Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad — pre-match prediction — La Liga — October 18, 2026

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La Liga · Regular Season - 9 October 18, 2026 18:30 Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga

Malaga

#20 · 5 pts

2 – 5

Final score

Real Sociedad

#5 · 19 pts

Adrian Nino (ast. Pablo Martínez Andrés) 54'

Pablo Martínez Andrés 66'

3' (ast. Hector Fort) Takefusa Kubo

26' Orri Steinn Óskarsson

59' (ast. Takefusa Kubo) Mikel Oyarzabal

67' (ast. Jon Martin) Mikel Oyarzabal

73' Gonçalo Guedes

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Sociedad a 41% win probability (draw 26%, Malaga 32%). The final result was Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.10

Actual xG

2.43

Saves

45%

Possession

55%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. Hector Fort · Takefusa Kubo⚽

26'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson⚽

37'

Jon Martin

↕ Izan Merino / Ramón Enríquez

45'

↕ José Salinas / Adam Aznou

45'

⚽Adrian Nino · ast. Pablo Martínez Andrés

54'

59'

ast. Takefusa Kubo · Mikel Oyarzabal⚽

61'

Gonçalo Guedes / Ander Barrenetxea ↕

61'

Igor Zubeldia / Hector Fort ↕

62'

Mamadou Sarr

↕ Carlos Dotor / Dani Lorenzo

64'

⚽Pablo Martínez Andrés

66'

67'

ast. Jon Martin · Mikel Oyarzabal⚽

↕ David Larrubia / Joaquín Muñoz

68'

71'

Sergio Gómez / Aihen Muñoz ↕

71'

Job Ochieng / Takefusa Kubo ↕

73'

Gonçalo Guedes⚽

79'

Alex Marchal García / Orri Steinn Óskarsson ↕

↕ Adrian Nino / Carlos Puga

82'

Pre-match prediction

32.08%

Malaga

26.72%

41.21%

Real ←

we assigned to the actual result (Real Sociedad) 41.21% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Malaga

1.50

1.10

-0.4

Real

1.98

2.43

+0.45

Real Sociedad dominated by xG (2.43 vs 1.10). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	25
3	Real Madrid	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	19
6	Sevilla	10	17
7	Alaves	10	12
8	Athletic Club	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	12
10	Villarreal	10	12
11	Deportivo La Coruna	10	11
12	Osasuna	10	11
13	Racing Santander	10	11
14	Levante	10	10
15	Elche	10	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	9
17	Getafe	10	9
18	Espanyol	10	8
19	Valencia	10	6
20	Malaga	10	5

