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Premier League · Regular Season - 38 May 24, 2026 17:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City
#1 · 21 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Aston Villa
#9 · 11 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Manchester City, result Aston Villa wins
A. Semenyo 23'
47' O. Watkins
61' (ast. R. Barkley) O. Watkins
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 76% win probability (draw 12%, Aston Villa 11%). The final result was Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa. In 2 previous meetings, Manchester City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
5
1.25
Actual xG
1.58
3
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
9
Corners
4
10
Tackles
28
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽A. Semenyo
23'
46'
M. Cash / A. Garcia ↕
47'
O. Watkins⚽
↕ A. Semenyo / R. Cherki
58'
↕ B. Silva / M. Kovacic
59'
61'
ast. R. Barkley · O. Watkins⚽
73'
Y. Tielemans / Douglas Luiz ↕
73'
A. Onana / L. Bogarde ↕
73'
P. Torres / V. Lindelof ↕
↕ T. Reijnders / J. Doku
77'
↕ N. Ake / R. Ait-Nouri
77'
↕ J. Stones / J. Gvardiol
78'
R. Lewis
82'
86'
J. McGinn / R. Barkley ↕
90'
Pre-match prediction
76.11%
Manchester
12.47%
X
11.42%
Aston ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa) 11.42% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Manchester
3.48
1.25
-2.23
Aston
1.28
1.58
+0.3
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.58 vs 1.25). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Manchester City Manchester City 8 21
2 Arsenal Arsenal 8 21
3 Brighton Brighton 8 16
4 Liverpool Liverpool 8 15
5 Chelsea Chelsea 8 13
6 Brentford Brentford 8 11
7 Leeds Leeds 8 11
8 Newcastle Newcastle 8 11
9 Aston Villa Aston Villa 8 11
10 Hull City Hull City 8 10
11 Everton Everton 8 10
12 Ipswich Ipswich 8 10
13 Bournemouth Bournemouth 8 9
14 Tottenham Tottenham 8 9
15 Fulham Fulham 8 8
16 Manchester United Manchester United 8 7
17 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 8 7
18 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 8 6
19 Coventry Coventry 8 6
20 Sunderland Sunderland 8 5
Lineups
Manchester City Manchester City 4-2-2-2
1 J. Trafford J. Trafford G 6.30
6 N. Aké N. Aké 77' D 6.70
3 Rúben Dias Rúben Dias D 6.70
5 John Stones John Stones 78' D 6.20
82 R. Lewis R. Lewis D 5.90
20 Bernardo Silva Bernardo Silva 59' M 6.90
14 Nico González Nico González M 7.50
26 Sávio Sávio M 6.60
42 A. Semenyo A. Semenyo 1 ⚽ 58' M 7.50
4 T. Reijnders T. Reijnders 77' F 6.30
47 P. Foden P. Foden F 6.30
Bench
11 J. Doku J. Doku 25' F 6.60
24 J. Gvardiol J. Gvardiol 24' D 6.90
27 Matheus Nunes Matheus Nunes M
68 Max Alleyne Max Alleyne D
13 M. Bettinelli M. Bettinelli G
8 M. Kovačić M. Kovačić 43' M 6.60
7 Omar Marmoush Omar Marmoush F
21 R. Aït-Nouri R. Aït-Nouri 25' D 7.00
10 R. Cherki R. Cherki 44' M 6.30
Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
40 M. Bizot M. Bizot G 6.90
22 I. Maatsen I. Maatsen D 6.60
5 T. Mings T. Mings D 6.90
3 V. Lindelöf V. Lindelöf 73' D 6.60
16 Andrés García Andrés García 45' D 6.60
21 Douglas Luiz Douglas Luiz 73' M 7.50
26 L. Bogarde L. Bogarde 73' M 6.70
10 E. Buendía E. Buendía M 7.60
6 R. Barkley R. Barkley 1 👟 86' M 6.60
31 L. Bailey L. Bailey M 6.30
11 O. Watkins O. Watkins 2 ⚽ F 9.30
Bench
24 Amadou Onana Amadou Onana 29' M 6.60
83 B. Burrows B. Burrows M
53 George Hemmings George Hemmings M
7 J. McGinn J. McGinn 16' M 6.90
64 J. Wright J. Wright G
12 L. Digne L. Digne D
2 M. Cash M. Cash 57' D 6.60
14 Pau Torres Pau Torres 29' D 6.60
8 Y. Tielemans Y. Tielemans 29' M 7.60
Best on the pitch
O. Watkins
O. Watkins
F · Aston
9.30
2 ⚽
3 shots · 15 pass
Y. Tielemans
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.60
1 shots · 17 pass
E. Buendía
E. Buendía
M · Aston
7.60
2 shots · 31 pass
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
M · Aston
7.50
· 48 pass
A. Semenyo
A. Semenyo
M · Manchester
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 22 pass
Nico González
Nico González
M · Manchester
7.50
· 66 pass
Manchester City Manchester City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Trafford G 102 6.30 — — — 11 10% — — —
N. Aké D 77 6.70 — — — 32 28% — — —
Rúben Dias D 102 6.70 — — — 63 58% — — —
John Stones D 78 6.20 — — — 32 31% 1 — —
R. Lewis D 102 5.90 — — — 49 36% — 1 —
Bernardo Silva M 59 6.90 — — 1 26 24% 4 — —
Nico González M 102 7.50 — — — 66 62% 3 — —
Sávio M 102 6.60 — — 2 28 24% — — —
A. Semenyo M 58 7.50 1 — 1 22 21% — — —
T. Reijnders F 77 6.30 — — 4 27 25% — — —
P. Foden F 102 6.30 — — — 48 41% — — —
J. Doku F 25 6.60 — — 1 6 3% — — —
J. Gvardiol D 24 6.90 — — — 13 13% — — —
M. Kovačić M 43 6.60 — — — 15 13% — — —
R. Aït-Nouri D 25 7.00 — — — 3 3% 2 — —
R. Cherki M 44 6.30 — — 1 17 13% — — —
Aston Villa Aston Villa — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Bizot G 102 6.90 — — — 43 30% — — —
I. Maatsen D 102 6.60 — — — 33 30% 4 — —
T. Mings D 102 6.90 — — — 74 72% 1 — —
V. Lindelöf D 73 6.60 — — — 53 51% 1 — —
Andrés García D 45 6.60 — — — 12 12% 4 — —
Douglas Luiz M 73 7.50 — — — 48 46% 1 — —
L. Bogarde M 73 6.70 — — — 21 19% — — —
E. Buendía M 102 7.60 — — 2 31 28% 8 — —
R. Barkley M 86 6.60 — 1 — 26 23% 2 — —
L. Bailey M 102 6.30 — — 2 18 14% 2 — —
O. Watkins F 102 9.30 2 — 3 15 14% 1 — —
Amadou Onana M 29 6.60 — — — 8 8% 1 — —
J. McGinn M 16 6.90 — — 1 6 5% 1 — —
M. Cash D 57 6.60 — — — 17 11% — — —
Pau Torres D 29 6.60 — — 1 14 14% — — —
Y. Tielemans M 29 7.60 — — 1 17 17% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 76% probability to a Manchester City win, 12% to a draw, and 11% to an Aston Villa win.