Malawi - South Sudan
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 25, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.56%
Win
Malawi
32.01%
Draw
36.42%
Win
South Sudan
1.09
1.52
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.3%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
32%
2
36%
Double Chance
1X
64%
X2
68%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives South Sudan a 36% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Malawi. Expected goals are 1.1 for Malawi and 1.5 for South Sudan (total 2.6), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.3% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Malawi
South Sudan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — |
Playing profile
Malawi
Attack
8
Defence
80
Form
42
South Sudan
Attack
50
Defence
87
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Malawi vs South Sudan?
The model gives Malawi a 31% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 36% for an South Sudan win.
How many goals are expected in Malawi vs South Sudan?
Expected goals: Malawi 1.1, South Sudan 1.5 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Malawi vs South Sudan?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.3%.