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Mara Sugar - AFC Leopards

Premier League September 18, 2026 14:00
Mara Sugar
#16 · 0 pts
vs
AFC Leopards
#5 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.33%
Win
Mara Sugar
33.33%
Draw
33.33%
Win
AFC Leopards
0.78
Expected xG
1.11

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (13.66%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 33%
2 33%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 67%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mara Sugar a 33% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 33% for AFC Leopards. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mara Sugar and 1.1 for AFC Leopards (total 1.9), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.66% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Mara Sugar have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for AFC Leopards.

Season Stats

Mara Sugar
6W 5D 4L
AFC Leopards
9W 0D 6L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
1.4
0.7
Conceded
1.1
Percentages
40%
O 1.5
67%
33%
O 2.5
53%
40%
BTTS
47%
47%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
30%
BTTS
Mara Sugar
5W 2D 3L · at home
AFC Leopards
6W 1D 3L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.5
0.7
Conceded
0.8
50%
Win %
60%
70%
Win or Draw
70%
40%
O 1.5
70%
30%
O 2.5
40%
20%
O 3.5
20%
30%
BTTS
30%
50%
Clean Sht
60%
40%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Mara Sugar AFC Leopards →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.2% 16.8% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.8% 13.1% 7.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 4.6% 5.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
L Murang'a SEAL 2–1
D GOR Mahia 0–0
L Mathare United 0–1
W Shabana 1–0
L AFC Leopards 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
AFC Leopards AFC Leopards
L Bidco United 1–2
L APS Bomet 2–1
W Homeboyz 1–2
W Ulinzi Stars 0–2
W Mara Sugar 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
Attack
9
Defence
44
Form
27
AFC Leopards AFC Leopards
Attack
16
Defence
37
Form
29
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Mara Sugar
0
Draw
1
AFC Leopards
9 May 2026 Premier League 1–2
8 Nov 2025 Premier League 2–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Mathare United Mathare United 0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 0 0
3 Tusker Tusker 0 0
4 GOR Mahia GOR Mahia 0 0
5 AFC Leopards AFC Leopards 0 0
6 KCB KCB 0 0
7 Posta Rangers FC Posta Rangers FC 0 0
8 Bandari Bandari 0 0
9 Homeboyz Homeboyz 0 0
10 Police Police 0 0
11 Migori Youth Migori Youth 0 0
12 Shabana Shabana 0 0
13 APS Bomet APS Bomet 0 0
14 Murang'a SEAL Murang'a SEAL 0 0
15 Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 0 0
16 Mara Sugar Mara Sugar 0 0
17 Nairobi United Nairobi United 0 0
18 3K 3K 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards?
The model gives Mara Sugar a 33% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 33% for an AFC Leopards win.
How many goals are expected in Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards?
Expected goals: Mara Sugar 0.8, AFC Leopards 1.1 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.66%.