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← Segunda División

Malaga - Almeria

Segunda División June 14, 2026 21:00
Malaga
#4 · 73 pts
vs
Almeria
#3 · 74 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.2%
Win
Malaga
22.65%
Draw
23.15%
Win
Almeria
1.95
Expected xG
1.13
Most likely result 1–1 (10.1%)
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
59%
Model prediction
Malaga
54.2%
Probability
61.1%
1X2 accuracy · 72 predictions (3 months)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Malaga a 54% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Almeria. Expected goals are 2.0 for Malaga and 1.1 for Almeria (total 3.1), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.1% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Malaga have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Almeria.

Season Stats

Malaga
8W 5D 2L
Almeria
8W 2D 5L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
1.9
1.3
Conceded
1.7
5.3
Shots OT
5.4
5.3
Corners
4.6
49%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
87%
53%
O 2.5
67%
67%
BTTS
73%
33%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Segunda División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
85%
O 1.5
50%
O 2.5
35%
O 3.5
70%
BTTS
Malaga
5W 4D 1L · at home
Almeria
3W 3D 4L · away
1.9
gls/g
1.3
1.3
Conceded
1.8
50%
Win %
30%
90%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
90%
50%
O 2.5
50%
30%
O 3.5
40%
70%
BTTS
70%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
10%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Malaga Almeria →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6% 5.2% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 9.0% 10.1% 5.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.8% 9.9% 5.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.7% 6.4% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.8% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% —
5 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% —

Recent form

Malaga Malaga
D Las Palmas 1–1
W Las Palmas 0–1
W Zaragoza 0–2
D Racing Santander 1–1
W AD Ceuta FC 1–4
Home clean sheet (120 days) 31%
Almeria Almeria
W Castellón 3–2
D Castellón 1–1
W Valladolid 1–0
L Sporting Gijon 3–1
L Las Palmas 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 17%

Playing profile

Malaga Malaga
Attack
51
Defence
74
Form
62
Almeria Almeria
Attack
46
Defence
63
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Malaga
0
Draw
1
Almeria
19 Apr 2026 Segunda División 2–3
21 Dec 2025 Segunda División 2–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Racing Santander Racing Santander 42 82
2 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 42 77
3 Almeria Almeria 42 74
4 Malaga Malaga 42 73
5 Las Palmas Las Palmas 42 73
6 Castellón Castellón 42 72
7 Burgos Burgos 42 72
8 Eibar Eibar 42 67
9 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 42 61
10 Cordoba Cordoba 42 61
11 AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 42 61
12 Albacete Albacete 42 59
13 FC Andorra FC Andorra 42 58
14 Granada CF Granada CF 42 48
15 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 42 47
16 Leganes Leganes 42 46
17 Valladolid Valladolid 42 46
18 Cadiz Cadiz 42 43
19 Mirandes Mirandes 42 40
20 Huesca Huesca 42 38
21 Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa 42 37
22 Zaragoza Zaragoza 42 36
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Malaga vs Almeria?
The model gives Malaga a 54% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 23% for an Almeria win.
How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Almeria?
Expected goals: Malaga 2.0, Almeria 1.1 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Malaga vs Almeria?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.1%.