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← UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg - Iceland

#1 · 6 pts
vs
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
78.97%
Win
Luxembourg
12.57%
Draw
8.46%
Win
Iceland
2.78
Expected xG
0.67
Most likely outcome
Luxembourg
78.97%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–0 (12.37%)
1X2 Result
1 79%
X 13%
2 8%
Double Chance
1X 92%
X2 21%
12 87%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 81%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Luxembourg a 78% win probability, against 12% for a draw and 8% for Iceland. Expected goals are 2.8 for Luxembourg and 0.7 for Iceland (total 3.4), with a 89% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 12.37% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Luxembourg have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Iceland.

Season Stats

Luxembourg
2W 3D 3L
Iceland
2W 1D 5L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.5
0.9
Conceded
2.2
2.6
Shots OT
4.3
3.4
Corners
3.8
59%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
75%
25%
BTTS
75%
38%
Clean Sht
25%
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
38%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Luxembourg
1W 1D 2L · at home
Iceland
1W 0D 3L · away
1.2
gls/g
1.2
1.0
Conceded
2.2
25%
Win %
25%
50%
Win or Draw
25%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
75%
25%
O 3.5
50%
25%
BTTS
75%
25%
Clean Sht
25%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Luxembourg Iceland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
1 8.8% 5.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
2 12.3% 8.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1%
3 11.4% 7.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
4 7.9% 5.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
5 4.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2%

Recent form

W Malta 3–0
W Malta 0–2
D Northern Ireland 2–2
L Bulgaria 0–1
D Belarus 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
L Kosovo 1–3
L Kosovo 2–1
L Wales 4–1
W Montenegro 0–2
L Türkiye 2–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Luxembourg Luxembourg
Attack
25
Defence
75
Form
56
Iceland Iceland
Attack
18
Defence
44
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Play-offs C/D

# Team G Pts
1 Luxembourg Luxembourg 2 6
2 Latvia Latvia 2 6
3 Gibraltar Gibraltar 2 0
4 Malta Malta 2 0

What's at stake · Play-offs C/D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Luxembourg Iceland
Current #1 #1
Luxembourg #1 #1
Draw #1 #1
Iceland #1 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Luxembourg vs Iceland?
The model gives Luxembourg a 78% win probability, 12% for a draw, and 8% for an Iceland win.
How many goals are expected in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Expected goals: Luxembourg 2.8, Iceland 0.7 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 89%.
What is the most likely score in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.37%.