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Manchester United - Brighton

EFL Cup September 16, 2026 21:00 Old Trafford, Manchester
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 14.6°C 💨 15 km/h 🌧️ 21% · Manchester
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.14%
Win
Manchester United
24.0%
Draw
39.86%
Win
Brighton
3.3
Expected xG
3.78

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (6.55%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 24%
2 40%
Double Chance
1X 60%
X2 64%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 71%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Brighton a 39% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Manchester United. Expected goals are 3.3 for Manchester United and 3.8 for Brighton (total 7.1), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 6.55% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Manchester United have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Brighton.

Season Stats

Manchester United
0W 1D 0L
Brighton
2W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
4.0
2.0
Conceded
0.7
9.0
Shots OT
9.0
4.0
Corners
4.3
70%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
67%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
67%
Based on the last 3 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Manchester United Brighton →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5%
1 0.3% 1.1% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 1.8%
2 0.5% 1.7% 3.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.0%
3 0.5% 1.9% 3.6% 4.5% 4.3% 3.2%
4 0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.7%
5 0.3% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1.8%

Recent form

D Grimsby 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 22%
L Arsenal 2–0
W Barnsley 0–6
W Oxford United 0–6
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Manchester United Manchester United
Attack
54
Defence
60
Form
61
Brighton Brighton
Attack
62
Defence
75
Form
64
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Manchester United vs Brighton?
The model gives Manchester United a 36% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 39% for an Brighton win.
How many goals are expected in Manchester United vs Brighton?
Expected goals: Manchester United 3.3, Brighton 3.8 (total 7.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United vs Brighton?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.55%.