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Malta - Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League October 01, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Malta
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Gibraltar
#1 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.66%
Win
Malta
18.6%
Draw
48.74%
Win
Gibraltar
2.02
Expected xG
2.61

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (6.82%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 19%
2 49%
Double Chance
1X 51%
X2 67%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Gibraltar a 48% win probability, against 18% for a draw and 32% for Malta. Expected goals are 2.0 for Malta and 2.6 for Gibraltar (total 4.6), with a 94% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 6.82% probability.

Season Stats

Malta
2W 1D 3L
Gibraltar
1W 3D 2L
Averages per game
0.3
Goals
0.7
1.2
Conceded
0.8
3.3
Shots OT
2.3
2.7
Corners
3.2
50%
Poss.
42%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
33%
17%
O 2.5
17%
0%
BTTS
33%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
17%
BTTS
Malta
1W 1D 1L · at home
Gibraltar
0W 2D 1L · away
0.3
gls/g
0.3
0.7
Conceded
0.7
33%
Win %
0%
67%
Win or Draw
67%
33%
O 1.5
33%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
33%
67%
Clean Sht
33%
67%
Failed to Score
67%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Malta Gibraltar →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.0% 2.5% 3.3% 2.9% 1.9% 1.0%
1 2.0% 5.1% 6.7% 5.8% 3.8% 2.0%
2 2.0% 5.2% 6.8% 5.9% 3.9% 2.0%
3 1.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.0% 2.6% 1.4%
4 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7%
5 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

Recent form

Malta Malta
L Luxembourg 3–0
L Luxembourg 0–2
D Andorra 0–0
W Moldova 1–0
W Andorra 0–1
Gibraltar Gibraltar
L Latvia 1–0
L Latvia 0–1
D San Marino 1–1
D Liechtenstein 0–0
W San Marino 1–0

Playing profile

Malta Malta
Attack
31
Defence
61
Form
30
Gibraltar Gibraltar
Attack
51
Defence
67
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League D, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Gibraltar Gibraltar 0 0
2 Malta Malta 0 0
3 Andorra Andorra 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League D, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Malta Gibraltar
Current #2 #1
→ Malta #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Gibraltar #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Malta vs Gibraltar?
The model gives Malta a 32% win probability, 18% for a draw, and 48% for an Gibraltar win.
How many goals are expected in Malta vs Gibraltar?
Expected goals: Malta 2.0, Gibraltar 2.6 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 94%.
What is the most likely score in Malta vs Gibraltar?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.82%.