Premier League
· Regular Season - 34
April 27, 2026 23:00
Casemiro
(ast. H. Maguire)
11'
B. Sesko
(ast. B. Fernandes)
43'
87'
(ast. R. Nelson)
M. Jensen
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester United a 49% win probability (draw 26%, Brentford 24%). The final result was Manchester United 2–1 Brentford. In 1 previous meetings, Manchester United have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Brentford.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
4
1.27
Actual xG
1.43
5
Saves
3
45%
Possession
55%
7
Corners
8
30
Tackles
7
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
L. Shaw
6'
⚽Casemiro
· ast. H. Maguire
11'
40'
S. van den Berg
⚽B. Sesko
· ast. B. Fernandes
43'
A. Diallo
/ N. Mazraoui
46'
71'
D. Ouattara
73'
R. Nelson
/
K. Schade
L. Shaw
/ L. Yoro
73'
B. Mbeumo
/ M. Mount
74'
76'
I. Thiago
87'
ast. R. Nelson ·
M. Jensen⚽
B. Sesko
/ J. Zirkzee
88'
J. Zirkzee
90'+2
90'+6
N. Collins
Pre-match prediction
49.39%
Manchester ←
26.31%
X
24.31%
Brentford
we assigned to the actual result (Manchester United)
49.39%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.64
1.27
-0.37
1.13
1.43
+0.3
xG dominance was balanced (1.27 – 1.43).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
G
23
L. Shaw
73'
D
26
D
5
1 👟
D
2
D. Dalot
D
37
K. Mainoo
M
18
Casemiro
1 ⚽
M
Casemiro
1 ⚽
M
16
A. Diallo
45'
M
A. Diallo
45'
M
8
Bruno Fernandes
1 👟
M
Bruno Fernandes
1 👟
M
19
B. Mbeumo
74'
M
B. Mbeumo
74'
M
30
B. Šeško
1 ⚽
88'
F
B. Šeško
1 ⚽
88'
F
Bench
11
J. Zirkzee
8'
F
7
Mason Mount
16'
M
3
N. Mazraoui
45'
D
1
C. Kelleher
G
23
K. Lewis-Potter
D
22
N. Collins
D
4
S. van den Berg
D
33
M. Kayode
D
8
M. Jensen
1 ⚽
M
18
Y. Yarmolyuk
M
7
K. Schade
73'
M
24
M. Damsgaard
M
M. Damsgaard
M
19
D. Ouattara
M
9
Thiago
F
Thiago
F
Bench
2
A. Hickey
D
20
K. Ajer
D
Best on the pitch
Casemiro
M · Manchester
9.50
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 49 pass
D · Manchester
8.20
1 👟
2 shots
· 37 pass
K. Mainoo
M · Manchester
7.90
· 56 pass
Bruno Fernandes
M · Manchester
7.90
1 👟
· 47 pass
M. Jensen
M · Brentford
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 92 pass
G · Manchester
7.50
· 28 pass
Manchester United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| L. Shaw | D | 73 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 22% | 5 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 8.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 37 | 33% | 2 | — | — | |
| D. Dalot | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| K. Mainoo | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 56 | 48% | 4 | — | — |
| Casemiro | M | 90 | 9.50 | 1 | — | 3 | 49 | 42% | 11 | — | — |
| A. Diallo | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | 1 | — | 47 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Mbeumo | M | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Šeško | F | 88 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Zirkzee | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mason Mount | M | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| N. Mazraoui | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
Brentford — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Kelleher | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| K. Lewis-Potter | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | — | — | — |
| N. Collins | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. van den Berg | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 42% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Kayode | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Jensen | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 92 | 78% | — | — | — |
| Y. Yarmolyuk | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 65 | 59% | 3 | — | — |
| K. Schade | M | 73 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| M. Damsgaard | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 77 | 68% | — | — | — |
| D. Ouattara | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Thiago | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester United vs Brentford?
The final score was Manchester United 2–1 Brentford.
What did the model predict before Manchester United vs Brentford?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Manchester United win, 26% to a draw, and 24% to an Brentford win.