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Champions League · League Stage - 2 October 14, 2026 21:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City
#10 · 6 pts
2 – 4
Final score
Paris Saint Germain
#1 · 9 pts
Erling Haaland (ast. Iliman Ndiaye) 53'
Erling Haaland (ast. Ayyoub Bouaddi) 75'
13' (ast. Fabián Ruiz) Désiré Doue
15' (ast. Désiré Doue) Ousmane Dembélé
32' (ast. Warren Zaire-Emery) Vitinha
62' (ast. Ousmane Dembélé) Maghnes Akliouche
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 39% win probability (draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 30%). The final result was Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain.

Match statistics
27
Total shots
15
9
Shots on target
10
2.61
Actual xG
1.85
6
Saves
6
54%
Possession
46%
11
Corners
2
23
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
13'
ast. Fabián Ruiz · Désiré Doue⚽
15'
ast. Désiré Doue · Ousmane Dembélé⚽
32'
ast. Warren Zaire-Emery · Vitinha⚽
↕ Jeremy Doku / Iliman Ndiaye
45'
↕ Rúben Dias / Matheus Nunes
45'
↕ Rayan Cherki / Ayyoub Bouaddi
45'
⚽Erling Haaland · ast. Iliman Ndiaye
53'
Antoine Semenyo
61'
62'
ast. Ousmane Dembélé · Maghnes Akliouche⚽
66'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia / Désiré Doue ↕
69'
Warren Zaire-Emery
⚽Erling Haaland · ast. Ayyoub Bouaddi
75'
76'
Ferrán Torres / Ousmane Dembélé ↕
76'
João Neves / Maghnes Akliouche ↕
84'
Lucas Beraldo / Warren Zaire-Emery ↕
84'
Lucas Hernández / Fabián Ruiz ↕
90'
(missed pen.) Ferrán Torres⚽
↕ Enzo Fernández / Nico O'Reilly
90'
Pre-match prediction
39.45%
Manchester
30.42%
X
30.13%
Paris ←
we assigned to the actual result (Paris Saint Germain) 30.13% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Manchester
1.08
2.61
+1.53
Paris
0.87
1.85
+0.98
Manchester City dominated by xG (2.61 vs 1.85). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 3 9
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3 9
3 Liverpool Liverpool 3 9
4 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3 9
5 Real Betis Real Betis 3 9
6 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 7
7 Arsenal Arsenal 3 7
8 Barcelona Barcelona 3 6
9 Como Como 3 6
10 Manchester City Manchester City 3 6
11 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 3 6
12 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3 6
13 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 6
14 Bayern München Bayern München 3 5
15 AS Roma AS Roma 3 4
16 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3 4
17 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3 4
18 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3 4
19 Villarreal Villarreal 3 3
20 Inter Inter 3 3
21 Manchester United Manchester United 3 3
22 Napoli Napoli 3 3
23 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3 3
24 Lask Linz Lask Linz 3 3
25 Sabah FA Sabah FA 3 3
26 Feyenoord Feyenoord 3 3
27 Lens Lens 3 3
28 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 3 3
29 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 3 3
30 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3 3
31 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3 2
32 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 3 1
33 Viking Viking 3 1
34 FC Porto FC Porto 3 0
35 Lille Lille 3 0
36 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 3 0
Lineups
Manchester City Manchester City 4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma G. Donnarumma G 6.90
24 J. Gvardiol J. Gvardiol D 6.65
6 M. Guéhi M. Guéhi D 6.16
3 Rúben Dias Rúben Dias 45' D 5.90
45 A. Khusanov A. Khusanov D 6.23
17 E. Fernández E. Fernández 89' M 6.84
