Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 17:15 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille

#12 · 3 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Lille

#1 · 10 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Marseille a 46% win probability (draw 24%, Lille 28%). The final result was Marseille 1–2 Lille. In 1 previous meetings, Marseille have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Lille.

Match statistics

3

Shots on target

4

0.60

Actual xG

0.97

55%

Possession

45%

6

Corners

4

Pre-match prediction

46.54%

Marseille

24.79%

X

28.67%

Lille ←

we assigned to the actual result (Lille) 28.67% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Marseille

1.60

0.60

-1.0

Lille

1.18

0.97

-0.22

Lille dominated by xG (0.97 vs 0.60). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lille	4	10
2	Monaco	4	10
3	Rennes	4	10
4	Lyon	4	8
5	Paris FC	4	8
6	Strasbourg	4	7
7	Stade Brestois 29	3	5
8	Lorient	4	5
9	Lens	4	4
10	Angers	4	4
11	Estac Troyes	4	4
12	Marseille	4	3
13	Le Mans	4	3
14	Auxerre	4	3
15	Paris Saint Germain	3	2
16	Le Havre	4	2
17	Toulouse	4	2
18	Nice	4	2