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Manchester City - Norwich

EFL Cup September 17, 2026 20:30 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City
vs
Norwich
Weather at kick-off 🌦️ Light drizzle 14.1°C 💨 18 km/h 🌧️ 62% · Manchester
⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.9%
Win
Manchester City
23.34%
Draw
27.76%
Win
Norwich
3.88
Expected xG
2.51

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (6.89%)
1X2 Result
1 49%
X 23%
2 28%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 51%
12 77%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 71%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Manchester City a 48% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Norwich. Expected goals are 3.9 for Manchester City and 2.5 for Norwich (total 6.4), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 6.89% probability.

Season Stats

Manchester City
6W 0D 0L
Norwich
3W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.3
Goals
2.0
0.3
Conceded
1.5
5.7
Shots OT
5.0
5.3
Corners
4.5
66%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
100%
33%
BTTS
75%
67%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
Manchester City
2W 0D 0L · at home
Norwich
2W 0D 0L · away
2.5
gls/g
2.0
0.5
Conceded
1.0
100%
Win %
100%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Manchester City Norwich →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
1 0.7% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5%
2 1.3% 3.2% 4.0% 3.3% 2.1% 1.0%
3 1.6% 4.1% 5.1% 4.3% 2.7% 1.4%
4 1.6% 4.0% 5.0% 4.2% 2.6% 1.3%
5 1.2% 3.1% 3.9% 3.2% 2.0% 1.0%

Recent form

Manchester City Manchester City
W Arsenal 0–2
W Newcastle 3–1
W Newcastle 0–2
W Brentford 2–0
W Swansea 1–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Norwich Norwich
W Cardiff 1–2
W Milton Keynes Dons 4–1
L Southampton 0–3
W Watford 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Manchester City Manchester City
Attack
56
Defence
76
Form
72
Norwich Norwich
Attack
56
Defence
65
Form
61
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Manchester City vs Norwich?
The model gives Manchester City a 48% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 27% for an Norwich win.
How many goals are expected in Manchester City vs Norwich?
Expected goals: Manchester City 3.9, Norwich 2.5 (total 6.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City vs Norwich?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.89%.