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League One · Regular Season - 3 August 30, 2026 16:00 One Call Stadium, Mansfield
Mansfield Town
#10 · 18 pts
5 – 2
Final score
Luton
#8 · 20 pts
N. Moriah-Welsh (ast. J. Russell) 17'
N. Moriah-Welsh (ast. R. Hendry) 28'
L. Reed (ast. N. Moriah-Welsh) 45'
J. Russell 47'
J. Russell 56'
(pen.) 78' N. Wells
90'+2 N. Wells
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luton a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Mansfield Town 33%). The final result was Mansfield Town 5–2 Luton. In 2 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Luton.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
3
1.24
Actual xG
1.23
2
Saves
1
43%
Possession
57%
4
Corners
7
14
Tackles
12
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
L. Reed
8'
⚽N. Moriah-Welsh · ast. J. Russell
17'
26'
I. Jones
⚽N. Moriah-Welsh · ast. R. Hendry
28'
R. Sweeney
45'+2
⚽L. Reed · ast. N. Moriah-Welsh
45'
46'
J. Johnson / I. Jones ↕
46'
H. Ashby / K. Naismith ↕
46'
B. Benagr / E. Lawrence ↕
⚽J. Russell
47'
↕ L. Reed / E. Hewitt
53'
↕ R. Sweeney / F. Blake-Tracy
53'
⚽J. Russell
56'
62'
N. Wells / C. Marshall ↕
62'
G. Kodua / J. Donley ↕
64'
G. Kodua
↕ J. Russell / D. McGoldrick
68'
↕ M. Smith / R. Oates
68'
K. Knoyle
77'
78'
(pen.) N. Wells⚽
↕ K. Knoyle / L. Bolton
85'
90'+2
N. Wells⚽
R. Hendry
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
33.9%
Mansfield ←
31.38%
X
34.73%
Luton
we assigned to the actual result (Mansfield Town) 33.9% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mansfield
1.72
1.24
-0.49
Luton
1.81
1.23
-0.58
xG dominance was balanced (1.24 – 1.23). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Huddersfield Huddersfield 12 25
2 Stockport County Stockport County 13 23
3 Oxford United Oxford United 11 22
4 Bradford Bradford 12 22
5 Plymouth Plymouth 13 22
6 Reading Reading 12 21
7 Cambridge United Cambridge United 13 21
8 Luton Luton 12 20
9 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 12 19
10 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 11 18
11 Leicester Leicester 12 18
12 Burton Albion Burton Albion 13 17
13 Stevenage Stevenage 11 15
14 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 12 15
15 Wycombe Wycombe 12 15
16 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 12 14
17 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 12 13
18 Doncaster Doncaster 12 12
19 Notts County Notts County 11 11
20 Blackpool Blackpool 11 11
21 Peterborough Peterborough 12 10
22 Bromley Bromley 12 9
23 Barnsley Barnsley 11 8
24 Wigan Wigan 12 7
Lineups
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
1 L. Roberts L. Roberts G 7.50
5 R. Sweeney R. Sweeney 53' D 6.30
23 A. Oshilaja A. Oshilaja D 6.70
2 K. Knoyle K. Knoyle 85' D 6.20
25 L. Reed L. Reed 1 ⚽ 53' M 7.30
3 S. McLaughlin S. McLaughlin M 7.20
16 L. Thompson L. Thompson M 6.60
13 J. Russell J. Russell 2 ⚽ 1 👟 68' M 10.00
22 N. Moriah-Welsh N. Moriah-Welsh 2 ⚽ 1 👟 M 10.00
14 M. Smith M. Smith 68' F 6.70
