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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 October 17, 2026 16:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City
#1 · 21 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Ipswich
#12 · 10 pts
Phil Foden (ast. Jeremy Doku) 19'
Erling Haaland (ast. Mateo Kovačić) 34'
Erling Haaland (ast. Iliman Ndiaye) 69'
21' (ast. Abdoul Ouattara) Daizen Maeda
(pen.) 90' Zian Flemming
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 48% win probability (draw 25%, Ipswich 25%). The final result was Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich.

Match statistics
19
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
3
3.61
Actual xG
1.72
1
Saves
4
70%
Possession
30%
2
Corners
3
16
Tackles
28
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Phil Foden · ast. Jeremy Doku
19'
21'
ast. Abdoul Ouattara · Daizen Maeda⚽
⚽Erling Haaland · ast. Mateo Kovačić
34'
↕ Mateo Kovačić / Enzo Fernández
50'
↕ Nico O'Reilly / Josko Gvardiol
61'
⚽Erling Haaland · ast. Iliman Ndiaye
69'
71'
Azor Matusiwa / Florentino Luís ↕
71'
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku / Daizen Maeda ↕
73'
Abdoul Ouattara
↕ Matheus Nunes / Abdukodir Khusanov
76'
↕ Phil Foden / Elliot Anderson
77'
↕ Jeremy Doku / Antoine Semenyo
77'
78'
Chuba Akpom / Julio Enciso ↕
78'
Zian Flemming / Emersonn ↕
85'
88'
90'+1
Jack Clarke / Jacob Greaves ↕
Josko Gvardiol
90'+7
90'+12
Leif Davis
90'
(pen.) Zian Flemming⚽
Pre-match prediction
48.72%
Manchester ←
25.35%
X
25.93%
Ipswich
we assigned to the actual result (Manchester City) 48.72% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Manchester
2.13
3.61
+1.48
Ipswich
1.44
1.72
+0.28
Manchester City dominated by xG (3.61 vs 1.72). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Manchester City Manchester City 8 21
2 Arsenal Arsenal 8 21
3 Brighton Brighton 8 16
4 Liverpool Liverpool 8 15
5 Chelsea Chelsea 8 13
6 Brentford Brentford 8 11
7 Leeds Leeds 8 11
8 Newcastle Newcastle 8 11
9 Aston Villa Aston Villa 8 11
10 Hull City Hull City 8 10
11 Everton Everton 8 10
12 Ipswich Ipswich 8 10
13 Bournemouth Bournemouth 8 9
14 Tottenham Tottenham 8 9
15 Fulham Fulham 8 8
16 Manchester United Manchester United 8 7
17 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 8 7
18 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 8 6
19 Coventry Coventry 8 6
20 Sunderland Sunderland 8 5
Lineups
Manchester City Manchester City 4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma G. Donnarumma G 6.01
33 N. O'Reilly N. O'Reilly 61' D 5.75
6 M. Guéhi M. Guéhi D 6.88
3 Rúben Dias Rúben Dias D 6.98
27 Matheus Nunes Matheus Nunes 76' D 6.16
32 A. Bouaddi A. Bouaddi M 6.66
8 M. Kovačić M. Kovačić 1 👟 50' M 7.70
11 J. Doku J. Doku 1 👟 77' M 7.32
47 P. Foden P. Foden 1 ⚽ 77' M 8.20
7 I. Ndiaye I. Ndiaye 1 👟 M 6.43
9 E. Haaland E. Haaland 2 ⚽ F 9.80
Bench
45 A. Khusanov A. Khusanov 14' D 6.16
37 Allan Allan F 0.00
42 A. Semenyo A. Semenyo 13' F 6.47
5 E. Anderson E. Anderson 13' M 5.99
17 E. Fernández E. Fernández 40' M 6.50
