✗Model wrong — prediction Real Madrid, result Mallorca wins
M. Morlanes
(ast. P. Maffeo)
41'
V. Muriqi
(ast. M. Joseph)
90'
88'
(ast. T. Alexander-Arnold)
Eder Militao
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 56% win probability (draw 20%, Mallorca 23%). The final result was Mallorca 2–1 Real Madrid. In 1 previous meetings, Mallorca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Real Madrid.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
1.22
Actual xG
1.27
5
Saves
0
36%
Possession
64%
6
Corners
4
12
Tackles
16
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Morlanes
· ast. P. Maffeo
41'
47'
Dean Huijsen
59'
Eder Militao
/
D. Huijsen
59'
Vinicius Junior
/
M. A. Moran
59'
J. Bellingham
/
E. Camavinga
Leo Román
66'
M. Morlanes
/ M. Joseph
70'
Samu Costa
/ D. Lopez
70'
P. Torre
/ J. Virgili
70'
72'
T. Pitarch
/
A. Guler
76'
F. Mastantuono
/
B. Diaz
Z. Luvumbo
/ A. Sanchez
81'
Martin Valjent
84'
88'
ast. T. Alexander-Arnold ·
Eder Militao⚽
Pablo Maffeo
90'+5
90'
Franco Mastantuono
⚽V. Muriqi
· ast. M. Joseph
90'
Pre-match prediction
23.12%
Mallorca ←
20.37%
X
56.52%
Real
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Mallorca)
23.12%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.10
1.22
+0.12
2.15
1.27
-0.88
xG dominance was balanced (1.22 – 1.27).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Leo Román
G
Leo Román
G
22
Johan Mojica
D
Johan Mojica
D
5
Omar Mascarell
D
Omar Mascarell
D
24
Martin Valjent
D
23
Pablo Maffeo
1 👟
D
Pablo Maffeo
1 👟
D
8
Manu Morlanes
1 ⚽
70'
M
Manu Morlanes
1 ⚽
70'
M
10
Sergi Darder
M
Sergi Darder
M
12
Samú Costa
70'
M
Samú Costa
70'
M
20
Pablo Torre
70'
M
Pablo Torre
70'
M
15
Zito Luvumbo
81'
F
Zito Luvumbo
81'
F
7
Vedat Muriqi
1 ⚽
F
Vedat Muriqi
1 ⚽
F
Bench
27
David López
20'
D
David López
20'
D
17
Jan Virgili
20'
F
Jan Virgili
20'
F
30
J. Kalumba
F
11
Takuma Asano
F
Takuma Asano
F
13
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
24
D. Huijsen
59'
D
D. Huijsen
59'
D
22
A. Rüdiger
D
A. Rüdiger
D
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
1 👟
D
Trent Alexander-Arnold
1 👟
D
15
A. Güler
72'
M
A. Güler
72'
M
6
Eduardo Camavinga
59'
M
Eduardo Camavinga
59'
M
14
A. Tchouaméni
M
A. Tchouaméni
M
37
M. A. Moran
59'
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
F
Kylian Mbappé
F
21
Brahim Díaz
76'
F
Brahim Díaz
76'
F
Bench
38
César Palacios
M
César Palacios
M
3
Eder Militao
1 ⚽
31'
D
30
Franco Mastantuono
14'
F
Franco Mastantuono
14'
F
20
Fran García
D
Fran García
D
16
Gonzalo García
F
Gonzalo García
F
5
J. Bellingham
31'
M
J. Bellingham
31'
M
17
Raúl Asencio
D
Raúl Asencio
D
45
Thiago Pitarch
18'
M
Thiago Pitarch
18'
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
31'
F
Vinícius Júnior
31'
F
Best on the pitch
Leo Román
G · Mallorca
7.50
· 44 pass
Eder Militao
D · Real
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 20 pass
A. Tchouaméni
M · Real
7.50
2 shots
· 50 pass
Manu Morlanes
M · Mallorca
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
Sergi Darder
M · Mallorca
7.30
1 shots
· 43 pass
Vedat Muriqi
F · Mallorca
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
Mallorca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Román | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 44 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| Johan Mojica | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Omar Mascarell | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Martin Valjent | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 21 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Manu Morlanes | M | 70 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Sergi Darder | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Samú Costa | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Torre | M | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Zito Luvumbo | F | 81 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Vedat Muriqi | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| David López | D | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Jan Virgili | F | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 81 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 59 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 41% | 3 | 1 | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 53 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 72 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 43% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 46% | 2 | — | — |
| M. A. Moran | M | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 4 | 33 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | F | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Eder Militao | D | 31 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
The final score was Mallorca 2–1 Real Madrid.
What did the model predict before Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Mallorca win, 20% to a draw, and 56% to an Real Madrid win.