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Premier League · Regular Season - 38 May 24, 2026 17:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City
#15 · 0 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Aston Villa
#2 · 0 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Manchester City, result Aston Villa wins
A. Semenyo 23'
47' O. Watkins
61' (ast. R. Barkley) O. Watkins
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 76% win probability (draw 12%, Aston Villa 11%). The final result was Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa. In 1 previous meetings, Manchester City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Aston Villa.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
5
1.25
Actual xG
1.58
3
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
9
Corners
4
10
Tackles
28
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽A. Semenyo
23'
46'
M. Cash / A. Garcia ↕
47'
O. Watkins⚽
↕ A. Semenyo / R. Cherki
58'
↕ B. Silva / M. Kovacic
59'
61'
ast. R. Barkley · O. Watkins⚽
73'
Y. Tielemans / Douglas Luiz ↕
73'
A. Onana / L. Bogarde ↕
73'
P. Torres / V. Lindelof ↕
↕ T. Reijnders / J. Doku
77'
↕ N. Ake / R. Ait-Nouri
77'
↕ J. Stones / J. Gvardiol
78'
R. Lewis
82'
86'
J. McGinn / R. Barkley ↕
90'
Pre-match prediction
76.11%
Manchester
12.47%
X
11.42%
Aston ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa) 11.42% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Manchester
3.48
1.25
-2.23
Aston
1.28
1.58
+0.3
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.58 vs 1.25). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Arsenal Arsenal 0 0
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0 0
3 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
4 Brentford Brentford 0 0
5 Brighton Brighton 0 0
6 Chelsea Chelsea 0 0
7 Coventry Coventry 0 0
8 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
9 Everton Everton 0 0
10 Fulham Fulham 0 0
11 Hull City Hull City 0 0
12 Ipswich Ipswich 0 0
13 Leeds Leeds 0 0
14 Liverpool Liverpool 0 0
15 Manchester City Manchester City 0 0
16 Manchester United Manchester United 0 0
17 Newcastle Newcastle 0 0
18 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0 0
19 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
20 Tottenham Tottenham 0 0
Lineups
Manchester City Manchester City 4-2-2-2
1 James Trafford James Trafford G 6.30
6 Nathan Aké Nathan Aké 77' D 6.70
3 Rúben Dias Rúben Dias D 6.70
5 John Stones John Stones 78' D 6.20
82 R. Lewis R. Lewis D 5.90
20 Bernardo Silva Bernardo Silva 59' M 6.90
14 Nico González Nico González M 7.50
26 Savinho Savinho M 6.60
42 A. Semenyo A. Semenyo 1 ⚽ 58' M 7.50
4 T. Reijnders T. Reijnders 77' F 6.30
47 P. Foden P. Foden F 6.30
Bench
11 J. Doku J. Doku 25' F 6.60
24 Joško Gvardiol Joško Gvardiol 24' D 6.90
13 Marcus Bettinelli Marcus Bettinelli G
8 Mateo Kovačić Mateo Kovačić 43' M 6.60
27 Matheus Nunes Matheus Nunes M
68 Max Alleyne Max Alleyne D
7 Omar Marmoush Omar Marmoush F
21 Rayan Aït-Nouri Rayan Aït-Nouri 25' D 7.00
10 R. Cherki R. Cherki 44' M 6.30
Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
40 M. Bizot M. Bizot G 6.90
22 Ian Maatsen Ian Maatsen D 6.60
5 Tyrone Mings Tyrone Mings D 6.90
3 Victor Lindelöf Victor Lindelöf 73' D 6.60
16 Andrés García Andrés García 45' D 6.60
21 Douglas Luiz Douglas Luiz 73' M 7.50
26 Lamare Bogarde Lamare Bogarde 73' M 6.70
10 E. Buendía E. Buendía M 7.60
6 Ross Barkley Ross Barkley 1 👟 86' M 6.60
31 L. Bailey L. Bailey M 6.30
11 Ollie Watkins Ollie Watkins 2 ⚽ F 9.30
Bench
24 Amadou Onana Amadou Onana 29' M 6.60
83 Bradley Burrowes Bradley Burrowes M
53 George Hemmings George Hemmings M
64 James Wright James Wright G
7 J. McGinn J. McGinn 16' M 6.90
12 Lucas Digne Lucas Digne D
2 M. Cash M. Cash 57' D 6.60
14 Pau Torres Pau Torres 29' D 6.60
8 Y. Tielemans Y. Tielemans 29' M 7.60
Best on the pitch
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins
F · Aston
9.30
2 ⚽
3 shots · 15 pass
Y. Tielemans
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.60
1 shots · 17 pass
E. Buendía
E. Buendía
M · Aston
7.60
2 shots · 31 pass
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
M · Aston
7.50
· 48 pass
A. Semenyo
A. Semenyo
M · Manchester
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 22 pass
Nico González
Nico González
M · Manchester
7.50
· 66 pass
Manchester City Manchester City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
James Trafford G 102 6.30 — — — 11 10% — — —
Nathan Aké D 77 6.70 — — — 32 28% — — —
Rúben Dias D 102 6.70 — — — 63 58% — — —
John Stones D 78 6.20 — — — 32 31% 1 — —
R. Lewis D 102 5.90 — — — 49 36% — 1 —
Bernardo Silva M 59 6.90 — — 1 26 24% 4 — —
Nico González M 102 7.50 — — — 66 62% 3 — —
Savinho M 102 6.60 — — 2 28 24% — — —
A. Semenyo M 58 7.50 1 — 1 22 21% — — —
T. Reijnders F 77 6.30 — — 4 27 25% — — —
P. Foden F 102 6.30 — — — 48 41% — — —
J. Doku F 25 6.60 — — 1 6 3% — — —
Joško Gvardiol D 24 6.90 — — — 13 13% — — —
Mateo Kovačić M 43 6.60 — — — 15 13% — — —
Rayan Aït-Nouri D 25 7.00 — — — 3 3% 2 — —
R. Cherki M 44 6.30 — — 1 17 13% — — —
Aston Villa Aston Villa — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Bizot G 102 6.90 — — — 43 30% — — —
Ian Maatsen D 102 6.60 — — — 33 30% 4 — —
Tyrone Mings D 102 6.90 — — — 74 72% 1 — —
Victor Lindelöf D 73 6.60 — — — 53 51% 1 — —
Andrés García D 45 6.60 — — — 12 12% 4 — —
Douglas Luiz M 73 7.50 — — — 48 46% 1 — —
Lamare Bogarde M 73 6.70 — — — 21 19% — — —
E. Buendía M 102 7.60 — — 2 31 28% 8 — —
Ross Barkley M 86 6.60 — 1 — 26 23% 2 — —
L. Bailey M 102 6.30 — — 2 18 14% 2 — —
Ollie Watkins F 102 9.30 2 — 3 15 14% 1 — —
Amadou Onana M 29 6.60 — — — 8 8% 1 — —
J. McGinn M 16 6.90 — — 1 6 5% 1 — —
M. Cash D 57 6.60 — — — 17 11% — — —
Pau Torres D 29 6.60 — — 1 14 14% — — —
Y. Tielemans M 29 7.60 — — 1 17 17% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 76% probability to a Manchester City win, 12% to a draw, and 11% to an Aston Villa win.