Manchester City - Paris Saint Germain
Champions League
October 14, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.17%
Win
Manchester City
33.08%
Draw
27.75%
Win
Paris Saint Germain
1.07
0.46
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(13.66%)
1X2 Result
1
39%
X
33%
2
28%
Double Chance
1X
72%
X2
61%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Manchester City a 39% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 27% for Paris Saint Germain. Expected goals are 1.1 for Manchester City and 0.5 for Paris Saint Germain (total 1.5), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.66% probability.
Season Stats
6W
1D
4L
8W
5D
2L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
2.5
1.3
Conceded
1.4
7.1
Shots OT
6.9
6.2
Corners
5.9
59%
Poss.
64%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
93%
55%
O 2.5
60%
45%
BTTS
73%
36%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
23%
O 3.5
52%
BTTS
3W
0D
2L
· at home
5W
2D
1L
· away
1.8
gls/g
2.4
1.0
Conceded
1.0
60%
Win %
63%
60%
Win or Draw
88%
100%
O 1.5
88%
40%
O 2.5
63%
20%
O 3.5
25%
40%
BTTS
63%
40%
Clean Sht
38%
20%
Failed to Score
13%
last 8
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Manchester City
Paris Saint Germain →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.7% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 1 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 2 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 3 | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Manchester City
Attack
46
Defence
65
Form
52
Paris Saint Germain
Attack
35
Defence
53
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Manchester United
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Como
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City
|
1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Lens
|
1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 3 |
| 16 |
AEK Athens FC
|
1 | 3 |
| 17 |
AS Roma
|
1 | 1 |
| 18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1 | 1 |
| 19 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
1 | 1 |
| 20 |
Fenerbahçe
|
1 | 1 |
| 21 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Lille
|
1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Slavia Praha
|
1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Club Brugge KV
|
1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Inter
|
1 | 0 |
| 26 |
Atletico Madrid
|
1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Lask Linz
|
1 | 0 |
| 29 |
Viking
|
1 | 0 |
| 30 |
Galatasaray
|
1 | 0 |
| 31 |
FC Porto
|
1 | 0 |
| 32 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Feyenoord
|
1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Sabah FA
|
1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model gives Manchester City a 39% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 27% for an Paris Saint Germain win.
How many goals are expected in Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?
Expected goals: Manchester City 1.1, Paris Saint Germain 0.5 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.66%.