28 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 0.00
24 J. Gvardiol J. Gvardiol 29' D 5.49
21 R. Aït-Nouri R. Aït-Nouri D 0.00
10 R. Cherki R. Cherki M 0.00
Ipswich Ipswich 3-4-2-1
28 C. Walton C. Walton G 6.65
24 J. Greaves J. Greaves 89' D 6.18
6 I. Diop I. Diop D 6.41
26 D. O'Shea D. O'Shea D 6.06
3 L. Davis L. Davis M 6.26
25 E. Palacios E. Palacios M 6.61
12 Florentino Florentino 71' M 5.90
42 A. Ouattara A. Ouattara 1 👟 M 6.75
10 J. Enciso J. Enciso 78' M 5.75
38 D. Maeda D. Maeda 1 ⚽ 71' M 6.97
19 Emersonn Emersonn 78' F 6.33
Bench
7 A. Fatawu A. Fatawu 19' F 6.46
5 A. Matusiwa A. Matusiwa 19' M 5.90
29 C. Akpom C. Akpom 12' F 6.48
4 C. Kipré C. Kipré D 0.00
2 D. Furlong D. Furlong D 0.00
47 J. Clarke J. Clarke 1' F 0.00
11 J. Philogene J. Philogene F 0.00
37 K. Scherpen K. Scherpen G 0.00
9 Z. Flemming Z. Flemming 1 ⚽ 12' F 7.67
Best on the pitch
E. Haaland
E. Haaland
F · Manchester
9.80
2 ⚽
5 shots · 15 pass
P. Foden
P. Foden
M · Manchester
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 52 pass
M. Kovačić
M. Kovačić
M · Manchester
7.70
1 👟
· 48 pass
Z. Flemming
Z. Flemming
F · Ipswich
7.67
1 ⚽
2 shots · 5 pass
J. Doku
J. Doku
M · Manchester
7.32
1 👟
1 shots · 41 pass
Rúben Dias
Rúben Dias
D · Manchester
6.98
3 shots · 124 pass
Manchester City Manchester City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Donnarumma G 90 6.01 — — 0 28 22% 0 — —
N. O'Reilly D 61 5.75 — — 1 34 31% 0 — —
M. Guéhi D 90 6.88 — — 0 115 108% 1 — —
Rúben Dias D 90 6.98 — — 3 124 119% 1 — —
Matheus Nunes D 76 6.16 — — 0 86 80% 3 — —
A. Bouaddi M 90 6.66 — — 0 72 68% 3 — —
M. Kovačić M 50 7.70 — 1 0 48 45% 0 — —
J. Doku M 77 7.32 — 1 1 41 38% 1 — —
P. Foden M 77 8.20 1 — 3 52 45% 2 — —
I. Ndiaye M 90 6.43 — 1 4 56 45% 4 — —
E. Haaland F 90 9.80 2 — 5 15 9% 0 — —
A. Khusanov D 14 6.16 — — 0 11 11% 0 — —
A. Semenyo F 13 6.47 — — 0 3 2% 1 — —
E. Anderson M 13 5.99 — — 0 11 10% 0 — —
E. Fernández M 40 6.50 — — 2 36 31% 0 — —
J. Gvardiol D 29 5.49 — — 0 13 10% 0 1 —
Ipswich Ipswich — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Walton G 90 6.65 — — 0 26 18% 0 — —
J. Greaves D 89 6.18 — — 1 23 19% 3 — —
I. Diop D 90 6.41 — — 0 29 26% 4 — —
D. O'Shea D 90 6.06 — — 0 32 23% 5 — —
L. Davis M 90 6.26 — — 0 26 21% 2 1 —
E. Palacios M 90 6.61 — — 0 58 52% 5 — —
Florentino M 71 5.90 — — 0 19 16% 3 — —
A. Ouattara M 90 6.75 — 1 1 28 23% 0 1 —
J. Enciso M 78 5.75 — — 0 19 15% 2 — —
D. Maeda M 71 6.97 1 — 1 12 10% 0 — —
Emersonn F 78 6.33 — — 3 10 5% 0 — —
A. Fatawu F 19 6.46 — — 0 7 3% 2 — —
A. Matusiwa M 19 5.90 — — 0 11 11% 1 — —
C. Akpom F 12 6.48 — — 0 5 5% 1 — —
J. Clarke F 1 0.00 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
Z. Flemming F 12 7.67 1 — 2 5 4% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Ipswich?
The final score was Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich.
What did the model predict before Manchester City vs Ipswich?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Manchester City win, 25% to a draw, and 25% to an Ipswich win.