24 R. Hendry R. Hendry 1 👟 F 7.50
Bench
17 D. McGoldrick D. McGoldrick 23' F 6.30
4 E. Hewitt E. Hewitt 38' D 6.20
20 F. Blake-Tracy F. Blake-Tracy 38' D 6.70
7 L. Akins L. Akins F
8 L. Bolton L. Bolton 6' D
39 O. Dodgson O. Dodgson D
18 R. Oates R. Oates 23' F 6.50
Luton Luton 4-1-4-1
24 Joshua Keeley Joshua Keeley G 4.60
3 K. Naismith K. Naismith 45' D 5.90
6 G. Johnston G. Johnston D 6.50
2 H. Odoffin H. Odoffin D 6.00
25 I. Jones I. Jones 45' D 6.20
8 L. Walsh L. Walsh M 7.20
11 Emilio Lawrence Emilio Lawrence 45' M 6.00
45 K. Palmer K. Palmer M 5.90
10 J. Donley J. Donley 62' M 5.90
7 J. Richards J. Richards M 6.30
9 C. Marshall C. Marshall 62' F 6.20
Bench
31 B. Benagr B. Benagr 46' D 6.00
30 G. Kodua G. Kodua 29' F 6.20
33 H. Ashby H. Ashby 46' D 5.90
12 J. Johnson J. Johnson 46' D 6.20
1 J. Shea J. Shea G
5 M. Andersen M. Andersen D
21 N. Wells N. Wells 2 ⚽ 29' F 6.90
Best on the pitch
N. Moriah-Welsh
N. Moriah-Welsh
M · Mansfield
10.00
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 35 pass
J. Russell
J. Russell
M · Mansfield
10.00
2 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots · 21 pass
L. Roberts
L. Roberts
G · Mansfield
7.50
· 24 pass
R. Hendry
R. Hendry
F · Mansfield
7.50
1 👟
· 37 pass
L. Reed
L. Reed
M · Mansfield
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 26 pass
L. Walsh
L. Walsh
M · Luton
7.20
· 55 pass
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Roberts G 91 7.50 — — — 24 17% — — —
R. Sweeney D 53 6.30 — — — 19 13% 1 1 —
A. Oshilaja D 91 6.70 — — — 30 20% 2 — —
K. Knoyle D 85 6.20 — — 1 17 16% 1 1 —
L. Reed M 53 7.30 1 — 1 26 22% — 1 —
S. McLaughlin M 91 7.20 — — — 32 24% — — —
L. Thompson M 91 6.60 — — — 27 22% 2 — —
J. Russell M 68 10.00 2 1 4 21 17% 2 — —
N. Moriah-Welsh M 91 10.00 2 1 3 35 25% 2 — —
M. Smith F 68 6.70 — — 1 22 14% 1 — —
R. Hendry F 91 7.50 — 1 — 37 29% 2 — —
D. McGoldrick F 23 6.30 — — 2 6 2% — — —
E. Hewitt D 38 6.20 — — — 5 4% — — —
F. Blake-Tracy D 38 6.70 — — — 11 7% 1 — —
L. Bolton D 6 — — — — — — — — —
R. Oates F 23 6.50 — — — 4 4% — — —
Luton Luton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Joshua Keeley G 91 4.60 — — — 48 38% — — —
K. Naismith D 45 5.90 — — — 21 16% — — —
G. Johnston D 91 6.50 — — — 64 56% 2 — —
H. Odoffin D 91 6.00 — — 1 61 52% 3 — —
I. Jones D 45 6.20 — — — 23 21% 1 1 —
L. Walsh M 91 7.20 — — — 55 49% 1 — —
Emilio Lawrence M 45 6.00 — — 1 4 4% — — —
K. Palmer M 91 5.90 — — 2 40 29% 1 — —
J. Donley M 62 5.90 — — — 15 8% — — —
J. Richards M 91 6.30 — — 1 35 24% 2 — —
C. Marshall F 62 6.20 — — — 11 5% 1 — —
B. Benagr D 46 6.00 — — — 5 4% — — —
G. Kodua F 29 6.20 — — — 7 5% 1 1 —
H. Ashby D 46 5.90 — — — 22 19% — — —
J. Johnson D 46 6.20 — — — 21 16% — — —
N. Wells F 29 6.90 2 — 2 7 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mansfield Town vs Luton?
The final score was Mansfield Town 5–2 Luton.
What did the model predict before Mansfield Town vs Luton?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Mansfield Town win, 31% to a draw, and 34% to an Luton win.