS
25%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
50%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Luxembourg
Bulgaria →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Playing profile
Luxembourg
Attack
25
Defence
75
Form
56
Bulgaria
Attack
35
Defence
60
Form
31
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Play-offs C/D
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luxembourg
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Latvia
|
2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Gibraltar
|
2 | 0 |
| 4 |
Malta
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Play-offs C/D
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #1 |
| → Luxembourg | #1 | #1 |
| → Draw | #1 | #1 |
| → Bulgaria | #1 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
The model gives Luxembourg a 54% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 25% for an Bulgaria win.
How many goals are expected in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Expected goals: Luxembourg 2.3, Bulgaria 1.6 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.69%.