Skip to main content
← Taça de Portugal

Mafra - Arouca

Taça de Portugal November 21, 2026 16:00 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Mafra
vs
Arouca
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.67%
Win
Mafra
28.85%
Draw
30.48%
Win
Arouca
1.31
Expected xG
1.0

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (12.99%)
1X2 Result
1 41%
X 29%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 59%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mafra a 40% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Arouca. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mafra and 1.0 for Arouca (total 2.3), with a 71% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 12.99% probability.

Season Stats

Mafra
2W 1D 1L
Arouca
2W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
2.3
1.8
Conceded
2.0
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
100%
75%
O 2.5
100%
75%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
67%
O 3.5
100%
BTTS
Mafra
1W 1D 0L · at home
Arouca
2W 0D 1L · away
2.5
gls/g
2.3
2.0
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
67%
100%
Win or Draw
67%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
100%
O 3.5
33%
100%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Mafra Arouca →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.0% 13.0% 6.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.5% 8.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.7% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% —
4 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% —
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Mafra Mafra
W Santa Clara 3–2
D Tirsense 2–2
W Atlético Malveira 2–3
L Celoricense 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 39%
Arouca Arouca
W CF Os Belenenses 3–4
L Fafe 2–1
W Portimonense 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 40%

Playing profile

Mafra Mafra
Attack
52
Defence
52
Form
57
Arouca Arouca
Attack
44
Defence
57
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mafra vs Arouca?
The model gives Mafra a 40% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 30% for an Arouca win.
How many goals are expected in Mafra vs Arouca?
Expected goals: Mafra 1.3, Arouca 1.0 (total 2.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 71%.
What is the most likely score in Mafra vs Arouca?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.99%.