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Mara Sugar - Kenya Police

Premier League November 26, 2026 13:00
Mara Sugar
#11 · 6 pts
vs
Kenya Police
#5 · 8 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.85%
Win
Mara Sugar
36.42%
Draw
31.74%
Win
Kenya Police
0.68
Expected xG
0.68

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (20.74%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 36%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 68%
12 64%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 47%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mara Sugar a 31% win probability, against 36% for a draw and 31% for Kenya Police. Expected goals are 0.7 for Mara Sugar and 0.7 for Kenya Police (total 1.4), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 20.74% probability.

Season Stats

Mara Sugar
6W 5D 4L
Kenya Police
2W 2D 1L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
0.8
0.9
Conceded
0.6
Percentages
47%
O 1.5
40%
40%
O 2.5
20%
47%
BTTS
40%
47%
Clean Sht
60%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
5%
O 3.5
37%
BTTS
Mara Sugar
6W 3D 1L · at home
Kenya Police
1W 2D 0L · away
1.1
gls/g
0.7
0.5
Conceded
0.3
60%
Win %
33%
90%
Win or Draw
100%
40%
O 1.5
33%
40%
O 2.5
0%
10%
O 3.5
0%
40%
BTTS
33%
50%
Clean Sht
67%
40%
Failed to Score
33%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Mara Sugar Kenya Police →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 25.6% 17.4% 5.9% 1.3% 0.2% —
1 17.5% 11.9% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% —
2 5.9% 4.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% —
3 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% — —
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
W Migori Youth 2–1
L Tusker 3–1
D AFC Leopards 0–0
D Ulinzi Stars 0–0
W Mombasa Elite 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
Kenya Police Kenya Police
W Shabana 0–1
W Ulinzi Stars 1–0
D Mombasa Elite 0–0
L AFC Leopards 1–2
D Migori Youth 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 40%

Playing profile

Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
Attack
17
Defence
61
Form
36
Kenya Police Kenya Police
Attack
20
Defence
86
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 KCB KCB 6 13
2 GOR Mahia GOR Mahia 5 12
3 AFC Leopards AFC Leopards 5 9
4 Shabana Shabana 6 9
5 Kenya Police Kenya Police 5 8
6 3K 3K 5 8
7 Murang'a SEAL Murang'a SEAL 5 7
8 Tusker Tusker 3 6
9 Police Police 1 1
9 Migori Youth Migori Youth 4 6
10 APS Bomet APS Bomet 6 6
11 Mara Sugar Mara Sugar 5 6
12 Mathare United Mathare United 5 5
13 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 5 5
14 Nairobi United Nairobi United 5 4
15 Bandari Bandari 5 4
16 Homeboyz Homeboyz 4 4
17 Posta Rangers FC Posta Rangers FC 5 4
18 Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 6 1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Kenya Police?
The model gives Mara Sugar a 31% win probability, 36% for a draw, and 31% for an Kenya Police win.
How many goals are expected in Mara Sugar vs Kenya Police?
Expected goals: Mara Sugar 0.7, Kenya Police 0.7 (total 1.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in Mara Sugar vs Kenya Police?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 20.74%.