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League One · Regular Season - 11 October 15, 2026 21:00 One Call Stadium, Mansfield
Mansfield Town
#10 · 18 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Oxford United
#3 · 22 pts
Michael Smith 82'
34' (ast. Siriki Dembele) Luka Lynch
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Oxford United a 36% win probability (draw 31%, Mansfield Town 32%). The final result was Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford United.

Match statistics
24
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
2
3.58
Actual xG
0.83
1
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
11
Corners
3
21
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh
14'
22'
Peter Kioso
34'
ast. Siriki Dembele · Luka Lynch⚽
↕ George Abbott / Stephen McLaughlin
45'
Jonathan Russell
54'
59'
Mo Missanga / Luka Lynch ↕
59'
Gatlin O Donkor / Louie Sibley ↕
↕ Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh / Tyler Roberts
61'
72'
Gatlin O Donkor
↕ Ryan Sweeney / Frazer Blake-Tracy
73'
↕ Jonathan Russell / Regan·Hendry
73'
75'
Peter Kioso
77'
Jack Currie / Mark Harris ↕
↕ Elliott Hewitt / George Maris
79'
80'
Sam Long / Siriki Dembele ↕
⚽Michael Smith
82'
84'
Gatlin O Donkor
Pre-match prediction
32.48%
Mansfield
31.26%
X ←
36.26%
Oxford
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.26% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mansfield
1.04
3.58
+2.54
Oxford
1.31
0.83
-0.48
Mansfield Town dominated by xG (3.58 vs 0.83). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Huddersfield Huddersfield 12 25
2 Stockport County Stockport County 13 23
3 Oxford United Oxford United 11 22
4 Bradford Bradford 12 22
5 Plymouth Plymouth 13 22
6 Reading Reading 12 21
7 Cambridge United Cambridge United 13 21
8 Luton Luton 12 20
9 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 12 19
10 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 11 18
11 Leicester Leicester 12 18
12 Burton Albion Burton Albion 13 17
13 Stevenage Stevenage 11 15
14 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 12 15
15 Wycombe Wycombe 12 15
16 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 12 14
17 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 12 13
18 Doncaster Doncaster 12 12
19 Notts County Notts County 11 11
20 Blackpool Blackpool 11 11
21 Peterborough Peterborough 12 10
22 Bromley Bromley 12 9
23 Barnsley Barnsley 11 8
24 Wigan Wigan 12 7
Lineups
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
1 L. Roberts L. Roberts G 5.93
5 R. Sweeney R. Sweeney 73' D 6.51
23 A. Oshilaja A. Oshilaja D 6.24
4 E. Hewitt E. Hewitt 79' D 6.54
25 L. Reed L. Reed M 7.20
16 L. Thompson L. Thompson M 6.03
33 G. Abbott G. Abbott 45' M 6.00
13 J. Russell J. Russell 73' M 6.11
22 N. Moriah-Welsh N. Moriah-Welsh 61' M 6.26
18 R. Oates R. Oates F 6.57
14 M. Smith M. Smith 1 ⚽ F 7.82
Bench
20 F. Blake-Tracy F. Blake-Tracy 17' D 6.20
10 G. Maris G. Maris 11' M 6.42
9 J. Bowery J. Bowery D 0.00
2 K. Knoyle K. Knoyle D 0.00
24 R. Hendry R. Hendry 17' M 6.31
3 S. McLaughlin S. McLaughlin 45' D 7.17
19 T. Roberts T. Roberts 29' F 6.68
Oxford United Oxford United 4-2-3-1
1 J. Cumming J. Cumming G 6.04
15 B. Spencer B. Spencer D 6.84
3 C. Brown C. Brown D 7.40
6 M. Helik M. Helik D 6.89
30 P. Kioso P. Kioso 75' D 5.75
32 L. Sibley L. Sibley 59' M 5.79
8 C. Brannagan C. Brannagan M 6.88
23 S. Dembélé S. Dembélé 1 👟 80' M 7.19
4 Kai Andrews Kai Andrews M 6.67
20 L. Lynch L. Lynch 1 ⚽ 59' M 7.45
9 M. Harris M. Harris 77' F 6.48
Bench
19 G. O'Donkor G. O'Donkor 25' F 5.70
26 J. Currie J. Currie 13' D 6.54
27 L. Snowden L. Snowden F 0.00
57 M. Missanga M. Missanga 31' F 6.79
13 S. Eastwood S. Eastwood G 0.00
2 S. Long S. Long 10' D 6.66
11 T. Goodrham T. Goodrham F 0.00
Best on the pitch
M. Smith
M. Smith
F · Mansfield
7.82
1 ⚽
4 shots · 12 pass
L. Lynch
L. Lynch
M · Oxford
7.45
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
C. Brown
C. Brown
D · Oxford
7.40
1 shots · 43 pass
L. Reed
L. Reed
M · Mansfield
7.20
2 shots · 60 pass
S. Dembélé
S. Dembélé
M · Oxford
7.19
1 👟
1 shots · 20 pass
S. McLaughlin
S. McLaughlin
D · Mansfield
7.17
2 shots · 15 pass
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Roberts G 90 5.93 — — 0 24 10% 0 — —
R. Sweeney D 73 6.51 — — 0 31 22% 3 — —
A. Oshilaja D 90 6.24 — — 1 36 25% 1 — —
E. Hewitt D 79 6.54 — — 0 16 10% 4 — —
L. Reed M 90 7.20 — — 2 60 54% 2 — —
L. Thompson M 90 6.03 — — 2 37 26% 0 — —
G. Abbott M 45 6.00 — — 1 26 16% 0 — —
J. Russell M 73 6.11 — — 3 24 18% 2 1 —
N. Moriah-Welsh M 61 6.26 — — 1 16 8% 1 1 —
R. Oates F 90 6.57 — — 3 19 14% 3 — —
M. Smith F 90 7.82 1 — 4 12 7% 0 — —
F. Blake-Tracy D 17 6.20 — — 2 18 17% 1 — —
G. Maris M 11 6.42 — — 0 7 7% 0 — —
R. Hendry M 17 6.31 — — 1 12 12% 0 — —
S. McLaughlin D 45 7.17 — — 2 15 12% 4 — —
T. Roberts F 29 6.68 — — 2 4 3% 0 — —
Oxford United Oxford United — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Cumming G 90 6.04 — — 0 49 18% 0 — —
B. Spencer D 90 6.84 — — 0 37 27% 5 — —
C. Brown D 90 7.40 — — 1 43 39% 2 — —
M. Helik D 90 6.89 — — 0 41 33% 0 — —
P. Kioso D 75 5.75 — — 0 42 31% 2 — 1
L. Sibley M 59 5.79 — — 0 21 11% 0 — —
C. Brannagan M 90 6.88 — — 2 50 43% 1 — —
S. Dembélé M 80 7.19 — 1 1 20 16% 0 — —
Kai Andrews M 90 6.67 — — 0 22 20% 2 — —
L. Lynch M 59 7.45 1 — 1 16 13% 1 — —
M. Harris F 77 6.48 — — 1 26 20% 1 — —
G. O'Donkor F 25 5.70 — — 1 7 5% 0 — 1
J. Currie D 13 6.54 — — 0 1 1% 1 — —
M. Missanga F 31 6.79 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
S. Long D 10 6.66 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mansfield Town vs Oxford United?
The final score was Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford United.
What did the model predict before Mansfield Town vs Oxford United?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Mansfield Town win, 31% to a draw, and 36% to an Oxford United win.