Lineups

Malaga 4-4-2

Alfonso Herrero G 5.83

José Salinas 45' D 6.37

Ángel Recio D 6.03

Fernando Calero D 6.09

Rafita D 6.00

Pablo Martínez 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.48

Carlos Dotor 64' M 6.35

Izan Merino 45' M 6.15

David Larrubia 68' M 6.77

Chupe F 6.30

Adrián Niño Heredia 1 ⚽ 82' F 7.72

Bench

Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh 45' D 5.81

Álex Pastor D 0.00

Carlos López G 0.00

Dani Lorenzo 26' M 6.71

Einar Galilea D 0.00

Eneko Jauregi F 0.00

H. Abaida F 0.00

J. Cajuste M 0.00

Joaquín Muñoz 22' F 6.84

Puga 8' D 5.44

Rafa Rodríguez M 0.00

Ramón Enríquez 45' M 6.54

Real Sociedad 4-4-2

Álex Remiro G 6.57

Aihen Muñoz 71' D 6.25

M. Sarr D 6.17

Jon Martín 1 👟 D 6.73

Héctor Fort 1 👟 61' D 6.82

Barrenetxea 61' M 6.33

Carlos Soler M 7.20

Jon Gorrotxategi M 6.55

T. Kubo 1 ⚽ 1 👟 71' M 8.39

O. Óskarsson 1 ⚽ 79' F 7.53

Mikel Oyarzabal 2 ⚽ F 9.19

Bench

A. Lebarbier M 0.00

Alex Garcia 11' F 6.53

A. Zakharyan M 0.00

Beñat Turrientes M 0.00

Gonçalo Guedes 1 ⚽ 29' F 7.57

Gorka Carrera F 0.00

J. Ochieng 19' F 6.63

Jon Pacheco D 0.00

L. Sučić M 0.00

Sergio Gómez 19' F 6.94

Unai Marrero G 0.00

Zubeldia 29' D 6.09

Best on the pitch

Mikel Oyarzabal

F · Real

9.19

2 ⚽

5 shots · 59 pass

Pablo Martínez

M · Malaga

8.48

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 33 pass

T. Kubo

M · Real

8.39

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 20 pass

Adrián Niño Heredia

F · Malaga

7.72

1 ⚽

3 shots · 6 pass

Gonçalo Guedes

F · Real

7.57

1 ⚽

3 shots · 13 pass

O. Óskarsson

F · Real

7.53

1 ⚽

4 shots · 13 pass

Malaga — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Alfonso Herrero	G	90	5.83	—	—	0	35	22%	0	—	—
José Salinas	D	45	6.37	—	—	0	15	13%	2	—	—
Ángel Recio	D	90	6.03	—	—	1	57	55%	2	—	—
Fernando Calero	D	90	6.09	—	—	0	48	45%	2	—	—
Rafita	D	90	6.00	—	—	0	61	57%	1	—	—
Pablo Martínez	M	90	8.48	1	1	3	33	26%	1	—	—
Carlos Dotor	M	64	6.35	—	—	0	46	41%	5	—	—
Izan Merino	M	45	6.15	—	—	0	31	27%	0	—	—
David Larrubia	M	68	6.77	—	—	1	23	21%	5	—	—
Chupe	F	90	6.30	—	—	5	20	14%	1	—	—
Adrián Niño Heredia	F	82	7.72	1	—	3	6	4%	0	—	—
Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh	D	45	5.81	—	—	1	17	13%	2	—	—
Dani Lorenzo	M	26	6.71	—	—	1	26	23%	1	—	—
Joaquín Muñoz	F	22	6.84	—	—	2	8	5%	0	—	—
Puga	D	8	5.44	—	—	0	4	3%	0	—	—
Ramón Enríquez	M	45	6.54	—	—	0	47	43%	0	—	—

Real Sociedad — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Álex Remiro	G	90	6.57	—	—	0	48	32%	0	—	—
Aihen Muñoz	D	71	6.25	—	—	1	34	28%	3	—	—
M. Sarr	D	90	6.17	—	—	1	62	62%	1	1	—
Jon Martín	D	90	6.73	—	1	1	55	52%	3	1	—
Héctor Fort	D	61	6.82	—	1	0	36	36%	1	—	—
Barrenetxea	M	61	6.33	—	—	2	23	21%	2	—	—
Carlos Soler	M	90	7.20	—	—	2	99	91%	1	—	—
Jon Gorrotxategi	M	90	6.55	—	—	0	74	67%	1	—	—
T. Kubo	M	71	8.39	1	1	1	20	18%	2	—	—
O. Óskarsson	F	79	7.53	1	—	4	13	9%	0	—	—
Mikel Oyarzabal	F	90	9.19	2	—	5	59	52%	0	—	—
Alex Garcia	F	11	6.53	—	—	0	8	7%	1	—	—
Gonçalo Guedes	F	29	7.57	1	—	3	13	11%	0	—	—
J. Ochieng	F	19	6.63	—	—	1	10	7%	2	—	—
Sergio Gómez	F	19	6.94	—	—	0	20	20%	1	—	—
Zubeldia	D	29	6.09	—	—	0	15	12%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

The final score was Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad.

What did the model predict before Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

The model assigned 32% probability to a Malaga win, 26% to a draw, and 41% to an Real Sociedad win.