Mali - Rwanda
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
34.81%
Win
Mali
32.63%
Draw
32.57%
Win
Rwanda
0.9
0.84
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(13.4%)
1X2 Result
1
35%
X
33%
2
33%
Double Chance
1X
67%
X2
65%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mali a 34% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Rwanda. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mali and 0.8 for Rwanda (total 1.7), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.4% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
0L
2W
0D
0L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
2.5
0.5
Conceded
1.0
5.0
Shots OT
3.0
6.0
Corners
2.0
59%
Poss.
39%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Mali
Rwanda →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5% | 14.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.8% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Mali
Attack
31
Defence
75
Form
46
Rwanda
Attack
37
Defence
77
Form
68
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group K
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rwanda
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Mali
|
2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
2 | 0 |
| 4 |
Liberia
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group K
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #1 |
| → Mali | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Rwanda | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mali vs Rwanda?
The model gives Mali a 34% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 32% for an Rwanda win.
How many goals are expected in Mali vs Rwanda?
Expected goals: Mali 0.9, Rwanda 0.8 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Mali vs Rwanda?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.4%.