Luxembourg - Iceland
⚡ Pre-match analysis
78.97%
Win
Luxembourg
12.57%
Draw
8.46%
Win
Iceland
2.78
0.67
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Luxembourg
78.97%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–0
(12.37%)
1X2 Result
1
79%
X
13%
2
8%
Double Chance
1X
92%
X2
21%
12
87%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
81%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Luxembourg a 78% win probability, against 12% for a draw and 8% for Iceland. Expected goals are 2.8 for Luxembourg and 0.7 for Iceland (total 3.4), with a 89% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 12.37% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Luxembourg have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Iceland.
Season Stats
2W
3D
3L
2W
1D
5L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.5
0.9
Conceded
2.2
2.6
Shots OT
4.3
3.4
Corners
3.8
59%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
75%
25%
BTTS
75%
38%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
38%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
1W
1D
2L
· at home
1W
0D
3L
· away
1.2
gls/g
1.2
1.0
Conceded
2.2
25%
Win %
25%
50%
Win or Draw
25%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
75%
25%
O 3.5
50%
25%
BTTS
75%
25%
Clean Sht
25%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Luxembourg
Iceland →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 1 | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 12.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 11.4% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 7.9% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Luxembourg
Attack
25
Defence
75
Form
56
Iceland
Attack
18
Defence
44
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Play-offs C/D
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luxembourg
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Latvia
|
2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Gibraltar
|
2 | 0 |
| 4 |
Malta
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Play-offs C/D
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #1 |
| → Luxembourg | #1 | #1 |
| → Draw | #1 | #1 |
| → Iceland | #1 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Luxembourg vs Iceland?
The model gives Luxembourg a 78% win probability, 12% for a draw, and 8% for an Iceland win.
How many goals are expected in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Expected goals: Luxembourg 2.8, Iceland 0.7 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 89%.
What is the most likely score in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.37%.