AFC Champions League
· Quarter-finals
April 17, 2026 20:00
Tete Yengi
(ast. Erik)
31'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Machida Zelvia a 36% win probability (draw 35%, Al-Ittihad FC 27%). The final result was Machida Zelvia 1–0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
3
0.94
Actual xG
0.74
3
Saves
4
37%
Possession
63%
6
Corners
5
10
Tackles
6
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
22'
Mario Mitaj
⚽Tete Yengi
· ast. Erik
31'
46'
Steven Bergwijn
/
Mario Mitaj
57'
Abdulrahman Alobud
/
Roger Fernandes
Kotaro Hayashi
61'
Erik
/ Futa Tokumura
66'
Sang-Ho Na
/ Keiya Sento
66'
75'
Abdulrahman Alobud
Neta Lavi
76'
Neta Lavi
/ Hokuto Shimoda
76'
Hotaka Nakamura
/ Henry Heroki Mochizuki
76'
82'
George Ilenikhena
/
Moussa Diaby
Tete Yengi
85'
Tete Yengi
/ Shota Fujio
85'
88'
90'
Danilo Pereira
Pre-match prediction
36.76%
Machida ←
35.36%
X
27.89%
Al-Ittihad
we assigned to the actual result (Machida Zelvia)
36.76%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.86
0.94
+0.08
0.89
0.74
-0.15
xG dominance was balanced (0.94 – 0.74).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
K. Tani
G
K. Tani
G
19
Y. Nakayama
D
Y. Nakayama
D
50
D. Okamura
D
D. Okamura
D
3
G. Shōji
D
G. Shōji
D
26
K. Hayashi
M
K. Hayashi
M
31
N. Lavi
76'
M
N. Lavi
76'
M
16
H. Mae
M
H. Mae
M
88
H. Nakamura
76'
M
H. Nakamura
76'
M
10
Na Sang-Ho
66'
F
Na Sang-Ho
66'
F
27
Erik
1 👟
66'
F
Erik
1 👟
66'
F
99
T. Yengi
1 ⚽
85'
F
T. Yengi
1 ⚽
85'
F
Bench
11
A. Masuyama
M
A. Masuyama
M
34
Futa Tokumura
24'
F
Futa Tokumura
24'
F
6
H. Mochizuki
14'
D
H. Mochizuki
14'
D
18
H. Shimoda
14'
M
H. Shimoda
14'
M
5
I. Drešević
D
I. Drešević
D
49
Kanji Kuwayama
F
Kanji Kuwayama
F
8
K. Sento
24'
M
K. Sento
24'
M
9
S. Fujio
13'
F
S. Fujio
13'
F
1
P. Rajković
G
P. Rajković
G
12
Mario Mitaj
45'
D
Mario Mitaj
45'
D
15
D
3
D
13
Muhannad Al Shanqiti
D
Muhannad Al Shanqiti
D
8
Fabinho
M
Fabinho
M
2
Danilo Pereira
M
Danilo Pereira
M
78
Roger
57'
M
10
H. Aouar
M
H. Aouar
M
19
M. Diaby
82'
M
M. Diaby
82'
M
21
Y. En-Nesyri
F
Y. En-Nesyri
F
Bench
24
Abdulrahman Al Obud
33'
F
Abdulrahman Al Obud
33'
F
27
Ahmed Al Ghamdi
F
Ahmed Al Ghamdi
F
32
Ahmed Al Julaydan
D
Ahmed Al Julaydan
D
16
Faisal Al Ghamdi
M
Faisal Al Ghamdi
M
99
G. Ilenikhena
8'
F
G. Ilenikhena
8'
F
34
S. Bergwijn
45'
F
S. Bergwijn
45'
F
Best on the pitch
T. Yengi
F · Machida
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 12 pass
K. Tani
G · Machida
7.30
· 24 pass
D. Okamura
D · Machida
7.30
· 27 pass
G. Shōji
D · Machida
7.30
· 26 pass
Y. Nakayama
D · Machida
7.20
1 shots
· 44 pass
N. Lavi
M · Machida
7.00
· 33 pass
Machida Zelvia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Tani | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Y. Nakayama | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Okamura | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Shōji | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — |
| K. Hayashi | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| N. Lavi | M | 76 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 1 | 1 | — |
| H. Mae | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Nakamura | M | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Na Sang-Ho | F | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Erik | F | 66 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 16 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Yengi | F | 85 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Futa Tokumura | F | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| H. Mochizuki | D | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| H. Shimoda | M | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| K. Sento | M | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| S. Fujio | F | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Al-Ittihad FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Rajković | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Mario Mitaj | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 63% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 60% | — | — | — | |
| Muhannad Al Shanqiti | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabinho | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 55% | — | — | — |
| Danilo Pereira | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 69 | 59% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Roger | M | 57 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| H. Aouar | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Diaby | M | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Y. En-Nesyri | F | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Abdulrahman Al Obud | F | 33 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Ilenikhena | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| S. Bergwijn | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Al-Ittihad FC?
The final score was Machida Zelvia 1–0 Al-Ittihad FC.
What did the model predict before Machida Zelvia vs Al-Ittihad FC?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Machida Zelvia win, 35% to a draw, and 27% to an Al-Ittihad FC win.