Mauritania - Burkina Faso
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
44.53%
Win
Mauritania
31.51%
Draw
23.97%
Win
Burkina Faso
1.16
0.55
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(16.5%)
1X2 Result
1
45%
X
32%
2
24%
Double Chance
1X
76%
X2
56%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mauritania a 44% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Burkina Faso. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mauritania and 0.6 for Burkina Faso (total 1.7), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.5% probability.
Season Stats
1W
0D
1L
1W
1D
0L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.0
1.5
Conceded
0.5
5.5
Shots OT
2.0
3.0
Corners
7.0
57%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
0%
100%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Mauritania
Burkina Faso →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 12.1% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 3 | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Mauritania
Attack
40
Defence
63
Form
40
Burkina Faso
Attack
24
Defence
54
Form
33
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group F
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benin
|
2 | 4 |
| 2 |
Burkina Faso
|
2 | 4 |
| 3 |
Mauritania
|
2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Central African Republic
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group F
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #2 |
| → Mauritania | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #3 | #1 |
| → Burkina Faso | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mauritania vs Burkina Faso?
The model gives Mauritania a 44% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 23% for an Burkina Faso win.
How many goals are expected in Mauritania vs Burkina Faso?
Expected goals: Mauritania 1.2, Burkina Faso 0.6 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Mauritania vs Burkina Faso?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.5%.