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← Serie B
Serie B · Regular Season - 35 April 18, 2026 15:00 Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Mantova
#3 · 11 pts
0 – 2
Final score
Avellino
#9 · 7 pts
63' (ast. L. Palmiero) F. Missori
86' (ast. A. Izzo) A. Favilli
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mantova a 49% win probability (draw 31%, Avellino 19%). The final result was Mantova 0–2 Avellino. In 1 previous meetings, Mantova have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Avellino.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
3
1.39
Actual xG
0.36
1
Saves
3
66%
Possession
34%
10
Corners
2
14
Tackles
24
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
46'
P. Enrici / T. Biasci ↕
46'
F. Missori / A. Fontanarosa ↕
↕ F. Ruocco / N. Buso
57'
↕ T. Maggioni / N. Radaelli
57'
63'
ast. L. Palmiero · F. Missori⚽
68'
A. Favilli / C. Patierno ↕
75'
G. Tutino / R. Russo ↕
76'
M. Besaggio / M. Palumbo ↕
↕ A. Castellini / T. Marras
76'
↕ D. Wieser / C. Falletti
81'
86'
ast. A. Izzo · A. Favilli⚽
A. Dembele
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
49.21%
Mantova
31.75%
X
19.04%
Avellino ←
we assigned to the actual result (Avellino) 19.04% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mantova
1.33
1.39
+0.06
Avellino
0.71
0.36
-0.35
Mantova dominated by xG (1.39 vs 0.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palermo Palermo 5 13
2 Sudtirol Sudtirol 5 11
3 Mantova Mantova 5 11
4 Modena Modena 5 10
5 Ascoli Ascoli 5 10
6 Padova Padova 5 7
7 Benevento Benevento 5 7
8 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 5 7
9 Avellino Avellino 5 7
10 Cesena Cesena 5 7
11 Pisa Pisa 5 7
12 Arezzo Arezzo 5 6
13 Empoli Empoli 5 6
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 5 5
15 Cremonese Cremonese 5 5
16 Vicenza Virtus Vicenza Virtus 5 5
17 Sampdoria Sampdoria 5 4
18 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 5 3
19 Catanzaro Catanzaro 5 3
20 Carrarese Carrarese 5 1
Lineups
Mantova Mantova 3-4-2-1
24
G 6.20
27 A. Castellini A. Castellini 76' D 6.90
29 S. Cella S. Cella D 6.60
3 Ali Dembélé Ali Dembélé D 7.30
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia F. Benaissa-Yahia M 7.20
10 D. Wieser D. Wieser 81' M 6.30
80 R. Kouda R. Kouda M 6.30
96 T. Maggioni T. Maggioni 58' M 6.30
19 F. Ruocco F. Ruocco 58' F 6.20
30 D. Bragantini D. Bragantini F 7.90
9 L. Mancuso L. Mancuso F 6.50
Bench
36 F. Paoletti F. Paoletti M
77 N. Buso N. Buso 32' F 6.30
17 N. Radaelli N. Radaelli 32' D 6.30
23 Tommaso Marras Tommaso Marras 14' F 7.00
Avellino Avellino 4-3-1-2
1 A. Iannarilli A. Iannarilli G 8.30
63 A. Fontanarosa A. Fontanarosa 45' D 6.70
4 A. Izzo A. Izzo 1 👟 D 8.00
44 L. Šimić L. Šimić D 8.30
29 T. Cancellotti T. Cancellotti D 7.30
24 D. Sounas D. Sounas M 7.30
20 M. Palumbo M. Palumbo 76' M 6.60
6 L. Palmiero L. Palmiero 1 👟 M 7.90
14 T. Biasci T. Biasci 45' M 6.50
10 R. Russo R. Russo 76' F 6.70
9 Cosimo Patierno Cosimo Patierno 68' F 6.00
Bench
99 A. Favilli A. Favilli 1 ⚽ 22' F 7.50
2 F. Missori F. Missori 1 ⚽ 45' D 8.50
16 J. Kumi J. Kumi M
39 M. Besaggio M. Besaggio 14' M 6.30
94 Roberto Insigne Roberto Insigne F
Best on the pitch
F. Missori
F. Missori
D · Avellino
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 10 pass
A. Iannarilli
A. Iannarilli
G · Avellino
8.30
· 33 pass
L. Šimić
L. Šimić
D · Avellino
8.30
· 22 pass
A. Izzo
A. Izzo
D · Avellino
8.00
1 👟
· 41 pass
D. Bragantini
D. Bragantini
F · Mantova
7.90
1 shots · 37 pass
L. Palmiero
L. Palmiero
M · Avellino
7.90
1 👟
· 36 pass
Mantova Mantova — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 19 14% — — —
A. Castellini D 76 6.90 — — — 79 66% 1 — —
S. Cella D 90 6.60 — — — 75 67% 1 — —
Ali Dembélé D 90 7.30 — — — 64 51% 4 1 —
F. Benaissa-Yahia M 90 7.20 — — — 65 55% 1 — —
D. Wieser M 81 6.30 — — 1 41 37% 1 — —
R. Kouda M 90 6.30 — — — 47 39% 1 — —
T. Maggioni M 58 6.30 — — — 34 27% — — —
F. Ruocco F 58 6.20 — — 2 17 15% — — —
D. Bragantini F 90 7.90 — — 1 37 33% — — —
L. Mancuso F 90 6.50 — — 1 22 20% — — —
N. Buso F 32 6.30 — — 1 11 8% — — —
N. Radaelli D 32 6.30 — — — 26 20% 2 — —
Tommaso Marras F 14 7.00 — — — 12 7% 3 — —
Avellino Avellino — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Iannarilli G 90 8.30 — — — 33 10% — — —
A. Fontanarosa D 45 6.70 — — — 26 20% — — —
A. Izzo D 90 8.00 — 1 — 41 34% 4 — —
L. Šimić D 90 8.30 — — — 22 15% 5 — —
T. Cancellotti D 90 7.30 — — — 27 20% 3 — —
D. Sounas M 90 7.30 — — 1 29 25% 6 — —
M. Palumbo M 76 6.60 — — — 19 15% — — —
L. Palmiero M 90 7.90 — 1 — 36 29% 2 — —
T. Biasci M 45 6.50 — — — 8 8% — — —
R. Russo F 76 6.70 — — 1 15 11% 1 — —
Cosimo Patierno F 68 6.00 — — — 12 6% 1 — —
A. Favilli F 22 7.50 1 — 1 9 5% — — —
F. Missori D 45 8.50 1 — 1 10 8% 1 — —
M. Besaggio M 14 6.30 — — — 1 1% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mantova vs Avellino?
The final score was Mantova 0–2 Avellino.
What did the model predict before Mantova vs Avellino?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Mantova win, 31% to a draw, and 19% to an Avellino win.