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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31 April 26, 2026 20:45 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
Marseille
#8 · 12 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Nice
#10 · 11 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Marseille, result Draw
P. Hojbjerg (ast. T. Nnadi) 66'
(pen.) 88' E. Wahi
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Marseille a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Nice 12%). The final result was Marseille 1–1 Nice. In 2 previous meetings, Marseille have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Nice.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
4
6
Shots on target
2
2.08
Actual xG
1.46
1
Saves
5
69%
Possession
31%
7
Corners
1
14
Tackles
12
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Emerson
29'
Facundo Medina
44'
44'
Elye Wahi
46'
S. Diop / M. Sanson ↕
↕ Emerson / T. Mmadi
62'
↕ A. Vermeeren / M. Greenwood
63'
⚽P. Hojbjerg · ast. T. Nnadi
66'
67'
K. Boudache / M. Cho ↕
↕ T. Nnadi / N. Kamissoko
80'
↕ Q. Timber / H. Abdelli
81'
81'
A. Abdi / M. Bard ↕
81'
Kevin / S. Abdul Samed ↕
Timothy Weah
86'
Geronimo Rulli
87'
88'
(pen.) E. Wahi⚽
90'+1
C. Vanhoutte / E. Wahi ↕
Pre-match prediction
72.07%
Marseille
15.82%
X ←
12.1%
Nice
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 15.82% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Marseille
2.64
2.08
-0.56
Nice
0.78
1.46
+0.68
Marseille dominated by xG (2.08 vs 1.46). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 17
2 Rennes Rennes 8 16
3 Lille Lille 8 15
4 Monaco Monaco 8 15
5 Lyon Lyon 8 14
6 Paris FC Paris FC 8 14
7 Lens Lens 8 13
8 Marseille Marseille 8 12
9 Lorient Lorient 8 12
10 Nice Nice 8 11
11 Toulouse Toulouse 8 10
12 Auxerre Auxerre 8 10
13 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 8 9
14 Angers Angers 8 8
15 Le Mans Le Mans 8 7
16 Strasbourg Strasbourg 8 7
17 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 8 5
18 Le Havre Le Havre 8 2
Lineups
Marseille Marseille 3-5-1-1
1 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 6.20
32 F. Medina F. Medina D 6.90
5 L. Balerdi L. Balerdi D 7.50
28 B. Pavard B. Pavard D 6.60
33 Emerson Emerson 62' M 6.60
18 A. Vermeeren A. Vermeeren 63' M 6.70
23 P. Højbjerg P. Højbjerg 1 ⚽ M 8.30
6 T. Nnadi T. Nnadi 1 👟 80' M 7.20
22 T. Weah T. Weah M 7.90
27 Q. Timber Q. Timber 81' F 6.90
17 P. Aubameyang P. Aubameyang F 6.60
Bench
78 Ange Lago Ange Lago F
11 E. Nwaneri E. Nwaneri M
8 H. Abdelli H. Abdelli 9' M 6.50
10 M. Greenwood M. Greenwood 27' F 6.70
Nice Nice 5-4-1
80 Y. Diouf Y. Diouf G 6.50
26 M. Bard M. Bard 81' D 6.90
37 Kojo Peprah Oppong Kojo Peprah Oppong D 6.60
28 Abdulay Bah Abdulay Bah D 7.30
33 A. Mendy A. Mendy D 6.20
92 J. Clauss J. Clauss D 6.90
8 M. Sanson M. Sanson 45' M 6.20
99 Salis Abdul Samed Salis Abdul Samed 81' M 6.20
6 H. Boudaoui H. Boudaoui M 7.30
25 M. Cho M. Cho 67' M 6.50
11 E. Wahi E. Wahi 1 ⚽ 89' F 6.90
Bench
2 A. Abdi A. Abdi 9' D 6.90
24 C. Vanhoutte C. Vanhoutte 8' M 6.70
4 Dante Dante D
39 D. Coulibaly D. Coulibaly M
32 K. Boudache K. Boudache 23' F 6.70
90 Kevin Carlos Kevin Carlos 9' F 6.30
31 M. Dupé M. Dupé G
10 S. Diop S. Diop 45' M 6.60
20 T. Louchet T. Louchet M
Best on the pitch
P. Højbjerg
P. Højbjerg
M · Marseille
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 97 pass
T. Weah
T. Weah
M · Marseille
7.90
1 shots · 52 pass
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
D · Marseille
7.50
6 shots · 82 pass
H. Boudaoui
H. Boudaoui
M · Nice
7.30
· 30 pass
Abdulay Bah
Abdulay Bah
D · Nice
7.30
· 25 pass
T. Nnadi
T. Nnadi
M · Marseille
7.20
1 👟
1 shots · 54 pass
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Rulli G 90 6.20 — — 1 20 15% — 1 —
F. Medina D 90 6.90 — — — 86 78% — 1 —
L. Balerdi D 90 7.50 — — 6 82 79% 4 — —
B. Pavard D 90 6.60 — — — 81 75% 1 — —
Emerson M 62 6.60 — — — 39 34% — 1 —
A. Vermeeren M 63 6.70 — — 1 34 29% 2 — —
P. Højbjerg M 90 8.30 1 — 2 97 80% 2 — —
T. Nnadi M 80 7.20 — 1 1 54 47% 1 — —
T. Weah M 90 7.90 — — 1 52 44% 2 1 —
Q. Timber F 81 6.90 — — — 36 32% 1 — —
P. Aubameyang F 90 6.60 — — 2 27 19% 1 — —
H. Abdelli M 9 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
M. Greenwood F 27 6.70 — — 2 13 13% — — —
Nice Nice — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Y. Diouf G 90 6.50 — — — 33 12% — — —
M. Bard D 81 6.90 — — — 26 19% — — —
Kojo Peprah Oppong D 90 6.60 — — — 36 34% 1 — —
Abdulay Bah D 90 7.30 — — — 25 24% 3 — —
A. Mendy D 90 6.20 — — — 36 25% 1 — —
J. Clauss D 90 6.90 — — — 25 19% 1 — —
M. Sanson M 45 6.20 — — 1 9 6% — — —
Salis Abdul Samed M 81 6.20 — — — 20 15% — — —
H. Boudaoui M 90 7.30 — — — 30 23% 2 — —
M. Cho M 67 6.50 — — — 12 8% — — —
E. Wahi F 89 6.90 1 — 2 13 11% — 1 —
A. Abdi D 9 6.90 — — — 2 1% 1 — —
C. Vanhoutte M 8 6.70 — — — 4 2% — — —
K. Boudache F 23 6.70 — — 1 8 6% 2 — —
Kevin Carlos F 9 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
S. Diop M 45 6.60 — — — 18 14% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Marseille vs Nice?
The final score was Marseille 1–1 Nice.
What did the model predict before Marseille vs Nice?
The model assigned 72% probability to a Marseille win, 15% to a draw, and 12% to an Nice win.