5 E. Anderson E. Anderson M 6.61
11 J. Doku J. Doku 45' M 6.38
10 R. Cherki R. Cherki 45' M 6.33
42 A. Semenyo A. Semenyo M 5.95
9 E. Haaland E. Haaland 2 ⚽ F 8.52
Bench
32 A. Bouaddi A. Bouaddi 1 👟 45' M 6.57
37 Allan Allan F 0.00
28 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 0.00
7 I. Ndiaye I. Ndiaye 1 👟 45' F 7.30
27 Matheus Nunes Matheus Nunes 45' M 6.68
13 M. Bettinelli M. Bettinelli G 0.00
8 M. Kovačić M. Kovačić M 0.00
33 N. O'Reilly N. O'Reilly 1' D 0.00
47 P. Foden P. Foden M 0.00
21 R. Aït-Nouri R. Aït-Nouri D 0.00
82 R. Lewis R. Lewis D 0.00
22 Vitor Nunes Vitor Nunes D 0.00
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
39 M. Safonov M. Safonov G 6.61
25 Nuno Mendes Nuno Mendes D 6.79
51 W. Pacho W. Pacho D 6.35
5 Marquinhos Marquinhos D 6.82
2 A. Hakimi A. Hakimi D 6.07
8 Fabián Ruiz Fabián Ruiz 1 👟 84' M 7.09
17 Vitinha Vitinha 1 ⚽ M 8.20
33 W. Zaïre-Emery W. Zaïre-Emery 1 👟 84' M 7.14
14 D. Doué D. Doué 1 ⚽ 1 👟 66' F 9.00
10 O. Dembélé O. Dembélé 1 ⚽ 1 👟 76' F 8.48
11 M. Akliouche M. Akliouche 1 ⚽ 76' F 7.90
Bench
4 Beraldo Beraldo 6' D 6.22
9 Ferran Torres Ferran Torres 14' F 6.44
6 I. Zabarnyi I. Zabarnyi D 0.00
87 João Neves João Neves 14' M 6.23
7 K. Kvaratskhelia K. Kvaratskhelia 24' F 6.67
30 L. Chevalier L. Chevalier G 0.00
12 L. Digne L. Digne D 0.00
21 L. Hernández L. Hernández 6' D 6.30
22 M. Godts M. Godts F 0.00
27 Pedro Fernández Pedro Fernández M 0.00
47 Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha F 0.00
Best on the pitch
D. Doué
D. Doué
F · Paris
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 28 pass
E. Haaland
E. Haaland
F · Manchester
8.52
2 ⚽
8 shots · 22 pass
O. Dembélé
O. Dembélé
F · Paris
8.48
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 41 pass
Vitinha
Vitinha
M · Paris
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 56 pass
M. Akliouche
M. Akliouche
F · Paris
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 40 pass
I. Ndiaye
I. Ndiaye
F · Manchester
7.30
1 👟
4 shots · 20 pass
Manchester City Manchester City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Donnarumma G 90 6.90 — — 0 32 24% 0 — —
J. Gvardiol D 90 6.65 — — 3 39 32% 7 — —
M. Guéhi D 90 6.16 — — 0 48 42% 2 — —
Rúben Dias D 45 5.90 — — 0 25 21% 3 — —
A. Khusanov D 90 6.23 — — 0 44 40% 4 — —
E. Fernández M 89 6.84 — — 3 57 47% 1 — —
E. Anderson M 90 6.61 — — 2 66 58% 4 — —
J. Doku M 45 6.38 — — 1 11 10% 0 — —
R. Cherki M 45 6.33 — — 0 26 25% 1 — —
A. Semenyo M 90 5.95 — — 6 37 27% 0 1 —
E. Haaland F 90 8.52 2 — 8 22 15% 0 — —
A. Bouaddi M 45 6.57 — 1 0 40 37% 0 — —
I. Ndiaye F 45 7.30 — 1 4 20 17% 1 — —
Matheus Nunes M 45 6.68 — — 0 31 28% 0 — —
N. O'Reilly D 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Safonov G 90 6.61 — — 0 27 13% 0 — —
Nuno Mendes D 90 6.79 — — 1 37 33% 1 — —
W. Pacho D 90 6.35 — — 0 25 20% 0 — —
Marquinhos D 90 6.82 — — 0 51 45% 2 — —
A. Hakimi D 90 6.07 — — 3 45 37% 6 — —
Fabián Ruiz M 84 7.09 — 1 1 46 40% 3 — —
Vitinha M 90 8.20 1 — 3 56 46% 1 — —
W. Zaïre-Emery M 84 7.14 — 1 2 33 31% 2 1 —
D. Doué F 66 9.00 1 1 1 28 27% 2 — —
O. Dembélé F 76 8.48 1 1 1 41 34% 0 — —
M. Akliouche F 76 7.90 1 — 1 40 36% 2 — —
Beraldo D 6 6.22 — — 0 3 2% 1 — —
Ferran Torres F 14 6.44 — — 1 2 2% 0 — —
João Neves M 14 6.23 — — 0 8 7% 3 — —
K. Kvaratskhelia F 24 6.67 — — 1 1 1% 0 — —
L. Hernández D 6 6.30 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?
The final score was Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain.
What did the model predict before Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Manchester City win, 30% to a draw, and 30% to an Paris Saint Germain win.