Madagascar - Guinea-Bissau
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.81%
Win
Madagascar
32.86%
Draw
37.33%
Win
Guinea-Bissau
0.7
0.99
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(12.9%)
1X2 Result
1
30%
X
33%
2
37%
Double Chance
1X
63%
X2
70%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
78%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
55%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Guinea-Bissau a 37% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Madagascar. Expected goals are 0.7 for Madagascar and 1.0 for Guinea-Bissau (total 1.7), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 12.9% probability.
Season Stats
0W
1D
1L
2W
0D
0L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.5
1.5
Conceded
0.0
3.0
Shots OT
4.5
2.5
Corners
2.0
52%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
50%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
100%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Madagascar
Guinea-Bissau →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5% | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Madagascar
Attack
31
Defence
55
Form
10
Guinea-Bissau
Attack
44
Defence
66
Form
76
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group L
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Guinea-Bissau
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Nigeria
|
2 | 3 |
| 3 |
Tanzania
|
2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Madagascar
|
2 | 1 |
What's at stake · Group L
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #1 |
| → Madagascar | #2 | #1 |
| → Draw | #3 | #1 |
| → Guinea-Bissau | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
The model gives Madagascar a 29% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 37% for an Guinea-Bissau win.
How many goals are expected in Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
Expected goals: Madagascar 0.7, Guinea-Bissau 1.0 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.9%.