Mathare United - Tusker
Premier League
September 18, 2026 14:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.33%
Win
Mathare United
33.33%
Draw
33.33%
Win
Tusker
0.99
0.41
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.66%)
1X2 Result
1
33%
X
33%
2
33%
Double Chance
1X
67%
X2
67%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mathare United a 33% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Tusker. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mathare United and 0.4 for Tusker (total 1.4), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.66% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Mathare United have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Tusker.
Season Stats
5W
4D
6L
5W
2D
8L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
0.7
1.2
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
40%
53%
O 2.5
13%
53%
BTTS
20%
27%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
15%
O 3.5
35%
BTTS
5W
1D
4L
· at home
3W
0D
7L
· away
1.4
gls/g
0.6
0.9
Conceded
1.2
50%
Win %
30%
60%
Win or Draw
30%
60%
O 1.5
40%
50%
O 2.5
30%
20%
O 3.5
10%
40%
BTTS
30%
40%
Clean Sht
10%
30%
Failed to Score
60%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Mathare United
Tusker →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 1 | 24.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2 | 12.1% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 3 | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | — | — | — |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Mathare United
Attack
13
Defence
33
Form
20
Tusker
Attack
5
Defence
40
Form
21
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Mathare United
|
0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Ulinzi Stars
|
0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Tusker
|
0 | 0 |
| 4 |
GOR Mahia
|
0 | 0 |
| 5 |
AFC Leopards
|
0 | 0 |
| 6 |
KCB
|
0 | 0 |
| 7 |
Posta Rangers FC
|
0 | 0 |
| 8 |
Bandari
|
0 | 0 |
| 9 |
Homeboyz
|
0 | 0 |
| 10 |
Police
|
0 | 0 |
| 11 |
Migori Youth
|
0 | 0 |
| 12 |
Shabana
|
0 | 0 |
| 13 |
APS Bomet
|
0 | 0 |
| 14 |
Murang'a SEAL
|
0 | 0 |
| 15 |
Mombasa Elite
|
0 | 0 |
| 16 |
Mara Sugar
|
0 | 0 |
| 17 |
Nairobi United
|
0 | 0 |
| 18 |
3K
|
0 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mathare United vs Tusker?
The model gives Mathare United a 33% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 33% for an Tusker win.
How many goals are expected in Mathare United vs Tusker?
Expected goals: Mathare United 1.0, Tusker 0.4 (total 1.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Mathare United vs Tusker?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.66%.