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La Liga · Regular Season - 30 April 04, 2026 18:15
Mallorca
#18 · 39 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Real Madrid
#2 · 80 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Real Madrid, result Mallorca vince
M. Morlanes (ast. P. Maffeo) 41'
V. Muriqi (ast. M. Joseph) 90'
88' (ast. T. Alexander-Arnold) Eder Militao

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 56% win probability (draw 20%, Mallorca 23%). The final result was Mallorca 2–1 Real Madrid. In 1 previous meetings, Mallorca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Real Madrid.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
1.22
Actual xG
1.27
5
Saves
0
36%
Possession
64%
6
Corners
4
12
Tackles
16
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Morlanes · ast. P. Maffeo
41'
47'
Dean Huijsen
59'
Eder Militao / D. Huijsen ↕
59'
Vinicius Junior / M. A. Moran ↕
59'
J. Bellingham / E. Camavinga ↕
Leo Román
66'
↕ M. Morlanes / M. Joseph
70'
↕ Samu Costa / D. Lopez
70'
↕ P. Torre / J. Virgili
70'
72'
T. Pitarch / A. Guler ↕
76'
F. Mastantuono / B. Diaz ↕
↕ Z. Luvumbo / A. Sanchez
81'
Martin Valjent
84'
88'
ast. T. Alexander-Arnold · Eder Militao⚽
Pablo Maffeo
90'+5
90'
Franco Mastantuono
⚽V. Muriqi · ast. M. Joseph
90'
Pre-match prediction
23.12%
Mallorca ←
20.37%
X
56.52%
Real
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Mallorca) 23.12% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mallorca
1.10
1.22
+0.12
Real
2.15
1.27
-0.88
xG dominance was balanced (1.22 – 1.27). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 36 91
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 36 80
3 Villarreal Villarreal 36 69
4 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 36 66
5 Real Betis Real Betis 36 57
6 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 36 50
7 Getafe Getafe 36 48
8 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 36 45
9 Athletic Club Athletic Club 36 44
10 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 36 44
11 Valencia Valencia 36 43
12 Sevilla Sevilla 36 43
13 Osasuna Osasuna 36 42
14 Espanyol Espanyol 36 42
15 Girona Girona 36 40
16 Alaves Alaves 36 40
17 Elche Elche 36 39
18 Mallorca Mallorca 36 39
19 Levante Levante 36 39
20 Oviedo Oviedo 36 29
Lineups
Mallorca Mallorca 4-3-1-2
1 Leo Román Leo Román G 7.50
22 Johan Mojica Johan Mojica D 6.30
5 Omar Mascarell Omar Mascarell D 6.30
24 Martin Valjent Martin Valjent D 6.90
23 Pablo Maffeo Pablo Maffeo 1 👟 D 6.90
8 Manu Morlanes Manu Morlanes 1 ⚽ 70' M 7.50
10 Sergi Darder Sergi Darder M 7.30
12 Samú Costa Samú Costa 70' M 6.30
20 Pablo Torre Pablo Torre 70' M 6.90
15 Zito Luvumbo Zito Luvumbo 81' F 6.20
7 V. Muriqi V. Muriqi 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
27 David López David López 20' D 6.60
17 Jan Virgili Jan Virgili 20' F 6.30
30
J. Kalumba F
11 Takuma Asano Takuma Asano F
Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-4-2
13
G 6.30
18 Álvaro Fernández Álvaro Fernández D 6.50
24 Dean Huijsen Dean Huijsen 59' D 6.90
22 Antonio Rüdiger Antonio Rüdiger D 6.90
12 Trent Alexander-Arnold Trent Alexander-Arnold 1 👟 D 6.90
15 A. Güler A. Güler 72' M 7.20
6 Eduardo Camavinga Eduardo Camavinga 59' M 6.60
14 Aurélien Tchouaméni Aurélien Tchouaméni M 7.50
37
M. A. Moran 59' M 6.70
10 Kylian Mbappé Kylian Mbappé F 6.60
21 Brahim Díaz Brahim Díaz 76' F 6.70
Bench
38 César Palacios César Palacios M
3
Eder Militao 1 ⚽ 31' D 7.50
30 Franco Mastantuono Franco Mastantuono 14' F 6.30
20 Fran García Fran García D
16 Gonzalo García Gonzalo García F
5 Jude Bellingham Jude Bellingham 31' M 6.30
17 Raúl Asencio Raúl Asencio D
45 Thiago Pitarch Thiago Pitarch 18' M 6.50
7 Vinícius Júnior Vinícius Júnior 31' F 6.90
Best on the pitch
Leo Román
Leo Román
G · Mallorca
7.50
· 44 pass
Eder Militao
D · Real
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 20 pass
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni
M · Real
7.50
2 shots · 50 pass
Manu Morlanes
Manu Morlanes
M · Mallorca
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 16 pass
Sergi Darder
Sergi Darder
M · Mallorca
7.30
1 shots · 43 pass
V. Muriqi
V. Muriqi
F · Mallorca
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
Mallorca Mallorca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Leo Román G 90 7.50 — — — 44 29% — 1 —
Johan Mojica D 90 6.30 — — — 33 24% 2 — —
Omar Mascarell D 90 6.30 — — — 43 40% 1 — —
Martin Valjent D 90 6.90 — — — 33 27% 1 1 —
Pablo Maffeo D 90 6.90 — 1 — 21 10% 1 1 —
Manu Morlanes M 70 7.50 1 — 2 16 15% — — —
Sergi Darder M 90 7.30 — — 1 43 38% 2 — —
Samú Costa M 70 6.30 — — — 21 17% 2 — —
Pablo Torre M 70 6.90 — — — 27 25% — — —
Zito Luvumbo F 81 6.20 — — — 5 3% — 1 —
V. Muriqi F 90 7.30 1 — 2 12 7% 1 — —
David López D 20 6.60 — — — 1 1% 1 — —
Jan Virgili F 20 6.30 — — — 2 1% 1 — —
Real Madrid Real Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 33 30% — — —
Álvaro Fernández D 90 6.50 — — — 81 75% 1 — —
Dean Huijsen D 59 6.90 — — — 43 41% 3 1 —
Antonio Rüdiger D 90 6.90 — — 1 61 52% 1 — —
Trent Alexander-Arnold D 90 6.90 — 1 — 53 44% 1 — —
A. Güler M 72 7.20 — — 1 43 33% 1 — —
Eduardo Camavinga M 59 6.60 — — — 46 43% 3 — —
Aurélien Tchouaméni M 90 7.50 — — 2 50 46% 2 — —
M. A. Moran M 59 6.70 — — 1 33 30% 1 — —
Kylian Mbappé F 90 6.60 — — 4 33 28% — — —
Brahim Díaz F 76 6.70 — — — 24 22% — — —
Eder Militao D 31 7.50 1 — 2 20 19% 1 — —
Franco Mastantuono F 14 6.30 — — — 7 6% — 1 —
Jude Bellingham M 31 6.30 — — — 20 15% 1 — —
Thiago Pitarch M 18 6.50 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
Vinícius Júnior F 31 6.90 — — 1 10 7% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
The final score was Mallorca 2–1 Real Madrid.
What did the model predict before Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Mallorca win, 20% to a draw, and 56% to an Real Madrid win.