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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 34 May 17, 2026 21:00 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
Marseille
#8 · 12 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Rennes
#2 · 16 pts
P. Hojbjerg (ast. M. Greenwood) 2'
A. Gouiri 10'
P. Aubameyang (ast. P. Hojbjerg) 55'
84' (ast. A. Nordin) E. Lepaul
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Marseille a 43% win probability (draw 25%, Rennes 31%). The final result was Marseille 3–1 Rennes. In 3 previous meetings, Marseille have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Rennes.

Match statistics
20
Total shots
20
11
Shots on target
6
3.01
Actual xG
2.56
4
Saves
8
45%
Possession
55%
4
Corners
11
18
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽P. Hojbjerg · ast. M. Greenwood
2'
⚽A. Gouiri
10'
46'
B. Embolo / S. Szymanski ↕
P. Hojbjerg
49'
⚽P. Aubameyang · ast. P. Hojbjerg
55'
67'
A. Nordin / M. Tamari ↕
↕ I. Paixao / A. Vermeeren
72'
A. Gouiri
76'
79'
M. Camara
79'
N. Mukiele / L. Blas ↕
↕ P. Hojbjerg / Q. Timber
82'
↕ T. Nnadi / N. Kamissoko
83'
84'
ast. A. Nordin · E. Lepaul⚽
↕ T. Weah / B. Pavard
88'
B. Pavard
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
43.14%
Marseille ←
25.08%
X
31.79%
Rennes
we assigned to the actual result (Marseille) 43.14% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Marseille
2.06
3.01
+0.95
Rennes
1.78
2.56
+0.78
Marseille dominated by xG (3.01 vs 2.56). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 17
2 Rennes Rennes 8 16
3 Lille Lille 8 15
4 Monaco Monaco 8 15
5 Lyon Lyon 8 14
6 Paris FC Paris FC 8 14
7 Lens Lens 8 13
8 Marseille Marseille 8 12
9 Lorient Lorient 8 12
10 Nice Nice 8 11
11 Toulouse Toulouse 8 10
12 Auxerre Auxerre 8 10
13 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 8 9
14 Angers Angers 8 8
15 Le Mans Le Mans 8 7
16 Strasbourg Strasbourg 8 7
17 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 8 5
18 Le Havre Le Havre 8 2
Lineups
Marseille Marseille 4-2-3-1
1 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 7.20
33 Emerson Emerson D 7.50
32 F. Medina F. Medina D 7.50
5 L. Balerdi L. Balerdi D 7.70
22 T. Weah T. Weah 88' D 6.90
23 P. Højbjerg P. Højbjerg 1 ⚽ 1 👟 82' M 9.20
6 T. Nnadi T. Nnadi 83' M 6.60
14 Igor Paixão Igor Paixão 72' M 7.20
9 A. Gouiri A. Gouiri 1 ⚽ M 7.90
10 M. Greenwood M. Greenwood 1 👟 M 8.60
17 P. Aubameyang P. Aubameyang 1 ⚽ F 7.00
Bench
78 Ange Lago Ange Lago F
18 A. Vermeeren A. Vermeeren 18' M 6.50
26 B. Nadir B. Nadir M
28 B. Pavard B. Pavard 9' D 6.60
11 E. Nwaneri E. Nwaneri M
72 Hilan Hamzaoui Slimani Hilan Hamzaoui Slimani D
12 J. de Lange J. de Lange G
71 Nouhoum Kamissoko Nouhoum Kamissoko 14' M 6.70
27 Q. Timber Q. Timber 8' M 6.50
Rennes Rennes 4-1-4-1
50 Mathys Silistrie Mathys Silistrie G 7.20
26 Q. Merlin Q. Merlin D 6.60
24 A. Rouault A. Rouault D 6.30
48 A. Ait Boudlal A. Ait Boudlal D 6.90
18 M. Nagida M. Nagida D 6.20
21 V. Rongier V. Rongier M 7.30
10 L. Blas L. Blas 79' M 6.30
45 M. Camara M. Camara M 7.00
17 S. Szymański S. Szymański 45' M 6.30
11 Mousa Tamari Mousa Tamari 67' M 6.60
9 E. Lepaul E. Lepaul 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
70 A. Nordin A. Nordin 1 👟 23' F 7.20
36 A. Seidu A. Seidu D
7 B. Embolo B. Embolo 45' F 6.50
6 D. Cissé D. Cissé M
69 H. Do Marcolino H. Do Marcolino F
60 Kilian Belazzoug Kilian Belazzoug G
3 L. Brassier L. Brassier D
77 M. Zabiri M. Zabiri F
65 N. Mukiele N. Mukiele 11' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
P. Højbjerg
P. Højbjerg
M · Marseille
9.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 55 pass
M. Greenwood
M. Greenwood
M · Marseille
8.60
1 👟
3 shots · 40 pass
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
M · Marseille
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 42 pass
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
D · Marseille
7.70
1 shots · 36 pass
Emerson
Emerson
D · Marseille
7.50
1 shots · 34 pass
F. Medina
F. Medina
D · Marseille
7.50
· 43 pass
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Rulli G 90 7.20 — — — 26 12% — — —
Emerson D 90 7.50 — — 1 34 30% 3 — —
F. Medina D 90 7.50 — — — 43 37% 3 — —
L. Balerdi D 90 7.70 — — 1 36 30% 3 — —
T. Weah D 88 6.90 — — 1 37 33% 1 — —
P. Højbjerg M 82 9.20 1 1 2 55 44% 1 1 —
T. Nnadi M 83 6.60 — — 1 30 28% 1 — —
Igor Paixão M 72 7.20 — — 4 28 27% 3 — —
A. Gouiri M 90 7.90 1 — 1 42 36% — 1 —
M. Greenwood M 90 8.60 — 1 3 40 29% 1 — —
P. Aubameyang F 90 7.00 1 — 6 18 13% — — —
A. Vermeeren M 18 6.50 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
B. Pavard D 9 6.60 — — — 3 2% — 1 —
Nouhoum Kamissoko M 14 6.70 — — — 3 3% 1 — —
Q. Timber M 8 6.50 — — — 1 1% — — —
Rennes Rennes — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mathys Silistrie G 90 7.20 — — — 25 22% — — —
Q. Merlin D 90 6.60 — — — 49 43% 1 — —
A. Rouault D 90 6.30 — — — 35 26% — — —
A. Ait Boudlal D 90 6.90 — — 2 44 40% — — —
M. Nagida D 90 6.20 — — 1 54 49% 2 — —
V. Rongier M 90 7.30 — — — 84 77% 2 — —
L. Blas M 79 6.30 — — 2 32 27% 2 — —
M. Camara M 90 7.00 — — 2 43 39% 6 1 —
S. Szymański M 45 6.30 — — — 24 17% 1 — —
Mousa Tamari M 67 6.60 — — 4 20 16% 2 — —
E. Lepaul F 90 7.20 1 — 4 16 10% — — —
A. Nordin F 23 7.20 — 1 1 19 13% 1 — —
B. Embolo F 45 6.50 — — 4 13 11% — — —
N. Mukiele F 11 6.70 — — — 6 6% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Marseille vs Rennes?
The final score was Marseille 3–1 Rennes.
What did the model predict before Marseille vs Rennes?
The model assigned 43% probability to a Marseille win, 25% to a draw, and 31% to an Rennes win.